Ethereum at the Crossroads: Breakdown or Breakout?Ethereum has seen a steep 60% drop from its highs, but recent activity suggests it might be entering a key transition phase. I’ve entered a long position here with a wide target in place, waiting for clear signs of bullish momentum before adding more size.
Technically, ETH is holding above a strong low on the daily and attempting to reclaim territory beneath a descending trendline. The market has been compressing tightly, and we could soon see expansion either direction. If this is indeed a base forming, it offers a great R:R.
The invalidation lies below the $1,500 daily close—anything below that negates the idea of a shift and brings the $1,000 psychological level into focus. Until then, I treat this as a potential bottom formation trade.
Technicals
• Downtrend structure: ETH has been in a macro downtrend but is showing early signs of compression and possible trend reversal.
• Descending trendline resistance in play. A daily close above it would be significant.
• 2000–2100 remains a psychological resistance zone.
• RSI & Stoch below neutral, indicating room to move up if pressure builds.
• Invalidation below $1,500 (daily close).
Fundamentals
• Massive accumulation: Over 2.11M ETH added to accumulation addresses in March alone.
• Supply squeeze: ETH on exchanges dropped to a 10-year low, down 16.4% from 7 weeks ago.
• Open interest rising: Futures market open interest climbed from 9.40M to 10.10M ETH in just three days—showing derivative trader confidence.
• Ethereum Pectra upgrade scheduled, promising long-term improvements in staking, fees, and transaction management.
• If bullish catalysts align, this accumulation phase could spark a breakout move back toward $2,800–3,000 in Q2.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
