ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% ETH, 40% Cash .
* The November Unemployment Rate somehow stayed at 3.7%, with Nonfarm Payrolls increasing by 263k ... in the face of ramping layoffs and hiring freezes, this is pretty astonishing. The Federal Reserve has got to be wondering how the job market has remained so resilient with a dramatic slow down in demand due to a shrinking Fed balance sheet and rising federal funds rate. Though it has yet to be seen whether the narrative has changed on a potential slowdown in rate hikes starting on 12/14 (from 75bps to 50bps).
The Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry held a hearing today on the FTX collapse ; you read that correctly, this is currently the Senate committee most responsible for overseeing Crypto regulation through the independent agency CFTC (which the committee created in 1974 to handle currencies and other nonagricultural assets). SBF is said to have met with the CFTC 10 times in the past 14 months . SBF was interview by Good Morning America on 11/30 and denied improper use of customers' funds ; this will likely come back to bite him in the ass if regulators finally get around to compiling all of the evidence against him. For one, he told Andrew Ross Sorkin at the NY Times DealBook Summit that he first "really knew there was a problem on November 6th" (start at 22 minutes) , which directly contradicts a since-deleted Tweet on 11/07 assuring people that "FTX is fine. Assets are fine" and that it was just a malicious attack by a competitor . Secondly, he claims to have no idea how his parents were listed on the deed for a $16.4m property in the Bahamas that was intended for FTX staff . US House Rep Maxine Waters candidly invited SBF to participate in the US House Committee on Financial Services hearing on 12/13 .
US Treasury Bills, US Short-Term Bonds, Silver, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are up. DXY, US Long-Term Bonds, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Commodities, VIX, HSI, N100, and NI225 are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. *
Price is currently forming a minor Ascending Triangle pattern at ~$1290 as it continues to hover above $1270 minor support, the next resistance is the 50MA at ~$1333. Volume finished today's session Moderate and favored buyers (it has favored buyers in three of the past five sessions), it's currently on track to favor sellers if it closes tomorrow's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1067, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 53 after being rejected just below 55.31 resistance, the next support is the upper trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle from February 2020 at ~50. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 95 after forming a Double Top at max top (it is still trending in the 'bullish autobahn' so this isn't a bearish indicator yet). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -14, the next resistance is at 27.77. ADX is currently trending down at 31.46 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to push higher then it will likely test the 50MA at ~$1333 as resistance before potentially retesting the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$1375 as resistance . However, if Price breaks below $1270 minor support , it will likely retest ~$1100 as support before potentially retesting $1000 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1269 .
Ethereumtrade
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash.
* SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . US September Retail Sales came in at $684b , virtually unchanged from August but still 8.2% above September of last year. This strong consumer data will surely influence the Federal Reserve to continue pondering raising FFR by more than 75bps on November 2nd. The 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is 2.8% , down from 2.9% on 10/7. Preliminary results for the October UofM Consumer Sentiment Survey show an increase from 58.6 in September to 59.8 in October. Putin made more threats regarding a "global catastrophe" to NATO should they become directly involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. He also set the stage for reclosing the humanitarian corridors Russia agreed to allow Ukraine to use to transport grain and fleeing citizens; this could lead to more supply chain woes in the near future. Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD and CNYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19; 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/19.*
Price is currently testing $1270 minor support for the fifth consecutive session as it continues to trade in the largest trading zone (POC) on the chart for twenty three consecutive sessions now. Volume is currently High (moderate) and on track to favor buyers in today's session after favoring sellers in yesterday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1389, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 43 after bouncing off of the uptrend line (also the lower trendline of the massive Symmetrical Triangle) from November 2018 at 36.91 support, the next resistance is the descending trendline from February 2020 at ~51.25. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently testing 46.76 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is trending up slightly at ~-35 as it continues to test -46.46 minor resistance for the ninth consecutive session. ADX is currently trending sideways at 31 as Price attempts to defend $1270 minor support, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to defend $1270 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the 50 MA as resistance at $1427 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1k minor support before potentially retesting $776 support for the first time since January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1270.
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% ETH, 48% Cash.
*Cryptos have been choppy over the weekend and are now seeing some buying pressure to finish the week. Equity Futures are currently down to start the week. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/03; September Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07.*
Price is currently testing $1270 minor support for the second consecutive session, if Price breaks below this level then it will likely retest $1k psychological support and potentially lower to $776 minor support. Volume has favored sellers in the past four sessions and was Low for the past two consecutive sessions, indicative of weak support at these levels; however, it's currently on track to favor buyers if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1358, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 39 after bouncing off of the uptrend line from November 2018 at 36.91 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 66 as it's still technically testing 80.69 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at -69 for the fourth consecutive session, the next resistance (minor) is at -46.46 and the next support is at -90.80. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 34 as Price continues to trend down slightly, this is bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to defend $1270 minor support then it will likely retest $1427 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $1270 minor support, it will likely retest $1k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1269.54.
ETH Daily TA BearishETHUSD Daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% Cash.
*Cryptos are experiencing a Sunday Scaries sell-off to end the week as Equity Futures are down to start the week. This is all likely in anticipation for what is expected to be a volatile week with US Building Permits and Housing Starts data coming in before the Federal Reserve announces what is expected to either be a 75bp or 100bp FFR hike on 09/21 at 2pm. Key Upcoming Dates: US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$1300 after breaking below $1427 support in yesterday's session, the next support (psychological) is at ~$1k. Volume was High in yesterday's session and is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1695. RSI is currently trending down at 33 after breaking below the uptrend line from November 2018 at 37 as support, the next support is the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at ~32. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently attempting to crossover bullish at 5 as it approaches a potential test of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -61 but is still technically testing -46 minor support; the next support is at -91. ADX is currently trending up at 20 as Price is breaking down, this is mildly bearish at the moment; should ADX climb above 25 AND Price continue lower, this would be very bearish.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $1427 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down then it will likely retest $1k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1427.
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily TA neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% ETH, 45% Cash.
*Cryptos remained relatively flat but to the upside this weekend as US Equity Futures are currently up heading into the market open this week. Gold is down and DXY is up. Economic data is showing a slowdown in inflation and demand leading up to the August CPI print on 09/13 but the commitment by the Fed to getting FFR up to at least 4% by early 2023 presents an interesting dilemma going forward. This is because a stronger DXY and US Treasuries naturally puts a cap on potential near-term/medium-term alpha in Equities by attracting liquidity from investors whom are hedging against a global recession. Yes, USD is still king and it's being proven with DXY hitting highs last seen in 2000; Russian Ruble is also thriving but this is largely due to effects of sanctions. The Merge is set for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet on 09/14 . Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at 8am EST 09/14; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).*
Price is currently trending sideways at ~$1575 for a fourth consecutive session as it attempts to retest the 50 MA at ~$1660 as resistance. Volume remains Low and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance over the last few sessions, it has also been shrinking for seven consecutive sessions which is indicative of an impending breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1621, this is bullish. RSI continues to trend sideways at ~47 for four consecutive sessions now, the next resistance is at 55.31 and support at 37. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 75 as it defies a bearish crossover right below 81 resistance, if it can break above 81 then it will likely be bullish until max top. MACD remains bearish but is currently on the verge of crossing over bullish at -28 support. ADX is currently trending down at 16 as Price continues to consolidate in attempt to move higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1660 as resistance before potentially retesting $1711 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1500 as support before potentially retesting $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1534.
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% ETH, 52% Cash.
*JOBS REPORT WATCH. DXY and US Treasuries are dominating headlines again and pulling liquidity from markets as DXY hit $110 in today's session for the first time since September 2002. The 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.6% today compared to 1.6% on 08/26/22 ; this adds to the basket of recent bullish economic data leading up to tomorrow's Employment Situation. Cryptos are currently attempting to lead a corrective bounce in Risk-On markets after a Jackson Hole inspired sell off. Equities, Futures and Commodities are all down while DXY, US Treasuries, VIX and Cryptos are up. Something to keep an eye on regarding Cryptos next week is the due date for responses to the Biden Admin's Executive order on cryptocurrencies from market regulators and the US Treasury, Commerce and Justice Departments. Though mainly focused on the viability of a CBDC and its implementation, it will also help clarify which regulatory agencies are responsible for what in the cryptocurrency industry. Interestingly it will also discuss Proof of Work mining and its burden on ESG policies just days before Ethereum is set to transition to Proof of Stake. The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet 09/15/22 . Bitcoin Maximalist Michael Saylor is being sued by the Washington D.C. Attorney General for alleged tax evasion . Key Upcoming Dates: August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02 ; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13.*
Price is currently trending up at ~$1566 and deciding between an Ascending Triangle breakout or a Bear Flag breakdown, the next resistance is the 50 MA (~$1640) which it has tested in the previous two sessions. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1683, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 45 after successfully defending the descending trendline from 07/17/22 as support at 37 support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 47 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish and continues forming a trough at -46 minor support, if it can break above -22 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 22 as Price is trending up, this is mildly bearish.
If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1640 as resistance for a third consecutive session. However, if Price breaks down here, it will confirm a Bear Flag formation which would likely have Price retest $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711.
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash.
* S&P US August Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 (from 52.2 in July) , its lowest level since July 2020. Cryptos are seeing a continued rally from Sunday to start the week while Equities were mixed but stayed relatively flat. DXY took a dip while Treasuries are up, and both the VIX and Gold are up in anticipation for Q2 GDP and Jackson Hole later this week. The Merge is still on schedule for a 09/15/22 launch on Ethereum's Mainnet . Key Upcoming Dates: 7th GDPNow US Q3 Estimate at 830am EST 08/24 ; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on 08/26).*
Price is currently trending up at $1650 and briefly touched $1711 minor resistance as it continues to defend the 50 MA + the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as support at ~$1550. Volume is High and on track to favor buyers in three consecutive sessions while defending the 50 MA, this is bullish and hints that The Merge rally isn't over. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1969, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 47 after bouncing at 42, the next resistance is the descending trendline from February 2020 at 54 (which would likely coincide with 55.31 resistance). Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 14; the next resistance is at 18. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down with no sign of trough formation; it is still technically testing 28 support. ADX is currently trending down at 26 with no sign of trough formation as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to break above $1711 minor resistance , the next likely target is a retest of $1941 resistance . However, if Price is rejected at $1711 minor resistance, it will likely retest the 50 MA + the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$1550 as support before potentially retesting $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711.