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Euro on the edge...The breakdown keeps rolling in. April candle is likely (1 day left) to close below that minor trendline on monthly that we broke. Rejection candles on daily indicate the daily trend breakout failed. If price makes another push it will be to the upper side of quarterly opening range from where we should see a bearish push anyway due to bullish weakness. In fact, the major breakdown took place in 2014 and it sends price to 0.85, we are still working it out... In May we should see some serious bearish action. For educational purposes only. Top Absolute Correlation 1 day 1 EURUSD - USDCHF -97.6% 2 EURUSD - USDPLN -93.7% 3 EURUSD - USDSEK -91.6% 4 EURUSD - USDHUF -87.3% 5 EURUSD - USDMXN -84.6% 6 EURUSD - USDCNH -83.3% 7 EURUSD - USDSGD -83.2% 8 EURUSD - EURPLN -82.1% 9 EURUSD - NZDUSD 80.2% 10 EURUSD - USDNOK -78.2%
Short
by ICFX
1
Breakout analysisIn my previous post I noted that in cases of contrarian move price will end Fibonacci R1 weekly resistance. Move exhausted itself already. Though DeMark projection sends slightly here - but classic DM projections work only in 60 percent of times. If we do more conservative breakout projection (for the current move) we already outperformed it. The current ongoing breakout is mirroring the previous major bullish breakout having 1 and 3 breakout DeMark (DM) qualifiers missing. So they both will end as false breaks. Those are unnatural unsustained breakout actions, most likely from ECB and SNB. The national banks can somewhat push the price but not sustain the moves in the long run. The major bearish breakdown was different and more serious (natural) on the other hand and it sends price below all the lows. Note weekly CPR is very thin and we noted that this week is going be volatile. Thin CPR dont act as strong support (though it did in the beginning) - they are usually pierced back and forth with volatile moves. For educational purposes only.
Short
by ICFX
1
EXY - Bearish engulfingBearish engulfing is one of the most reliable trading patterns (along with morning star) and in 80 percent cases generates a bearish reversal. Here, bearish candle engulfed 2 previous days what is rather significant. Price usually pulls back to the middle of bearish engulfing pattern before further drop. That is what we observing on Euro index. We also reached weekly R3 reversal level. Note also how price reacts at Camarilla S3-R3 reversal levels (those levels contain so called "value zone") and Camarilla S4-R4 breakout levels (so called "floor and roof") For educational purposes only.
TVC:EXYShort
by ICFX
EURUSD Cam S4 R4 yearlyIn this post we analyzed the breakdowns (breakouts) of Camarilla S4 R4 yearly pivots, so called yearly floor and roof levels and what impact those rather significant events had on EURUSD weekly chart. As you see, each such breakdown generated violent moves (yellow) that often lasted into the next year. If there S4-R4 violation did not generate such a move it was because those levels were broken during the previous year or two and proceeding yearly break exhausted itself. There was no such violation in 2018 and 2019 to give us reasons to believe that the current break will not succeed. Besides that, we have got a thinnest yearly CPR in EURUSD history. As we noted earlier thin CPRs are forecasters of volatility (and volatility is the major sign of crisis). We ought also notice CPR alternation principle (thin CPR trend - wide CPR congestion) that is often observed as demonstrated above (1,2,3 in late 1990s). By this principle, 2020 should be a trending market, while in 2021 we will see a retrace (recovery) and congestion. For educational purposes only.
Short
by ICFX
EURUSD April 21 Tech Overview From the news front we are waiting for the upcoming virtual EU leader meeting on April 23. Virtual means that you are completely video recorded and this means less truth and more selfish. Consensus on it is unlikely between so many participants as we can see how hard it is going during virus crisis situation. The main problem not only how to act now, but already how to live together in long term for them. So on minor and mt tf's we can see clear lvl around 1.09 that must be protected by bears to archive new down wave ahead. We can mark trend is down until we stay under 1.09 / tgt 1.0640 as first and lower if broken to the downside. Buy against the trend cud be established at 1.0804 and 1.0774, but it is only for high risk scalp players who can control risk under their own MM trading system. Bulls need to regain 1.09 lvl to deny negative expectations. Longs are rising and this is interesting how bulls cud stand with more and more martingale. Also a point to think about. Cheers!
Short
by AlpacaBlack
2
EURUSD 4HR Failed Breakout To Retry?EURUSD sits around 1.0850 on an important support level. The 4-hour chart is showing us that we may see retest support before an attempt to break higher The levels we must keep in mind are the following: 1.06509, 1.07710, 1.08263 - 1.09063, 1.09884, 1.11334 What do we have here? ✔️ Bullish Triangle Formation ✔️ Breakout on Multiple Timeframes ✔️ Attempting to Test Near Term Support Level Thank you, Connor, Please feel free to follow me to get more analysis. On Tradingview I share 1hr, 4hr, 1D, 1W charting analysis across major instruments only.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn309537
EXY - oversupplyEuro index chart. Monthly. Price is driven by global supply and demand. And what we are observing, is a clear oversupply of euro (all selling) and weakening demand (less international interest in euro) on universal scale. Buyers failed to break the supply line and April opened below the demand line with a gap. Top Absolute Correlation 1 EURUSD - USDX -96.8% 2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8% 3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7% 4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9% 5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7% 6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6% 7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9% 8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7% 9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7% 10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5%
TVC:EXYShort
by ICFX
EURUSD TD outlook for 4 hrsThat is how we see it, pretty simple. One can use ATR stop for stops (pretty accurate tool), which is based on average true range (the input can be changed). The broken demand line is more important than descending one (trendline value is measure by the number of consequent highs or lows above the extremums). I saw some of you draw a descending triangle but by TD rules we can not make a triangle, because there is no relevant TD point below the top TD P5. We have 2 horizontal levels below on the way which price has to get through (with struggle of course) and to retest those after the breaks (!). DM projection sends price into the "free fall zone". We will see. Good luck! THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. You are solely responsible for you trading decisions:) Top Positive Correlation 4 hrs 1 EURUSD - NZDUSD 83.2% 2 EURUSD - AUDUSD 80.5% 3 EURUSD - GBPUSD 79.7% 4 EURUSD - AUDJPY 78.2% 5 EURUSD - US2000 75.8% 6 EURUSD - GER30 74.9% 7 EURUSD - SPA35 73.7% 8 EURUSD - AUDCHF 71.3% 9 EURUSD - FRA40 70.7% 10 EURUSD - AUDSGD 69.3%
Short
by ICFX
2
EURUSD TDN3 breakdown validI know it is hard to understand this if you do not study the "The New Science. Technical Analysis" (1994) of T. DeMark and "Methods of Wall Street Master "(1991) of V. Sperandeo on trends and trendlines . But price is projected to drop to 2000 lows with retest of the last minor demand line which we are about to break (with its consequent retest that is likely to follow). It is sad that most of modern traders still live before 1990s, engaging in shamanism, art and intuition (and worst, imposing their subjective art on others) when there are proven scientific methods of price prediction. I am not the best new science analyst but that is what I identified and is pretty obvious. Top Absolute Correlation 1 EURUSD - USDX -96.8% 2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8% 3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7% 4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9% 5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7% 6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6% 7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9% 8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7% 9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7% 10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5%
Short
by ICFX
DM breakdown validHere I did 2 DM projections as regard where EURO index is gonna land. There are 3 ways to do DM post breakout projections. 1. From uppermost shadow to the trendline - works 60 % 2. From the shadow of a candle with highest close to the trendline - works 90 % 3. From the highest innermost shadow to the trendline - works 90 % Then you just clone the measurement to the breakdown point and project it. Very simple. Good luck! Top Absolute Correlation 4 hrs 1 EURUSD - USDCHF -99.1% 2 EURUSD - USDHUF -97.2% 3 EURUSD - EURHUF -94.6% 4 EURUSD - USDSEK -94.4% 5 EURUSD - USDSGD -94.1% 6 EURUSD - AUDUSD 94.0% 7 EURUSD - USDCNH -93.5% 8 EURUSD - US500 93.2% (S&P 500 Index) 9 EURUSD - AUDCAD 92.5% 10 EURUSD - GBPUSD 92.5%
Short
by ICFX
breakdown on GU,EU key points on them good morning traders, so this is a little breakdown on GBPUSD and EURUSD and what i'm looking at for the upcoming weeks, there's a lot of room on both pairs and now we just need to wait for the time or the confirmation before we take them, don't get the fear and greed of missing out as this can play on your feeling and emotions with trading we don't want this, be the best you can be and follow what price is telling you, fear will crush you in the long run learn to be patience and wait for its hands first i hope this helps and would love to know what you guys think all stay safe and have a great weekend!
by LucasMatthew
4