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EUR/USD - Another big dud during Lon/NYOANDA:EURUSD Am I surprised? Naw, just another slow "nothing" the 2nd half of London into NY session. Entry triggers were slow to come, missed a few early on in London into NY open, but finally waited and entered short. But this was heading into London close, so whip saw reversal might be in play the 2nd half of NY. So I am at peace with only hard TP of 5pips that filled at London close. Patience and trade management will tip the scale in your favor. Trade well
Short
by makerup
2
EUR/USD - Wasted Day, Poke me in the EyeOANDA:EURUSD I'm a little irritated, woke up before FX NY open and for the most part, there were no good set-ups for me on the major pairs. I scanned and scanned, and nothing. All the moves occurred during the Asian/London sessions, arrgghh. So what did I do, well I'll tell ya. With my itchy fingers, I wanted to take a short on the EU, as I thought I saw a lower high on the 15m and some good selling pressure candle wicks. Yes, candle wicks. Chop chop, and then some chop heading into the London close. Wanted London to close and maybe, just maybe NY would come in with some surprise volume to the downside to get me my 15pip TP at round number 1.06500 That didn't happen, too slow for me, so I moved TP to +1.5 Im out. Trade management. Trade Well
by makerup
Eurusd could push further into Daily Zone at 1.07 Before SellersManufacturing data as anticpated, or missed slightly. Causing an initial decline in the EU Price. We are looking to close above 1.0657 on the 4hr for Buyers. Then I can observe it being possible for us to touch 1.07 and push deeper into the daily zone before we see sellers take over or range. If the Daily Candle closes like this, we will see a solid body candle.. and at the leasst expect a top wick on the next daily candle. Which, would be a nice intraday-move up.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EURGBP ShortThere’s been some decent swings in price lately. I believe the reason we witnessed such a dramatic rise and fall in price over the past two weeks was not so much due to euro strengthening over the pound, but because the pound weakened against the dollar more so than the euro. By this I mean that the pace of capital flight from pounds to dollars was more substantial than from euros to dollars. Due to uncertainties around US inflation data and interest rates It was only a matter of time before the latter caught up to the former which happened yesterday. Obviously a lower inflation figure for the pound adds extra selling pressure for the UK but I believe that the EU and UK are largely in a similar situation. Granted the ECB is firm on its next rate rise but I’m comfortable with the risks from here on. Let’s not forget that the UK is still in double digit inflation so a minor tick down is not overly surprising to me. Major central banks will have you believe that inflation is done, job finished. But I don’t buy it, not even close! But I guess we’ll see just how sticky our inflation problems are over the coming months. As you can see from the chart, the price is currently moving within a large ascending triangle (WHITE) with moderate divergence between the price relative to the indicators which suggests weakness when compared to the volume, which is actually quite low I may add. The price had a rejection of the ascending triangle support due to a cooler than expected inflation print. For this reason I believe that if the price can clear the 0.89 area, it will likely rise to the upper limits of the triangle (white) and rising channel (blue), with my POI being around the 0.8970-0.9050 are shown by the white circle. At which point I will be looking to sell this pair in anticipation of a move to the downside and continuing lower to 0.87’s. If the the price struggles to clear the 0.89 area then I will wait for a lower price sell confirmation. If the fundamentals have a shock surprise in store then I will reassess the situation and position myself accordingly. That being said, I believe this pair is still open to significant moves following US fundamentals as the US economy seems to still be running hot as can be seen from last months jobs report and today’s retail sales. Both coming in significantly higher than expected which will force Powells hand to turn up the dial on interest rates in a bid to calm inflation. As such, US data must be factored-in when deciding to trade this pair as recently, it is each currencies respective weakness to the dollar and not each other that seems to be the underlying theme. POI - sell around 0.900 area TP1 - 0.8770 TP2 - 0.8750 TP3 - 0.8720 If the price struggles to clear 0.89 (stranger things have happened) then i will likely wait for a clean break of the ascending triangle (white) before deciding to sell the pair. I asses my SL based on risk factors. It is not a mechanical percentage calculation. As always this is just a basic overview of my opinion and is not a detailed analysis so please do your own analysis and always trade with caution.
by jamesfrench73
London Close Volume. Fakeout for Bulls or Continuation for BearsAnticpating that we may fakeout on the 1hr Timeframe and dip back below 1.062. We may, consequently, drop to 1.06 where i will look to TP. We may keep dropping or continue to test these Pullback areas on the 4hr/1Hr Timeframes. It would be good for bears if the 4hr candle closes below 1.062. Bulls need close above there. Consumer sentiment missed by a decent margin. Causing concern. Investors may continue to pile inot this already crowded trade. We'll see what happens. Speach and manufactuaring data upcoming this week
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EUR/USD - Not my night, but lessons of the past is VALUEOANDA:EURUSD After the garbage trade on USD/JPY that went to breakeven earlier, I looked at EUR/USD and took a short. This time I wanted a TP at previous week lows around the 1.05362 area, which would had been a nice one to start the week. But it went against me a bit (a good bit), but I held, not because I was bag holding, but I held in the direction of my longer trend bias. So price action did come back in my favor. So this is where I checked my greed, price came back to my entry level, and in my past life, after going through a nice draw down and coming back to break even, I would keep holding for a bigger pay day, but most times, price action would pullback against me even harder and I would be rekt and blown up. Today, I was happy to close out at breakeven for +1.5 pips. Trade management is THE #1 key to surviving and success. Trade well.
Short
by makerup
ITALIAN ECONOMY AS REQUESTED BY A VIP SUBThe decrease in consumer price inflation in Italy could potentially have a positive impact on the country's economy, as it may help alleviate some of the pressures on households and businesses caused by high inflation. However, the impact on the overall economy may be limited, as inflation is only one of many factors affecting economic growth. The performance of the Italian stock market, as reflected by the FTSE MIB index, is likely to be influenced by a range of factors beyond inflation, including global economic conditions, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. The recent losses experienced by the banking sector could be a concern for the economy, as banks play a critical role in providing credit to businesses and households. In terms of the euro currency, the projected decline in HICP inflation in 2023 and beyond could potentially be viewed as a positive development by investors, as it may alleviate some of the concerns about inflation and reduce the likelihood of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. However, the euro's performance will also be influenced by a range of other factors, including global economic conditions, political developments, and the outlook for monetary policy in other major economies. It's been an exciting week for the Italian economy as stocks continue to rise further. The European Commission's Winter Interim Forecast has lifted the growth outlook for this year to 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area, which is great news for those invested in the region. Additionally, the decrease of inflation target in Europe in 2023 is expected to provide even more upward momentum for the economy. While the recent positivity has brought the Italian stocks up to a key resistance zone at 28,000, some experts are cautioning that it looks overbought in the short-term. However, there could be a big appreciation on the horizon, making now an excellent time to consider investing in the Italian and euro economy after we get the pullback to level out price action.
FOREXCOM:IT40Long
by OfficialKieranTrewick
Inflation Data was a catalyst to Pullback for Liquidity/+ >PriceWell it appears that inflation helped price pullback to 1.079. Price didn't spend much time up there , less than an hour on tuesday , when data came out. ever since we have bears from last week reappear. momentum is strong because of unexpected nfp data, cpi was expected, positively declined , if that makes sense. price is showing us relentless selling pressure. i mean the price is currently holding up a weekly candle top wick that measures 123 pips which isn't unusual but significant. Price has only gone 24 pips below weekly candle open. It is likely we see a larger range created to the downside. current price 1.06596
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Momentum Setup // Pre-newsWe have a wicks to fill. One is at 1.06174. The Other wick is the Previous weekly candle low at 1.06120. We have momentum so most likely we will touch these prices at some point. We are trading 2 hours before news here. Ultimate target on week on 1.055. Additionally, I think FOMC will help provide a catalyst to take us lower. We may pullback hard first, for liquidity. So be aware of price spikes as we walk into news. Momentum , with regard to Price Action, is explained in the previous post. If we look at Weekly/Daily timeframes we see all red or what we interpret as rejection wicks, which aligns with our bias.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Dollar Bulls. A Flop from Friday NY Session. 🤔Volume is coming into the market. Players were eager to return to the arena after the bank holiday. Market structure was bearish walking into week. Not surprised . The top wick of last weekly candle was 108 pips. That's bearish momentum in a nutshell. then you draw up lines on smaller timframes and use technical anlaysis to look for a good RR entry on 4hr/1hr minor zones. There is a high probability that price will drop off a cliff here, and into the abyss below. The 4hr timeframe is pushing us bearish. We failed to close above the 1.06650 4hr zone on the 4hr Timframe and consequently left a very large top wick ( 37 pips) which i interpret as rejection of higher prices. We'll see what happens here. 1.06130 is last weekly candle low price. that is first target. second target being 1.055
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1