EUR/USD - Not my night, but lessons of the past is VALUEOANDA:EURUSD
After the garbage trade on USD/JPY that went to breakeven earlier, I looked at EUR/USD and took a short.
This time I wanted a TP at previous week lows around the 1.05362 area, which would had been a nice one to start the week.
But it went against me a bit (a good bit), but I held, not because I was bag holding, but I held in the direction of my longer trend bias.
So price action did come back in my favor.
So this is where I checked my greed, price came back to my entry level, and in my past life, after going through a nice draw down and coming back to break even, I would keep holding for a bigger pay day, but most times, price action would pullback against me even harder and I would be rekt and blown up.
Today, I was happy to close out at breakeven for +1.5 pips.
Trade management is THE #1 key to surviving and success.
Trade well.
EU
ITALIAN ECONOMY AS REQUESTED BY A VIP SUBThe decrease in consumer price inflation in Italy could potentially have a positive impact on the country's economy, as it may help alleviate some of the pressures on households and businesses caused by high inflation. However, the impact on the overall economy may be limited, as inflation is only one of many factors affecting economic growth.
The performance of the Italian stock market, as reflected by the FTSE MIB index, is likely to be influenced by a range of factors beyond inflation, including global economic conditions, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. The recent losses experienced by the banking sector could be a concern for the economy, as banks play a critical role in providing credit to businesses and households.
In terms of the euro currency, the projected decline in HICP inflation in 2023 and beyond could potentially be viewed as a positive development by investors, as it may alleviate some of the concerns about inflation and reduce the likelihood of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. However, the euro's performance will also be influenced by a range of other factors, including global economic conditions, political developments, and the outlook for monetary policy in other major economies.
It's been an exciting week for the Italian economy as stocks continue to rise further. The European Commission's Winter Interim Forecast has lifted the growth outlook for this year to 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area, which is great news for those invested in the region. Additionally, the decrease of inflation target in Europe in 2023 is expected to provide even more upward momentum for the economy. While the recent positivity has brought the Italian stocks up to a key resistance zone at 28,000, some experts are cautioning that it looks overbought in the short-term. However, there could be a big appreciation on the horizon, making now an excellent time to consider investing in the Italian and euro economy after we get the pullback to level out price action.
My outlook for EURUSD for next week this is our outlook for next week feb 27
nobody knows where price is heading, but we are ready to adapt to either scenario and look to catch something
also I feel like next week the markets will be slow, as price needs to develop and build liquidity for future moves
because it takes a lot of money to change trend, so keep that in mind
Inflation Data was a catalyst to Pullback for Liquidity/+ >PriceWell it appears that inflation helped price pullback to 1.079. Price didn't spend much time up there , less than an hour on tuesday , when data came out. ever since we have bears from last week reappear. momentum is strong because of unexpected nfp data, cpi was expected, positively declined , if that makes sense. price is showing us relentless selling pressure. i mean the price is currently holding up a weekly candle top wick that measures 123 pips which isn't unusual but significant. Price has only gone 24 pips below weekly candle open. It is likely we see a larger range created to the downside. current price 1.06596
Momentum Setup // Pre-newsWe have a wicks to fill. One is at 1.06174. The Other wick is the Previous weekly candle low at 1.06120. We have momentum so most likely we will touch these prices at some point. We are trading 2 hours before news here. Ultimate target on week on 1.055. Additionally, I think FOMC will help provide a catalyst to take us lower. We may pullback hard first, for liquidity. So be aware of price spikes as we walk into news. Momentum , with regard to Price Action, is explained in the previous post. If we look at Weekly/Daily timeframes we see all red or what we interpret as rejection wicks, which aligns with our bias.
Dollar Bulls. A Flop from Friday NY Session. 🤔Volume is coming into the market. Players were eager to return to the arena after the bank holiday. Market structure was bearish walking into week. Not surprised . The top wick of last weekly candle was 108 pips. That's bearish momentum in a nutshell. then you draw up lines on smaller timframes and use technical anlaysis to look for a good RR entry on 4hr/1hr minor zones. There is a high probability that price will drop off a cliff here, and into the abyss below. The 4hr timeframe is pushing us bearish. We failed to close above the 1.06650 4hr zone on the 4hr Timframe and consequently left a very large top wick ( 37 pips) which i interpret as rejection of higher prices. We'll see what happens here. 1.06130 is last weekly candle low price. that is first target. second target being 1.055
ASIA EJ B&R ON MOMENTUMEJ is in a consolidation phase so we must watch our step, but thats usually when algorithmic patterns come out to play, so lets see if they will follow thru on this harmonic reaction, price also formed one of our reversal setups, followed by what could be a continuation with this break and retest
Freaky Friday // NY Open Reversal // >> 1m Chart in DescriptionAnalysis : Check 1m Chart in Description
If you wish, I have provided a breakdown of the Reversal on EU this Friday.
Go through all 8 points in order and it makes more sense.
Still bearish as we go into next week. However we must be fluid.
So we will allow price to guide us with the clues it leaves us. Price Action.
Bearish Look on EURUSD until end of WeekBearish
Funadamental Background : CPI helped price to pullback and breathe
and now we have returned to the lows.
Momentum: Bear Candle from Last week with solid body
Technicals
1) Large Top wick rejection
on weekly candle after printing
Bear Candle last week
2) Was anticipating Bears to show up this
week AFTER a potential pullback ..
Which we did get a pullback to 1.07900
3) Price just pierced last week's
low , Monday's Low, and Wednesday's
Low
4) Price respected 1.07100 as anticipated
across the duration of current daily candle
5) Range to fill to downside down to 1.5500
EURUSD UPDATE! NEUTRAL?!Hello all!
In the case of EURUSD, like analysed before on HTF in recent videos, the pair broke structure and sold since NFP from January..
However, right now it is one of those pairs that you need to stay away from until the consolidation phase breaks...
I have marked my LTF POIs that i will watch and wait for.
What do you think of it?
Take care!
Daily Analysis Update \ EURUSD Friday 10 Feb 23Frustrating week on Euro. My target of 1.08270 was never met so I could not go short as it had some more juice in my opinion to trade higher.
The downside target of 1.06044 looks like it will be met maybe by Monday or if the Fed Speaker today gets active we could see that target hit by close of trading today.
Will update with a weekly analysis on Sunday.
EURUSD Analysis + Recent Volatility EXPLAINED (Description) I have a Bearish Bias on this Pair. Trading Structure and momentum on this Channel.
Check first Chart in Description to See what I'm looking at.
Also, Included in the Description are two charts from Days Feb 1st ( Interest Rated Decision)
and Feb 7th ( Fed Powell Speech )
These Charts , when compared and contrasted , are not much different. Actually they are quite the same.
After news create initial volatility, Price is corrected nearly to the same price in which it begun shortly after, it may take 1-2 trading sessions or
it could take only 1-2 hours. All relative.