Macro Monday 38 ~ The EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMacro Monday 38
The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index &
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
(Released this Tuesday 19th Mar 2024)
ZEW is the German acronym for the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, which translates to the Centre for European Economic Research.
There are two releases from the Centre for European Economic research we will cover today both being released this coming Tuesday;
1. The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
(Reading of 25 for Feb 2024)
2. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
(Reading of 19.9 for Feb 2024)
EURO AREA ZEW INDEX
This index is derived from 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the overall European Area. They include economists and analysts from different countries in the Eurozone that are using the Euro as their currency (20 countries out of the 27 members). In summary, while the EU ZEW index provides a broader perspective for the entire eurozone than the German ZEW Index discussed below, the exact methodology for distributing the surveys and their apportionment across individual countries within the eurozone is not explicitly disclosed. Historically, this index has proven very useful as a leading indicator of sentiment for the European Economy and it is closely monitoring for gauging economic sentiment in the EU by market participants.
EURO AREA ZEW CHART - SUBJECT CHART ABOVE
How to read the chart
The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the EU chart is 21.39 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism.
The current reading of 25 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 month
The Trend
Sentiment made a recovery from -60 in Sept 2022 to +25 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory to just above the historical average of the chart which is 21.39.
GERMAN ZEW INDEX
The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge.
GERMAN ZEW INDEX CHART
How to read the chart
The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism.
The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism.
The Trend
Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet.
Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too
Thanks for coming along
PUKA
