EURUSD 30 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI GDP / US CFThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Sentiment from Monday (April 29th) could carry over to Tuesday, depending on the outcome of Eurozone data releases (CPI, GDP) and US ( Consumer Confidence). A strong Euro today due to positive data might see some continuation.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development needed.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
No much change from yesterday, we still ranging within a Bullish INT Structure within a Bearish Swing.
Possible Longs from the the current fresh 15m demand but be mindful that we swept the Liquidity below it and the 15m Bearish Swing could continue and run the INT Low.
Shorts are currently not my interest till we have another Bearish Swing.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
Eur\usd
EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Bias with Short-Term Bullish PotentialTraders,
Here's our analysis across different timeframes:
Daily Chart: Strong bearish sentiment prevails, supported by a bearish channel formation, signaling potential long-term bearish trajectory.
4-Hour Chart: Consider the high of last week as a prime level for short positions. However, be prepared to switch to a bullish outlook if this level is breached.
15-Minute Chart: Look to short the pair for intraday trading opportunities, with a clear entry point at the cluster of pivot points, a reversal point and previous week high.
Be caution and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
Best regards,
EURUSD 29 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - GER CPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, limiting significant movement in the pair. However, the intervention in JPY leading to a USD weakness which will provide support for EURUSD some Bullish stand.
Also note that the current week includes EU CPI and US FOMC / NFP which most probably result in a volatility and investors are positioning for that upcoming news events.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
Currently price at a 15m/4H Supply zones that could initiate the Swing continuation phase.
Possible Phase B Shorts but be mindful that the 4H INT Structure still Bullish and we may see another deep Swing pullback which will reflect on a Bullish 15m Swing BOS.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
EURUSD 28/4/24Starting off as we do most weeks with EURUSD we gave out this idea way back at the start of this month and we are finally starting to see price line up with our bias, now of course as always we are waiting for an idea we have to line up and provide context tot the higher time frame move to then allow us to trade on the lower time frames, this is now in play from the view of the 1hr chart as you see marked on our chart here!
At the end of last week we had a nice break to the downside leaving some clear spaces for us to watch to confirm this downside shift, after all we spent most of last week travelling up with speed and momentum.
now because we see a sign this might be changing i am looking to confirm this and sell into the daily and weekly trend of down!
Points to watch this week.
FVG on this new hourly range, OB at the top of the range that gave this move the power it currently has.
Remember we aren't picking and choosing what price does we trade what it chows us and add relevance and context depending on where it decides to do certain things.
Trade what you see, not what you believe you should be seeing!
EURUSD 29-3 May 2024 W18 Weekly Analysis - FOMC / NFP Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-3 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Potential EUR Upside:
Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints.
Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro.
Potential EUR Downside:
Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar.
Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen.
Overall:
The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price currently within a Weekly demand zone that can initiate a minor Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone.
We didn't mitigate any HP Supply to initiate the INT Structure continuation phase so the scenario will be that price still could continue to mitigate the Daily Supply Zone.
Other scenario that with the corrective more currently we are in price will continue down without the mitigation of a Supply zone.
More price development required / LTF confirmations for the 2 scenarios.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello folks,
I am generally bearish on EURUSD at the moment, and I am still waiting for lower prices, but we could see more bullish momentum first. The logic behind this is of course to lure more bullish traders into the market, but I also do not see any significantly high impact news yet.
However, if you see my other analysis, I am looking for a monthly close below the Monthly iFVG in order to be used as resistance, as mentioned in my previous analysis. That being said, take this trade idea as less than a A+ setup. Most of the probability of this trade lies price being at a ranged Discount, and in the efficacy of my R2F Gap coupled with a possible London Judas Swing.
Safe trading!
- R2F
EURUSD 26 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US PCE Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15 Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
PCE as the next hurdle: The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is the key event today. This data is a crucial inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve.
Potential scenarios based on PCE:
Higher than expected PCE: This suggests stronger US inflation, which could bolster the USD. Investors might anticipate a more hawkish stance from the Fed (raising interest rates), making the USD a more attractive investment. This scenario could weaken the Euro.
Lower than expected PCE: This suggests cooling inflation, potentially weakening the USD. If inflation is under control, the Fed might be less aggressive with rate hikes, making the USD less appealing. This scenario could strengthen the Euro.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
Current Sub-INT structure doesn't have any clear Demand and we are currently within the Supply Zone formed during the news yesterday and with PCE today, i'd expect high volatility similar to yesterday.
Today for me is a day to analyze and not to trade 😃
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
With the Swing containing Bullish and Swing Low did hold the volatility yesterday, I couldn't find a clear POI within the Swing to continue Bullish except the Demand down.
Expectations with the current PA is that the Weak Swing High will get run. But be mindful that today US PCE news will have the market ranging till the news.
As indicated in the 4H analysis, Today is the day where you analyze and don't trade as more clear setups will be available next week.
3.
15m Demand for possible longs if we are continuing Bullish.
EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows.
US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains.
Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand.
Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high.
As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long: Phase A
Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS)
2.
Price mitigation to the 4H Demand.
3.
Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish.
With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High.
But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.
EURUSD is approaching an important resistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08000 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD 24 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US Durable GoodsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
EURUSD is slightly bullish: The Euro is currently showing some strength, having gained yesterday strong Euro data and on weaker US data.
Market is cautious: Upcoming US inflation data is keeping investors cautious, potentially limiting gains for the Euro. US Durable Goods will be the watch today for volatility.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
As expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.
Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign fora bearish reaction from the 4H Supply.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long: Phase A2
Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS)
2.
Price had created another Bullish Swing BOS aligning with the HTF requirements for a Pullback.
Price had reached 4H Supply zone which could initiate the Swing Pullback Phase. For a PB phase to start we need a Bearish iBOS.
3.
Current INT Low is the 4H Fractal CHoCH
EURUSD above the 4H MA50 after 2 weeks.The EURUSD pair broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time in almost 2 weeks (since April 10). Our long-term bearish Target (1.05500) is intact, as called on April 02 (see chart below):
The 4H MA50 test should be a rejection though as it has been done while the pair is forming a Bear Flag. That is similar to the February 12 test which resulted into one final drop on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down.
We expect a strong medium-term rebound after the price hits 1.05500 and our Target will be 1.0800, which is marginally below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, the mark that priced the March 08 (Lower) High.
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EURUSD 23 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - EU/US PMI Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Today's EUR/USD Forex market is going to be influenced by big economic news. This includes updates on the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both the Eurozone and the USA.
Right now, the EUR/USD pair is ranging as we get ready for today PMI updates. Both the US and Europe will be releasing their PMI numbers today.
These PMI numbers tell us a lot about how well the economy is doing and can really impact the EUR/USD. If the numbers come in higher than expected, it's likely good news for the currency, but if they're lower than expected, it could mean trouble for the currency.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
With the INT Structure Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH, Price is ranging within the Fractal High/Low. No clear direction and price is ranging between Weak Supply / Demand but expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT and Swing Pullback Phases.
4.
4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Swing Continuation Phase
2.
Price is ranging within the Bullish 15m Swing with INT structure is shifting between Bullish/Bearish.
This is clear that we have a complex INT Structure which shows uncertainty of clear direction.
3.
With the current INT Structure is Bullish, Expectations is set to continue Bullish and run the Weak INT High to target the Weak Swing High as long the INT Strong Low holds.
Another mini wave Upward for EUR/USD(4/22/2024)In our last analysis, EUR/USD FX:EURUSD Continued the bearish move and right now the price is ranging.
We believe the price will move upward as a correction.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.
EURUSD 22 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - EU ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
The sentiment for the EUR/USD pair today is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors. On one hand, the Eurozone economy has been sluggish, which is holding back the Euro. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance is keeping the US dollar underpinned.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
With the INT Structure Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH. Price had a deep PB to the 4H Demand formed.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT and Swing Pullback Phases.
4.
4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase
2.
INT Structure turned Bearish after mitigating the 4H Supply zone.
Sub internal is currently Bullish and there is a HP that the Strong INT High will get run based on the Bullish Swing Objective and the current Swing Continuation Phase.
3.
15m Demand Zones nested within a partially mitigated 4H Demand.
Wouldn't be much confident to look for long entries from here if we didn't have a Bullish BOS as when price is here it will mean that INT is so bearish that the current 15m Swing Low / 4H Low will be run.
EURUSD 21/4/24EU here now confirming our low we spoke about last week!
because of this we will be sticking to our markup from last Sunday, due to this we don't have a huge amount of context to add to this markup. for more info feel free to check the chart from last week!
We have 2 zones of supply we are looking at but i am not expecting price to get up into our highest point.
Trade safe and stick to your risk!
EURUSD 22-26 Apr 2024 W17 Weekly Analysis – EU PMI / US PCEThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 22-26 Apr 2024 W16 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
In light of the recent passage of an aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan by the U.S. House of Representatives, it is anticipated that this could escalate geopolitical tensions. This, in turn, may prompt investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, thereby bolstering the strength of the U.S. dollar. This trend is likely to be further reinforced by the divergent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The market will also be looking at the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
Price could initiate a PB at anytime or after reaching the Daily Extreme Demand.
CHoCH is currently away from current price so maybe we can create a new low before we initiate the INT PB Phase.
More price development required.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
With the INT Structure Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH. Price had a deep PB to the 4H Demand formed.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT and Swing Pullback Phases.
4.
4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.
Economic Events for the Week
Euro can decline to buyer zone again and then start to riseHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price a not long time ago entered to downward channel, where firstly it broke the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and rose to the resistance line of the channel. Next, the price turned around and soon fell to the seller zone, but later price tried to back up and failed, after which in a short time Euro declined to support line of the downward channel, breaking the 1.0815 level. But then, the price started to rise and soon backed up to the seller zone, after which it some time traded near this area, and then made a strong downward impulse to support level, exiting from the channel and breaking the 1.08150 level one more time. Price started to trades near the 1.0620 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and sometimes it even declined to this area, but a not long time ago EUR rebounded up. So, in my opinion, the Euro can decline to the buyer zone again, and then repeat movement up higher current location. For this case, my 1st TP is located at the 1.0740 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD One last dump before the pump?The EURUSD pair is approaching the 1.05500 Target that we called on April 02 (see chart below), which is at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Down:
That will form the new Lower Low of the pattern, completing a -4.00% decline from the Lower High, which is 100% symmetrical with the previous Low. The structure of the Legs is very symmetrical so after the Low we expect the pair to turn bullish on the medium-term again. Our Target will be 1.0800 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
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EURUSD 19 Apr 2024 W16 - Intraday Analysis - Middle East TensionThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 19 Apr 2024 W16 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Prior to delving into the Intraday Analysis, I emphasized the significance of the ongoing Weekly Analysis, particularly in light of heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran's strike on Israel. Monitoring these tensions and the subsequent reports from Israel regarding a response to Iran's strike, it's crucial to anticipate the potential for another volatile weekend, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe havens such as the US Dollar, GOLD, JPY, and CHF. Stay alert to any shifts towards safe havens today amid the uncertain situation in the Middle East leading into the weekend.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
With the Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH. Price had a deep PB to the 4H Demand formed with the Middle East Tension.
Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish / Sub Internal Bearish
Swing Continuation
2.
After a BOS we expect a PB. INT Structure turned Bearish to facilitate the Swing Pullback.
3.
With the tension in Middle East. Pulled back to the Swing extreme mitigating the last 15m Demand zone within the 4H Demand.
Expectation is set to the 15m Swing Low to hold and target the Weak Swing High to facilitate the 4H Pullback Phase.
EURUSD 18 Apr 2024 W16 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Apr 2024 W16 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
As expected the PB started after the Bullish CHoCH forming a new Demand Zone and confirming the Bearish INT Structure Low.
Expectations is set for continuing Bullish till a HP POI.
4.
4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
As expected, price created a Bullish BOS based on the 4H/Daily need for a Pullback.
After a BOS we expect a PB. As INT structure is Bullish, a Bearish iBOS will be the confirmation that the 15m Swing PB is starting. But be mindful that price in a Bullish momentum and a deep Swing PB is not often happen on the start of the move.
Following the Bullish Phase we are in, looking for longs is the best option till the mitigation of the close 4H Supply zone.
3.
Extreme Demand zone within the 15m Swing for possible Longs if reached.
But be mindful if we reached this Demand, PA is not looking in Bullish momentum and there will be a HP that the Swing low will be run.