ETH short offers another shot, Bulls get high on hopium. 🐻Back in Sept we were following a head and shoulders on ETH that turned into an Adam and Eve Double Top.
More about that here:
This gradually evolved into a nice short opportunity but the markets have been ever choppy for anyone looking for more than scalps or 5% gains.
If you had a strict entry and stop loss on the previous entry for ETH that short is now closed. 🙋🏻♂️
However, the idea is the same and with even greater reward. Even with that bounce yesterday we are still in relief rally status. Nothing has changed.
We broke below 1270 but we did not confirm once again. The rally returned all gains from the last few day but nothing changed. ETH is still putting in lower highs with a base at 1270 and 2 touch points around 1220.
Next spot for a short entry is 1350 area, it makes sense and continues with the lower highs. If this thing is going to break down the more failures the more epic the breakdown.
If you want to lower your risk, wait to see if price action hits the down trend line, wicks through or closes below/above. If you over leverage (dont trade with leverage unless you are very experienced), in the past you can see the wick would kill you before giving tons of gains. But the highest candle confirmed with a lower close proceeding it all 3 times.
Invalidation of a 1350 entry would be just above 1409 with that first wick in the black circle. We saw the books get wiped yesterday before crashing and then late shorts get squeezed hard immediately after. The streets are volatile.
I labeled most of my lines as scalp levels. These are not critical to the big picture or this short. They are just levels I watch on the lower time frames when looking for trades that are 1-2%
With an invalidation and move higher I would be looking to the1560 region but ultimately ETH could go all the way up to 1790 and put in a lower high if it wanted. Look for a daily close above1380 with confirmation for a move higher.
I remain Bearish overall but I am not married to a Bearish outcome.
In times of uncertainty always ask your self - whats everyone calling for and what would bring the most pain?
Pain Options:
1. For Bulls its a new bottom thats lower
2. For the Bears a rally back to 25k
3. For Bears and Bulls it would be a higher local high like 29K before putting in a new low.
Not the most pain but the most "boring" wold be remaining range bound between 17.5 and 22K for months.
