Nine Spot ETFs Plunge ETH Prices. Will ETH Tank Further?The SEC approved the listing of nine spot ETH ETFs on 23/July. The launch of these ETFs was expected to drive capital flows with spot buying. But it didn’t. ETH prices plunged by 9% over the following two days. Crucially, the decline in the ETH/BTC ratio was a similar 9% as BTC remained resilient.
Following what appears to be a sell-the-news event, the outlook for ETH remains mixed as GETH outflows are more than offsetting inflows to the other ETFs.
The sharp price decline offers a buying opportunity. Take caution as the risk of further decline persists. Implied Volatility (IV) on puts increased while IV on call declined after spot ETF approvals.
ETH ETF APPROVAL ACCOMPANIED BY PRICE DECLINE
The SEC provided final approval for eight spot ETH ETFs to trade while also allowing the conversion of the ETHE trust to a spot ETF, making it nine spot ETH ETFs in total.
Source: Farside
ETH prices dropped by 1.3% on launch day clearly marking a "sell the news" event. ETH plunged nearly 9% over the next two days, returning to its 20/May levels. This earlier date in May marked the onset of rumors about the SEC's likely approval as covered previously .
Crucially, the ETH/BTC ratio also declined, highlighting the specific negative impact on ETH distinct from the broader crypto market.
OUTFLOWS FROM GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST DOMINATE NET ETF FLOWS
ETH prices were pressured down by massive net outflows led by fund movement out from Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) chiefly due to steep expense ratio. These outflows far outpaced the inflows to other ETFs.
Source: Farside
Grayscale offers a lower cost alternative in the mini ETH ETF (ETH), inflows into it are small and inadequate to stem the outflow from the much larger ETHE.
Launch of Spot BTC ETFs caused outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). Investors then switched over to lower cost ETFs. This time though, the net effect on ETH ETFs has been much more negative.
Crucially, outflows from GBTC continued for almost four months after spot ETF launch. ETHE outflows could also continue for a considerable period, dominating net flows in spot ETH ETFs for the foreseeable future.
CALL IV HAS DECLINED FOLLOWING ETF LAUNCH
IV skew for 25-delta options showed that calls were far more expensive than puts. This reversed sharply after the ETF launch on 24/July, making puts expensive relative to calls, signaling rising fears of pain for ETH prices in the near term.
Source: CME QuikVol
Though ATM IV has dipped somewhat following approval, it still remains elevated from last month.
Source: CME QuikVol
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
ETH ETF launch has been a stark sell-the-news event. Prices have reversed gains. While spot buying may drive positive price action, recent flow analysis from ETH ETFs shows outflows from ETHE dominating.
Like GBTC, this trend could continue for many months, with inflows to other ETFs muted, the net effect may be higher selling pressure in the coming weeks.
Still, ETH prices have corrected sharply. It trades 12.5% higher from a major YTD support level and above the 200-day moving average. Consequently, ETH prices are unlikely to trend much lower from current levels. Breakout to the upside also remains unlikely in the near-term given the lack of major news flow.
A bullish put spread is an astute trade set up to harvest elevated put IVs amid a narrow trading range. A bullish put spread consists of a short put at a higher strike combined with a long put at a lower strike.
This position benefits from the net credit earned from the short put position net off the premium paid for the long put. Long put provides the crucial downside risk protection while also reducing the margin required.
The proposed hypothetical trade set up comprises of short 3100 put combined with a long 3000 put on CME Micro Ether Options expiring in August.
While the position offers a fixed upside and downside, it is crucial to note that the maximum loss for this position (USD -6.5) is higher than the maximum profit (USD 3.5). As such, the position would lose money in case the present downturn in ETH prices continues.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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Ethfutures
Ethereum CME Futures Gap UpEthereum CME Futures testing Gap Up Support Resistance levels.
Also Fibonacci 55% Retracement Level , First Touch Price Rejection.
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and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
ETH/USDT 4 HOUR UPDATEHello, welcome to this ETH/USDT chart update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
CHART ANALYSIS:-ETH continues the sideways movement. The market is loading for a big impulsive move. The trading range major support is the $1160-$1170 area and major resistance is the $1230-$1240 area. Plan your trades accordingly.
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#ETH/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERSHello dear traders, we here new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer for all, thank you, guys.
ETH/USDT UPDATE:-Ethereum (ETH) was also trading low to start the weekend, as a bullish sentiment from yesterday’s Consumer Sentiment data swiftly wore off.
Since hitting a peak of $1,368.74 during yesterday’s session, ETH/USD fell to a low of $1,320.38 earlier in the day.
As a result of this sell-off, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency dropped below its support point of $1,330.
Currently, the token is trading at $1,325.36, with bulls attempting to climb above this current point of resistance.
Like with bitcoin, Ethereum's 14-day RSI is also consolidating and is hovering below a ceiling of 41.00 as of writing.
The 10-day (red) moving average seems to finally be positioned for a bounce, however, this will likely only occur once the ceiling on the RSI indicator is broken.
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#ET/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE !!Hello dear traders, we here new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer for all, thank you, guys.
ETH UPDATE:-ETH/USDT looks bullish and RSI is bullish movement and 15% to 20% for eth bounce support and eth/USDT target.
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#ETH/USDT 1DAY UPDATE !!Hello dear traders, we here new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer for all, thank you, guys.
ETH UPDATE:-Ethereum is moving within a descending channel (in blue) on the daily chart. This resistance line has prevented further growth since registering its all-time high. When the price last hit the channel’s top in August, it suffered a drop to $1,422 as a consequence.
The scenario for the Relative Strength Index (RSI 30d) is comparable. The descending line (in white) that has formed over the last 12 months is acting as resistance.
To fulfill the two important goals — breaking out of the channel and overcoming the horizontal resistance at $1,800 — the bulls must now drive the price above that level (in red). This coincides with gaining momentum above the descending line in the RSI.
On the other hand, if the Merge turns out to be a sell-the-news event, investors should be ready for heightened pressure that could send the price back to $1350 and even lower.
Support Levels: $1420 & $1350
Resistance Levels: $1800 & $2100
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ETH rallying or ramming into a resistance soon?Of course you cannot predict the future but statistics-wise, I ammore inclined to see ETH drop again rather than see it break up to new ATHs...
We have 4-5 candles to go to see the immediate effects of the Merge.Could turn uit to be a hype-pump as there are no real good long-term news for the economy. (Who will buy crypto when people are worriedabout food shortage and heating their homes in winter. Ukraine and Taiwan are also reasons to worry about. ETH has the potential to grow big in the far future but I do not expect it to happen before mid-late 2023.
We will see. I am stil keeping some but sold most of this pump.
#ETH/USDT 2HOUR UPDATE !!Hello dear traders, we here new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer for all, thank you, guys.
In current scenario ETH trading on a support level and highly chance to grow above from current level until ETH holds this level.
Candle close below lower trend line support will lead ETH to drop down towards lower trend green support level.
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
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ETHEREUM/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE!!Hello dear traders, we here new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer for all, thank you, guys.
ETH/USDT UPDATE!
In the current scenario, ETH is currently holding well as a green support area, the longer it holds this level, the more likely it is to bounce back.
The MACD also printed a bullish cross-over with slightly lighter red bars, which is indicating a trend reversal from bears to a bullish pattern.
The candle will trigger a bullish pattern towards the $1270 price level if it closes above the $1110 price level.
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
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ETHERIUM BIG DUMP EXPECTEDTechnical Analysis Summary
ETH/USDT
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 2 Downtrend in red color (Internal and Long Term).
Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have many resistance and support levels that I have mentioned above.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
White levels Levels are levels from my past ideas published or levels that were respected from the past.
IF THE LAST 1H SUPPORT BROKEN EXPECT BIG DUMP
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
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Trading Involves High Risk
Not Financial Advice
Exercise Proper Risk Management
#ETH/USDT 1HOUR UPDATE !!Hello dear traders, we here new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer for all, thank you, guys.
As we can see in the above-mentioned chart that ETH is currently trading inside the parallel channel and also following the lower mid-trend line as support.
Currently, ETH is moving upside and trading just below the upper trend line.
Now, if ETH breaks above, it can trade above and move upside towards the price level of $1300.
Rejection from this level will lead ETH again towards its lowest price, which can be $900.
MACD also printed a bullish cross-over.
Let’s see how ETH performs in the upcoming hours.
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
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#ETH/USDT 4Hr UPDATE !Hello, dear traders welcome you to this ETH/USDT 4Hr chart analysis.
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Ethereum is trading below the liquidity level in the support area.
The price is testing the light green zone and the 4hr time frame.
The decline occurred on a rise in volume and a correction when volume fell.
I expect the price to test the upper limit of the channel.
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
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#ETH/USDT 4Hr UPDATE !Hello, dear traders welcome you to this ETH/USDT 4Hr chart analysis.
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Ethereum is trading below the support area.
eth/usdt is testing the 4-hour time frame.
The amount of decline increased.
I expect the price to test the upper boundary of the channel.
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
Thanks for your time, we hope our work is good for you, and you are satisfied, we wish you a good day and big profits.
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#ETH/USDT DAILY UPDATE !!Hello members and welcome to this ETH/USDT Quick Chart Analysis.
Nothing much has changed yet in this daily time frame.
As we can see ash the above-mentioned chart that ETH/USDT still trading still inside and at a lower trend line in support of descending channel pattern.
Here, we can see ETH bounced right from the lower trend line support and FIB LEVEL of 0.618 and bounced for 4 consecutive days.
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#USDT.DOMINANCE DAILY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS!!Hello community members welcome you all to this USDT.D 1d chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS
As we can see in the above-mentioned chart that USDT.D is trading inside a triangle pattern in a 1day time frame
And currently, it's trading at the upper trend line resistance which is the 6.0% range.
Now we can see a rejection From this price level, but it's better to wait for the candle close because if we consider the previous candle wicks then 6.33% will be the decisive point.
If USDT.D rejects the 6.33% then it will be the best buying opportunity for bull traders in ALTCOINS.
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#ETH/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERSHello, welcome to this ETH/USDT 4Hr chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS.
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CHART ANALYSIS:-#ETH/USDT support $2638 and resistance $2742!
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#ETH/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE BY SANDERS!Hello, welcome to this ETH /USDT 4Hr chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS.
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CHART ANALYSIS:-
In the above-mentioned chart, ETH/USDT still trending inside the channel pattern above the support zone which ETH holds very well.
Here I am, expecting a bounce from the support green zone and a break to this channel pattern which will be good in the short term for the Altcoins (well pump).
If it breaks the support zone then the scenario will be changed.
So, it's better to wait for the confirmation to get in the market.
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#ETH/USD 4Hr update !Hello, welcome to this ETH /USD 4Hr chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS.
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CHART ANALYSIS:-
On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH is trading inside a falling wedge, which is technically a bullish pattern as long as the price can break out of the falling wedge and form a higher high, which should be around the critical level of $3,000.
Once the indicator has entered the bearish zone, the dynamic trend line (marked green) will likely be retested. From there, we can expect a short-term continuation of the uptrend.
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#ETH/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERSHello, welcome to this #ETH/USDT 1DAY chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS.
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CHART ANALYSIS: -
ETH/USDT currently trading inside the triangle pattern and on the support zone.
There is a high chance to bounce from this strong support zone all the way to 175%.
You can take entry here on the support zone with a SPOT and LOW leverage of 2x to 5x.
If it breaks down the support zone then close your position or use stop loss for safe trading.
long term hold and good profit 😉🙂😊✈️✈️
Q:-What do you think about this?
Do you think we will see a new ATH of ETH/USDT in the next quarter?
Share your views in the comment section.
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
Happy trading.
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#ETH/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERSHello, welcome to this 4hr chart update by CRYPTOSANDERS.
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CHART ANALYSIS :
As we can see in the above-mentioned chart that ETH is currently trading inside the falling wedge pattern and also getting support in the green zone.
Here I am expecting a bounce from the support zone which Will be good for the ALT coins in the shorter and long term.
We just need to wait for the right time and a breakout and retest in a 4hr time frame which will be the strong confirmation for some good rally in ALT coins.
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#ETH/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS Hello, members welcome to ETH/USDT 4hr chart analysis by CRYPTOSANDERS.
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart.
First, hit the like button follow me and comment in the comment section because this motivates me to bring this kind of chart analysis on regular basis.
CHART ANALYSIS:
As we can see in the above-mentioned chart that ETH retested the upper trend line or the support zone and bounced.
Here now I am expecting according to the current scenario that ETH can put hard from this level.
This is not a piece of financial advice.
Sorry for my English it is not my native language.
thank you.