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Euphoria

BITCOIN $94K to $145K !!🌱 BTC exit plan strategy - Currently in larger degree of Wave 5, which is the shortest dated and most aggressive wave up. I'm expecting it to peak around $94k to $100k being an achievable target with an optimistic target of $145k. After that, we'll probably see a distribution phase driven by euphoria--think soft landing hype and trump's crypto endorsements. As BTC hits those highs, altcoins are likely to catch all the liquidity and start outperforming. When the bullish sentiments peaks, that's probably the real-mid cycle top everyone's been talking about. I also think that this consolidation phase lasted for so long, so when BTC breaks out of this range, it creates a MASSIVE EMOTIONAL GAP and everyone will start FOMO-ing in.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by chase_ID
1
A cyclical historyWe have all heard that the economy works in cycles, and so does the market. But what does this truly mean? Has anyone actually been able to show you where you can see these cycles occur? Well, here is a great graph that will show you how. By looking at the 6-month time frame, the percentages of stocks above the 20 daily MA, you are achieving 2 things. Seeing price action at the timeframe used to declare technical recessions Seeing the percentage of stocks in a short term uptrend or downtrend as the complement is also true Here it's quite easy to see how an important world event unfolded with a clear, repeatable pattern. When the percentage oscillates heavily, it allows for many technical resets, causing a healthy uptrend when the percentage returns to above 50% by the end of the semester. Another patter is that after a period of over-performance, a period of under-performance is followed and vice versa. When looking at world events, just remember at the end of the day we are all a number in a larger scheme. And the laws of statistics will end up controlling our outcomes, as there must be balance in all binomial systems. Even when biases can be present in distributions, the more we generalize and zoom out, the more we can see the statistical convergences in human behavior. At the end of the day, our lives are influenced by fractals, some of which we are not even aware exist.
MEducation
by DarkMessiah777
Are we heading into euphoria or a technical reset?Here we can clearly see that the market structure keeps trending up, in very aggressive manners. Many technical resets have been made, and recently we went through one that lasted almost the entire Biden administration. Even though this reset is great for price action, it seems that it is quickly becoming parabolic. If price continues to behave in this manner, then we could be headed into euphoria. It's crazy to think that the yield curve has been inverted for this long. Failure to reset technicals could bring us into a period with great short term yield. This could potentially captivate novice traders to become overconfident. Start paying attention to people around you if we keep on trending upward. Is your common foe suddenly talking about stocks and investments? I personally don't feel that way yet. But I can't deny the excitement people feel of finally reaching new time highs. I'm not saying we are heading into a crash right now. But technicals and fundamentals are beginning to line up for what seems to be extreme optimism with flashing warning signs. I don't feel too confident in this market and would prefer to be buying at lower prices and see price trend up slower. A reset is necessary, or else we will be headed into an unhealthy and very violent uptrend.
SP:SPXLong
by DarkMessiah777
2
What does a bull market look like?Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Pessimism: Following the 2008 crisis, the global economy was engulfed in a cloud of pessimism. Investors were gripped by fear and uncertainty as financial institutions crumbled, economies contracted, and unemployment soared. Stock markets experienced significant declines, and investors became cautious, bracing themselves for further turbulence. This initial stage of pessimism laid the foundation for the birth of a new bull market. Skepticism: As the dust settled and economies started to stabilize, skepticism took hold. Investors remained cautious, wary of another downturn and skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery. However, as central banks and governments implemented unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures QE1,2 & 3, confidence began to slowly seep back into the markets. Gradually, investors started to see signs of improvement, albeit with a sense of skepticism. Optimism: The bull market gained momentum as skepticism transformed into optimism. Economic indicators started showing signs of recovery, corporate earnings improved, and investor sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook. This stage witnessed increased buying activity, as investors sought to capitalize on the upward momentum. As the market continued to rally, optimism became the prevailing sentiment, driving prices higher. Euphoria: The final stage of a bull market is characterized by euphoria, a state of extreme excitement and irrational exuberance. During this phase, investors become overly optimistic, disregarding potential risks and buying into the market frenzy. This euphoria is often fueled by widespread media coverage and the fear of missing out (FOMO). In this stage, valuations may become detached from underlying fundamentals, leading to excessive speculation and a heightened risk of a market correction. Conclusion: Since the last cycle low established during the 2008 crisis, we have witnessed the birth and evolution of a remarkable bull market. From the depths of pessimism and fear, it grew through skepticism and optimism, ultimately reaching a state of euphoria. It is essential for investors to recognize these stages and exercise caution, especially during the euphoric phase when markets may be prone to excessive speculation and unsustainable valuations. While bull markets provide ample opportunities for wealth creation, it is crucial to remain vigilant and focus on long-term investment strategies that align with underlying fundamentals. By understanding the cyclical nature of bull markets, investors can navigate the ever-changing landscape of financial markets with greater confidence and resilience. Reference of Nasdaq: E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
Fireworks continues - Uncontrolled -Can we do circuit breaker Circuit breaker level - Lets see. We are waiting for FED officials which is mostly not that interesting , but now they can wipe the market with few words - the opposite also works. Do not forget : Control the inflation means the FED wanna see huge lay-offs. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Longer view If you see job-market report shows layoff you buy if not sideline or if you wish just open a short. VALID UNTIL 08/02/2023 - 18:00 Budapest Time
U
by ElGatoTrade
Ring Ring whose there : Hi there we are adani bearsIt is not a financial advice am not a professional I don't take responsibility for your loss or this post is not to hurt anyone sentiment or reputation it is for educational purposes....... This is a follow-up on the last idea bbwp is giving a low bbwp read and weekly macd has also changed colour for Lot of peoples going to get rekt here, many will say stocks are scam and all that as well the worst part here is this stock will bring Indian markets down as well and Indian banking sector as well www.thehindubusinessline.com if you make money in stocks, run with it, don't hold and think that magic show will continue take your money and run before it get ugly Over leveraged fraudster of India, world 3rd richest man or a country where Nearly 80 % of India lives on half dollar a day due to a magical peacock owner, you know whom I am talking
NSE:ADANIENT1!Short
by k902
Wall St Cheat Sheet Says Bitcoin (BTC) in hopium phaseThis is just for fun. I'm predicting we are in the hope phase of the Wall St Cheat Sheet. If you think about it. That describes what everyone is doing...hoping that BTC is adopted by more people and moves into the next phase (optimism). I do not believe BTC is crashing. We might have even seen the yearly bottom put in after it found support at the bottom of the channel it's been in. Bitcoin looks very healthy and in an uptrend. The trend is your friend until the end. Traditionally, it's been the best time to buy at the bottom of the channel. Usually though nobody does because it feels like it's going to fall off a cliff.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by XYZ-Trader-
5
Nasdaq end of market cycle(crash)Hey guys, it's been 14 years since the last true end of market cycle crash(though I could argue 2016 was a crash of sorts). Taking a look at the previous 2 market cycles leading up to the 2000 and 2008 crashes, you can see the logarithmic trendline highlighting the euphoria phase of the stock market prior to the subsequent crashes. All in all, there is little to suggest that this breakdown of the log trendline that marks significant moments in the market will not lead to a stock market crash as it did in 2000 or 2008, especially considering inflation, high valuations, excessive margin, speculation(even though the speculative growth bubble is largely popped), and the simple fact that the Nasdaq has been up 13 consecutive years. Though many sectors are beaten down, I expect future legs down to be more violent as more and more sectors enter downtrends that previously weren't(namely agriculture) that will plummet the indices with them. In the immediate term, I expect there to be whipsaws both to the downside and upside, but I expect the resolution to be significantly lower by the end of summer.
TVC:NDQShort
by MichaelEugen1
TOTAL3 - Alt Season Could Be Just Around The CornerIn a previous idea i've compared eth price with what btc did in may- aug 2017. TOTAL3 (crypto m. cap excluding btc and eth) looks even more similar than eth does. We see clear initial fall in the summer, then barely setting new highs, before turning down, heading into the lows, maybe go even lower a bit. We should expect HUGE reversal to the upside. This is because one vital element is missing here. We haven't altseason for nearly 80% of all the altcoins. Many of which haven't even rally 1/3 of what they did in a previous cycle, even though they are listed on all major exchanges, and have a use case. (XRP, DASH, EOS, XMR, ZEC, IOTA...) I expect one final flush to come, then euphoria... I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by CR35
7
Quickpost: Ethereum similarities comparing late 2017 and nowThe price action on Ethereum has clarified quite a bit over the last couple of weeks as have the crypto market generally. Just a few period ago the price action was below both spans of the ichimoku cloud (crypto settings) with a whole red candle body and below the MACD EMAs with most of a red candle body after a MACD-Signal cross. Generally that is very bearish. I have not shown it but there are plenty of examples where uptrends have been ripped to shreds under these conditions. So I do admit some surprise that price has recovered so neatly. The chart covers quite a bit so I shan't be too repetitive. Price action being above the both spans after a slapdown below both spans without a cross is pretty bullish. Same with price going below the MACD EMAs and not crossing. This is one reason why I like to visualize the MACD EMAs as you can see sometimes the EMAs themselves interacting with price action with price riding the 12 bullishly or being rejected by the 26 bearishly. We have less than 30 hours before the weekly candle closes and it is very probable that the MACD-Sigal cross will complete. I haven't show it, but it is also pretty clear that there is a bunch of bullish divergence in the MACD histogram to basically ever other histogram low of all time so that increases the odds of a sustained MACD cross and the positive price action that causes that. There is a pesky trendline that needs to be watched. That is the euphoria line and when it gets crossed price action could double in a week and then we start the painful process of going through the crash and hangover. The linked idea is similar, except it compares the daily SMA and EMAs. The best view image in the chart is here though: The linked idea TLDR:When the daily EMAs and SMAs both stack bullish price has been impulsing and will likely continue.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
Ma, is that a W?It's cool to see the year long trends I've drew a while back still continue to act as supports and resistances with the action we've been seeing in SPX. Looks like there is a bullish W on the 4hr that has formed that can continue us to previous ATH or close to it. On the daily chart MACD, MFI and RSI all looked primed to lead this higher for possibly one last push. How long will this push last? lol who knows... The tips of the wedges meet in middle of June and July though its rare for wedges to go all the way to the end. Either way all of the markets are pretty gnarly. That's all folks
CME_MINI:ES1!
by moonman777
1
DON'T BUY ETHEREUM NOW!!Drop a like if this helps you out, its free! :) Here are some reasons why buying ETH right now is a bad idea 1: Everyone is being overly bullish right at a major resistance 2: There is hidden bearish divergence being formed on the daily 3: Declining volume suggest that we haven't yet broken any ranges and so we are not yet clear for a uptrend 4: Global funding is relatively high If you do want to buy ETH rather wait for a close above $390 and a large spike in volume
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by BitcornBen
3
No one catches entire trends. Start by OTP only a small part. Markets trend. Those trends can be divided in 3 + 1 phases: Phase 1: Other names include Accumulation/Reversal/Wave 1 No one really know we are in phase 1 until much later. Phase 1 is very often followed by a deep correction. This was spotted by Elliot (from Elliot Waves) as well as Dow I think? From the market itself this appears to be true. We can see it for ourselves. So we know 2 things, assuming those are true: a- Phase 1 only truly materializes until the trend is well established. b- Phase 1 very often will correct to 78.6% or more. So clearly, catching reversals, assuming it is possible (it is but I think most pro's hate it and most retail only wants to do this), will realistically never let people ride entire trends. Assuming the goal is to make money not lose it being wrong all the time with awfully low RR. Paul Tudor Jones said "For twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops." Retail that has no rules no discipline and generally no clue are the ones that all absolutely want to catch tops and bottoms. The irony. From OG's we often hear not to try to catch falling knives that no one can win but some people do it so it is possible simple proof. Would I recommend it to the eager thirsty noob that think he will buy bottoms then sell tops? Yes, but just to have a good laugh. The full PTJ quote is "Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all the money by catching the trends in the middle. Well, for twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops." Some examples: And so on. What people think they'll manage: What profiteers claim to provide to people that want to catch tops and bottoms Bitcoin 2014 bear market => Starts with several big retraces. Bitcoin 2018 bear market Bitcoin 2019 top hunting EURSEK I went for this reversal (chart is reversed) And well... it did not continue... So good thing I got out! Then you also have to greedy money grabbers. Let it run, but not too much. It is not possible to get the whole trend out of it. If someone can do it then welcome richest person in the world. Phase 2: Meat of the move/Wave 3 Things start getting positive/negative. That's really when things reverse into a new trend, and after it goes higher/lower than phase 1 participants start to notice and start thinking that it is possible we are in a new trend. It is often the biggest part. The trend, with 1 being the start and 3 the end. This is the most important and most lucrative one so I'm keeping it short here. It's not that fun to just follow a well established trend. Unless you are in and it keeps going your way and you keep screaming it will go to zero like a crazy person. Now that is alot of fun (: Phase 3: The end/Wave 5/Distribution/Ending Euphoric/Vertical/Exhaustion/Divergence/Ending Diagonal/Etc 1000 names I like wikipedia description on that one: "Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately (?), this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)." I doubt anyone knows or recalls for the older ones how bears were treated back in 2000. My teachers in high school said I had a contradictory spirit. Some after hgih school said I "thought I knew things". LOL 😆. What they meant is other people are idiots and I am not. Not my fault the herd is always wrong. I am not going to pretend to be stupid just to "fit in with the herd of sheep". They're still struggling teaching high school kids and I'm chilling treating the market as my personal ATM. And then you got the suckers that get excited at the top. The most non-subtle example is Bitcoin permabulls. Wow those guys. They have been bagholding for 2-3 years now. They'll still be bagholding in 5 and I'll be counting my millions. We'll see who'll (still) be laughing. Playing reversals is possible because it is rather obvious when the herd starts getting interested and gets crazy. Being obvious does not mean there is a magical way to call the exact top, and it will often take several losses before getting it right. Concerning magical top & bottom calling, well I will get into it further down this idea :) And then there is the opposite. Note at the time there was no way to know as far as I am concerned where the bottom/top would be, which is why we make a list of tops/bottoms and play carefully. If someone knows where tops and bottoms will be then show me your trillions: It does not always just end up vertical at the top... Phase +1: ABC, the correction Yikes. No thank you. There are 5861 types of correction (more or less). Often very choppy and disgusting. This is bad. Don't trade corrections. Let day trader-gamblers lose money through commissions and get caught in massive moves against them when it breaks. All together You're taking risks for profit. This top & bottom calling thing, and expecting to catch the whole move, is truly delusional. Even in his most famous trades George Soros did not catch everything. Don't go too early, don't be difficult or you'll miss it. It's hard to balance it out. I have to stop going too early (too late for reversal and too early for meat of the move) Need to be careful with conditions before rushing in. Got the perfect exit never have any issues. There is no perfect way to filter out the trash, no perfect way to know what will be a good entry... Get punished for doing the right thing, get rewarded for doing the dumb thing... Those that do not know this and won't quit, will eventually learn An entry system truly worthy of the greatest myfxbook robots 💩 and Bitcoin trading experts 🤤.
Education
by MrRenev
3