EURUSD Long idea FIB movelooking for a 61.8% fibonacci retracement and monthly key level breakout, retest and then continuation. (61.8% lines up perfectly with monthly level)
Eulong
EU Long Following RSI DivergenceLast week, I had published a buy prediction that hadn't panned out due to too tight of a SL. I'm still considering EURUSD a great long opportunity due to the 4H RSI divergence, MACD crossover, and 0.618 fib support. This descending channel has held up pretty well over the past few days, but a breakout of that would strongly favor my position. Personally, I see a falling wedge/channel formation after a fall as a sign of seller's exhaustion.
Position open at 1.06526. TP1 at 0.383 fib (1.07430). TP 2 at 0.618 fib (1.08040). **The bottom of the purple fib line is slightly misplaced, but I'll stick with those targets. I'm going to monitor my position after TP1 if it's hit, to determine whether I'd like to remain in a long position. I'm monitoring my SL. Use your discretion, but the bottom of the descending channel (black), the bottom of the ascending lower trendline (blue), and below the 0.786 fib level (red) are some ideas. I'm slightly worried that the lower, blue trendline will act as a magnet for support.
200 EMA (orange) is right above this descending channel, so it's something be aware of. Depending on how price reacts around that level, I may tp early. I'll update this idea when necessary.
Thank you for your views. I welcome your opinions!
Brief, Conservative Long on an EU RetracementEntry - Already in at 1.06815
TP - 1.07490
SL 1.06430
Looking for a retracement from this week's Article 50 fall. The price has stalled at the 1.618 fib extension from the most recent price climb, RSI is oversold, and MACD is near a crossover on 4h. Target probably won't be reached until next week if it is hit, but this appears to be a good entry point for a short-term long position, in my opinion.
My SL is below the 0.618 fib from the most long term uptrend. Based on past S&R, there may be safer SL levels, but this risk reward isn't as favorable as I'd like, so I didn't want to stretch it.
Good luck!
Upcoming Long or Short Opportunity: EU at Converging TrendlinesI'm mostly on wait-and-see-mode with this trade, but there's opportunity for large, longterm profits in EU. I'm looking at this inverse head and shoulders pattern/symmetrical triangle. Here are two scenarios I'll be tracking if/when the price hits the 1.07940 area:
1) Inverse head and shoulders neckline is broken. In this case, we are in for a longterm uptrend (TP targets would be identified later). I would recommend buying into this trend after a brief retrace to around the 1.08000 level (psychological support after breakthrough).
2) Continuation of trend within the symmetrical triangle. In my opinion, this is the more rational scenario given Eurozone instability (Brexit, elections) and U.S. strength. Also, my MACD and RSI techs indicate a potential reversal. This is a medium-term downtrend to a TP at 1.06000 (again, a nice psychological level).
Symmetrical triangles are traditionally neutral in nature, so I wouldn't be surprised if the lower trendline acts as support for a pivot up. I'll be monitoring this and will provide updates to my idea.
Good Luck!
EU Long off of Rate Hike Spike RetraceThis idea is dependent on a retrace from from the initial spike off the Fed rate hike announcement. This was a strong move up and the price could very well hit my target before my entry position is hit, making this invalid.
-Entry - 1.06900
-Stop Loss - 1.06650
-Take Profit - 1.07830
It may be beneficial to view a chart at a larger timeframe to understand the structures I'm going to describe. The price had broke through a inverse head and shoulders neckline (1.06150), then rebounded off a small symmetrical triangle's upper trendline. Price hit support off that neckline and broke through the triangle's trendline. This is why I'm suspecting we see a retrace back to that triangle prior to testing the upper trendline of a larger symmetrical triangle (lot's of triangles and words there).
The trendline is above my take profit and aligns closely with a neckline to a larger inverse head and shoulders pattern (1.0795). It's possible we could break out of this zone for a longer term uptrend, but I feel this is a safe take-profit for this specific trade.
Good luck!
EU prep for an up trend BUY @ 1.131 SL @ 1.270 and TP at @ 1.150 ( we might see some unusual movements due to BREXIT rumors but EU is a buy for both short and long term )
EURUSD - Possible triangle completion with a Bat confirmation.What more can you ask for the start of 2016? We have a possible Bat and Triangle completion of a second wave correction of a higher degree.
Some might count this whole triangle as a B wave correction. Nevertheless its a correction of an up move and a clear wave formation. So we are looking for the next impulse to the upside. This gives us the chance for a pin point entry with a tight stop loss.
