$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2%
(October/2024)
+0.3%
source: EUROSTAT
-Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates.
This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates.
Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target.
In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%).
On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
Eu50
$EUGDPQQ -Europe's GDP (Q3/2024) ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ 0.4%
Q3/2024
source: EUROSTAT
- The Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% on quarter in the three months to September 2024,
the strongest growth rate in two years, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.2%
The German economy expanded 0.2%, surprisingly avoiding a recession, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q2.
GDP growth also quickened in France (0.4% vs 0.2% in Q2) and the Spanish economy remained robust (0.8% vs 0.8%).
In addition, the Portuguese economy grew 0.2%, the same as in Q2 while the GDP in Ireland (2% vs -1%) and Austria (0.3% vs 0%) rebounded and grew faster in Lithuania (1.1% vs 0.3%).
On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and Latvia remained in contraction (-0.4% vs -0.3%). Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since the Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%.
The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year.
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024)
source: European Central Bank
- The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June.
The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively.
This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well.
In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years.
While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025.
Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing.
The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
$EUINTR -ECB Cuts Interest Rates for 2nd Time
- The European Central Bank cut the key deposit interest rate by 25bps to 3.5% as expected, after a similar reduction in June, and a pause in July, reflecting an updated inflation outlook and better transmission of policy.
At the same time, the interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility were lowered to 3.65% and 3.90% respectively.
source: European Central Bank
EU 50 potential SHORTWait for the market direction to shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, or vice versa, in order to determine the most appropriate entry level to achieve more lucrative outcomes.
It is essential to implement appropriate risk-reward ratio, diversify your portfolio, and avoid excessive leverage in order to minimize losses and maximize profits.
European Stocks falls📉 - Whats next?Hi Traders,
the EU50 lost over 3,5% within the last 2 days.
Is this only the first drop before big selloff 📉📉?
Or a normal consildation? Which zones are important?
If we look at the Chart the longterm Uptrend is still valid. So for now it looks like its a normal consolidation.
Important Zones are:
Support: Zone between 4350 and 4300
Resistance: 4500
Also the EMA200 is still moving upwards and the market is right at this zone building a possible reversal (bullish Engulfing).
So there is a possible long trade option.
Wish you maximum success!
Michael - tegasFX
Joe G2H - Selling EU50Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Double top completed on the daily chart. Lower prices expected.
Entry Level: 4253.5
Take Profit Level: 4205
Stop Loss: 4275
Risk/Reward: 2.3/1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head - EU50 Correction expectedTrade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Major resistance on the weekly chart
Entry Level: 4393
Take Profit Level: 4347
Stop Loss: 4412
Risk/Reward: 2.25/1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - EU50 Breaking from a wedgeTrade Idea: Buying EU50
Reasoning: Breaking from a wedge
Entry Level: 4316.6
Take Profit Level: 4365
Stop Loss: 4291
Risk/Reward: 2:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Speculative sell on EU50.Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Speculative sell, stalling at the highs?
Entry Level: 4324.1
Take Profit Level: 4204
Stop Loss: 4343
Risk/Reward: 6.91:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
#Short EU50Short position taken based on Dow theory.
Entry taken after observing bearing signal of three inside down candle pattern
EU50 , get ready for correction wait for the confirmation level to get hit, soon we will see the correction
FESX1!: MACRO TO MICRO CORRECTIONS / TRAJECTORY / EUREX MARKETDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have made my best attempt in attempting to provide a MACRO VISUAL AID for the current state of the EUROPEAN MARKET.
POINTS:
1. DEVIATION was estimated using highest point of 5500 POINTS & LOWEST POINT OF 2000. POINTS were summed and divided by 2 giving an average and same was done for all other SUPPORTS (WHITE LINES).
2. SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS were placed accordingly in regards to deviation and in respect to NATURAL CHANNEL MOMENTUM.
3. NOTICE HOW MACRO CORRECTIONS OCCURRED BEFORE 2009 WHILE MICRO CORRECTIONS TEND TO OCCUR IN A MORE CONSISTENT CHANNEL AFTER 2009.
4. RSI also agrees with PAST MASSIVE CORRECTIONS & ONGOING MICRO CORRECTIONS.
5. RSI PATTERN THAT IS FOUND TO BE AT LESS OF AN INCLINE EQUATES TO A MORE STABLE MARKET RALLY.
*IMPORTANT: IF CONSISTENT PATTERNS ARE ANYTHING TO GO BY RSI INCLINE INDICATES THAT CURRENT MARKET RALLY SHOULD END AT OR AROUND JANUARY 2024. DESPITE THIS CURRENT RSI IS OVERBOUGHT AND IS LOOKING TO RETEST.
SCENARIO: WITH CURRENT OVERBOUGHT RSI LEVELS AND A RECENT REJECTION OF 4188 POINT FUTURE PRICE ACTION CAN SEE SOME DOWNTREND WITHIN CURRENT CHANNEL BEFORE WE COME TO SEE A JUMP INTO HIGHER SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET. WITH THIS SAID 3900 IS A CRUCIAL LEVEL TO HOLD IF WE DON'T WANT TO SEE HEAVY DOWNSIDE.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
EUREX:FESX1!
Porsche ( $P911 ) Short ideaOne of the iPOs that I've tracking, and following a standard pattern. Together with a short term (or likely more) top in EU indices, we should see this go much lower after the initial move liquidating early shorters and now FOMO buyers. Red line is stop loss, Green lines are TP1 and 2, respectively. GL
Euro Stoxx 50 Index bullish extensionEURO STOXX 50 INDEX: Potential for bullish extension towards 3,950 and 4,000 in the short term (5 to 25 days). This can be technically supported by the fact that current price is above its 4 and 40 week moving averages, the clearing above the 3,810 August (17th high) and the facts that both the 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators are above their respective zero lines (above zero), as well as the KST indicator crossing above its signal line. Therefore, long positions can be technically supported for the short term provided price can remain above the 3,810 support.
S&P 500 to outperform Eurostoxx 50 as recession hits Europe?The S&P 500 index may perform noticeably better than the European stock market ( STOXX 50 ) in the event that the European Union experiences a sharp economic downturn.
The S&P 500 to EURO STOXX 50 ratio, which gauges the relative strength of the US stock market in comparison to the EU stock market, has been largely flat so far in 2022.
In the past, when the Euro Area economy contracted faster than that of the United States, the S&P 500 index significantly outperformed its European counterpart.
The S&P 500 gained 50% more than the EURO STOXX 50 between August 2001 and December 2003, at a time when the Euro Area's GDP growth was materially lower to that of the United States.
The S&P 500 outperformed the EURO STOXX 50 by 82% between May 2007 and October 2012, as the EU economy lagged far behind the US.
More recently, from October 2017 to July 2020, the US stock market recorded another period of outperformance relative to the European stock market, with the S&P 500 rising 56% relative to the EURO STOXX 50 amid a global economic downturn and the pandemic outbrake.
What is coming up next? The EURO STOXX 50 could enter another period of relative underperformance relative to the S&P 500 if another significant economic slowdown occurs in Europe due to the impact of the energy crisis and inflation on consumption and investments.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
Jamie Gun2Head Idea - Selling EU50Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Looking for secondary aggressive selloff
Entry Level: 3602.0
Take Profit Level: 3476.0
Stop Loss: 3634.0
Risk/Reward: 3.94:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on EU50Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Head and shoulders top with a gap fill
Entry Level: 3765
Take Profit Level: 3700
Stop Loss: 3785
Risk/Reward: 3.58:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - False breakout on EU50?Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: False breakout on EU50? Bears to return ahead of ECB meeting?
Entry Level: 3955
Take Profit Level: 3533
Stop Loss: 3621
Risk/Reward: 2.31:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.