EU
Euro slides on Nordstrom squeezeThe euro has taken a nasty tumble today. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0144, down 0.76%.
The energy crisis surrounding Nord Stream 1, a key channel for Russian gas exports to Europe continues to simmer. Perhaps the pipeline should be referred to as 'Nord Brook 1', after Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, warned it will cut flows through the pipeline to just 20% of capacity starting Wednesday, claiming "technical issues". The EU has charged that the move is politically motivated, but Vladimir Putin is holding the better hand of cards and has no compunction about weaponising energy exports to the West.
The EU has scrambled to scale back its energy dependence on Moscow and announced today that member states had agreed on a voluntary reduction of 15% in natural gas imports. The deal was reached at lightning speed, reflecting the tremendous apprehension in Brussels about an energy crisis this winter. Still, the agreement has apparently been watered down, with exemptions for members that are not directly linked to EU gas pipelines and are completely dependent on Russia. The latest squeeze on Nord Stream 1 has unnerved investors and sent the euro sharply lower.
With the war in Ukraine dragging on and a potential energy crisis looming, it's no surprise that German confidence indicators are under pressure. Ifo Business Sentiment slipped to 88.6 in June, down from 92.2 in May. The soft reading was accompanied by a warning from the Ifo Institute, which warned of a looming recession in Germany, due to soaring energy prices and the possibility of a gas shortage in Europe's largest economy. On Wednesday, Germany releases GfK Consumer Climate, which is expected to fall to -28.9 in August, down from -27.4 in July. The index has been steadily weakening and has been mired in negative territory since October 2021.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with a live meeting that will include a supersize rate hike. The markets are expecting a 75bp increase for a second straight meeting, but a massive 100bp hike cannot be ruled out. A 75bp move could be met with a yawn by the US dollar, while a 100bp increase would be a surprise and likely boost the greenback.
EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0191. The next support level is 1.0105
There is resistance at 1.0304 and 1.0390
EUR/USD shrugs as German confidence slipsThe euro is in positive territory at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0245, up 0.30%.
The US dollar lost some of its lustre last week and the euro took advantage. EUR/USD posted its first winning week in a month and pulled some distance away from the parity line.
The euro has posted gains today but there was some alarming data out of Germany. Ifo Business Sentiment dropped to 88.6 in June, down sharply from 92.2 in May and shy of the consensus estimate of 90.2. The reading marked the lowest level in more than two years and was accompanied by an unusually grim message from the head of the Ifo Institute. Klaus Wohlrabe said that a recession in Germany was "knocking on the door" due to high energy prices and the possibility of gas shortages faced by Germany.
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline opened on Thursday as scheduled after being shut for maintenance but only at about 40% capacity, which was the case before it shut down. At that level, Germany may need to ration gas in order to reach its target of 90% storage capacity before winter sets in. The EU has suggested that member countries scale back their gas needs by 15% starting August 1st, but already some members are pushing back and demanding exemptions, making it uncertain if this voluntary plan will get off the ground.
The EU is clearly worried that Russia will weaponise its energy exports to Europe, which has implemented sanctions against Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. With each member state having to worry about its own citizens having sufficient gas in the winter, we could see cracks appear in the EU's attempt to have a unified stance against Russia.
EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0191. The next support level is 1.0105
There is resistance at 1.0304 and 1.0390
EURUSDWedges are not my favourite form of analysis I have to admit, but we are seeing EURUSD breakout of this Consolidation period, with a strong bearish candle, we also have divergence in our RVI indicator, we could look for a small pullback and take a short position on price action back to the lows.
EUEU has pulled back after breaking the ema89 signalling us to look only for sell trades, price has pulled back, I have tagged a chart of DXY which shows how we have a pinbar and are trading above the ema89, so in EURUSD we look for shorts, we can look to take this trade based of the $ rising. Look for a return to the contraction which is the TP1 this range will likely be a stop or a pitstop for the pair.
Sanofi - Pharming for profits?Sanofi
Short Term
We look to Buy at 95.00 (stop at 91.90)
The medium term bias remains bullish. Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 93.25 found buyers. Previous support located at 93.08. Further upside is expected and we look to set longs in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 104.35 and 110.00
Resistance: 95.16 / 98.22 / 104.35
Support: 93.25 / 93.08 / 92.78
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Euro economic suicide Buying dept bills from the US to support their economy, and want to be a hero in the war of Ukrain vs Russia is pure economic suicede.
But good it was already known a tons of company's were exiting the EU beceause of their ridicelous tax paramid.
Only ministers in the EU could be so dump to bring it this far. The plan is to make a dessert from EU soil in 10 years. Ministers pockets are full, so no one gives a damn in their parlements. Admit it!
Wrong generation leading EU, no bachelor needet to see this.
Thanks alot, when are the first bombs going to fall on EU soil to make it official?
So we can go straight to .70 index this or next year.
Long term bear v. short term bull for PYPLClear 5 waves (of a high degree) down + declining technicals suggest more pain to come in the years ahead.
However rebounce to 100+ in the short term should also be very doable.
The 0.618 retracement from ATH is hard to ignore, weekly RSI closing above 24 will confirm the positive divergence.
Wait until the OpEx dust settles on Friday and we should be good to go for sideways to up in the next few weeks/months.
EURUSD Daily Analysis | May 26, ThuSince I am expecting the Dollar to strengthen, we might as well assume the price will move to it's previous fair value range of 1.04972 - 1.05712 where we could look for sells. Shorting it from the current levels is not mathematically rational, since that would give us a risk to reward ratio of 1:1.2 and 169 pips stop loss.