Analysis Euraud : 📅 10/7/2022EURAUD analysis:
Due to the weakness and the formation of a downward trend, we were looking for a sell position in the correction, and we entered the transaction with the specified stop and profit limit.
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price: 1.52700
SL: 1.53500
TP1:1.51400
TP2: 1.50100
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👤 Alireza hajighasem : @alirezahajighasem
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📅 10.7.2022
Eur-aud
EUR is about to offer a great selling opportunity in daysEUR is fundamentally bearish currency due to all sorts of problems. It will turn down at some point.
Technically, there are no more clear levels to the upside, only the yellow Break of Structure near 1.556 This means there will likely be a significant spike above where we are now.
But I will not enter hastily. I also watch other charts and I would like SP500 to top in the Premium Zone between 0.5 and 0.8 Retracement. This needs to happen at roughly the same time. Both SP500 and EUR started to rally at roughly the same time, both shall die at the same time, also.
EURAUD To see a lower correction.EURAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.5000 (stop at 1.4925)
Previous support located at 1.5050.
Previous resistance located at 1.5100.
A lower correction is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.5100 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.5150 and 1.5200
Resistance: 1.5100 / 1.5150 / 1.5200
Support: 1.5050 / 1.5000 / 1.4950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURAUD a bull flag on the 0.618 🦐EURAUD on the 4h chart is creating a bull flag, with the price that perfectly tested with the lower spike the 0.618 Fibonacci level over a daily support.
The price has bounced over the structure and is now trading below the upper trendline and a resistance area.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the EU market open and IF the price will break the area i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Buying EURAUD on dips.EURAUD - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.4900 (stop at 1.4825)
Previous support located at 1.4950. Previous resistance located at 1.5000.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.5000 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.5050 and 1.5075
Resistance: 1.5000 / 1.5050 / 1.5075
Support: 1.4950 / 1.4900 / 1.4850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURAUD Recurring Channel Up hints to buying the pull-backThe EURAUD pair recently broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and came just one step before testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which caused (on July 01) the last major rejection. We can see the possibility of a Channel Up emerging, in the same formation as those of November - December 2021 and March - May 2021. Notice the similarities on the 1D RSI sequences.
As long as the 1D MA200 is unbroken, it would be best to buy any pull-back that occurs below the 1D MA50and target, initially, the 1D MA200.
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EUR/AUD under heavy selling pressureEURAUD respected the key long term resistance, thus validating the downtrend. Throughout this week, price bounced off the lower trendline of the descending channel, which is currently acting as yet another resistance. We can expect the continuation of the downtrend, towards the 161.8% Fibs.
Looking to sell the EURAUD resistance.EURAUD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.4925 (stop at 1.5000)
Previous support located at 1.4850.
Previous resistance located at 1.4900.
Prices expected to stall near trend line resistance.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 1.4850 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.4775 and 1.4750
Resistance: 1.4900 / 1.4925 / 1.4950
Support: 1.4850 / 1.4800 / 1.4775
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EUR/AUD:SHORT For SHARK Pattern RESISTANCE RSI Stoch SELLShark Pattern on EUR/AUD with the D point or reversal point exactly in confluence with a Resistance line. RSI turned Bearish and Stochastic Ready to fall from the overbought area. Additionally, the price had a strong rejection from the 200 Moving average.
EURAUD- 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves).
Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
EURAUD looking up 🦐This pair after the break of the descending channel is trading below a daily resistance.
The market after a series of lower low and lower high create a higher low.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a potential break of the resistance area and in that case i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
EUR AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
Persistently high inflation has seen the ECB tilt more hawkish by hiking rates 50bsp in July. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and drought-linked supply constraints has seen ECB members get more uneasy about price pressures, with comments last week suggesting that there is growing support for a 75bsp hike in September. This saw some initial upside in the EUR, but it’s important to remember that the bank quelled hawkish excitement at the July meeting by saying that frontloading hikes are not a signal of a higher terminal rate. Until that changes, higher rate expectations are likely only going to have short-lived upside potential for the Euro . Spread fragmentation, even though largely moving into the background, is still a concern, with the ECB failing to ease the market’s spread concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Even though policy is important, the main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data has continued to flag recession risks and as energy concerns increase so too does the likelihood of stagflation. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, thus, any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does re-opens gas flows after the planned shutdown it should ease some pressure. Any good news on Rhine water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does not re-open gas flows after the planned shutdown it should add downside risks. Any bad news on Rhine water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which has continued to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak.
AUD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD gave back most of its 1Q22 gains throughout 2Q22 due to China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While other major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China was expected to grow (with monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative), but we are yet to see the new additional stimulus measures spill over into the soft and hard data. The expected recover, if it happens, remains a key consideration for the AUD. Our view in 1Q22 was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but the market proved us wrong on that assumption. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we maintain a neutral bias for the AUD.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary support, or stopping their covid-zero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or overly bullish CPI, or wage data could trigger some bullish reactions.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD and remains a course of concern. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, but concerns about consumers & growth means any overly dovish comments could trigger some bearish reactions.
BIGGER PICTURE
The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China, whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding, and how long China struggles to recover their previously expected growth trajectory. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. Also keep in mind that the AUD is currently the most stretched among the other majors versus the US Dollar, so AUDUSD could be considered on any decent positive catalyst.
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.4363).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. EURAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 73.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.4460
TP2= @ 1.4501
TP3= @ 1.4559
TP4= @ 1.4606
TP5= @ 1.4713
SL= Break below S2
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💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.4363).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. EURAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 73.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.4460
TP2= @ 1.4501
TP3= @ 1.4559
TP4= @ 1.4606
TP5= @ 1.4713
SL= Break below S2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ?
Now, It's your turn !
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️