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EUR-CAD

EURCAD Trade with break-outsThe EURCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the September 20 2021 High. Right now it is consolidating after the July 13 Low, being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 28. Also below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, this calls for extended selling to new Lower Lows as it happened two times before within the Channel Down. However a break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), should initiate a short-term push to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), as it happened on February 03. Similarly, a candle close above the 1D MA200, should signal a complete long-term trend shift from bearish to bullish. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURCAD on a double bottom 🦐EURCAD on the 4h chart is trading below a resistance level . The price after the long bearish trend creates a DOUBLE BOTTOM and is now looking for a retracement to the upside. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the structure and in that case, i will look for a nice long order according to the Plncton's strategy rules. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
1
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURCADTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.3090). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . EURCAD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 57. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.3221 TP2= @ 1.3307 TP3= @ 1.3398 TP4= @ 1.3526 TP5= @ 1.3768 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
10
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURCADTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.3090). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . EURCAD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 57. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.3221 TP2= @ 1.3307 TP3= @ 1.3398 TP4= @ 1.3526 TP5= @ 1.3768 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
4
EURCAD moving to the 1.32 ? 🦐EURCAD on the 4h chart is testing the support area at the 1.34 level. The price has tested the level a few times and a break below can be expected. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the level and in that case i will set a nice short order according to the Plancton's academy rules. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
22
EURCAD approaching the bottom of its Channel Down.The EURCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since September 2021 Triple Top. Such Double/ Triple Top Resistances are important as even in the one time the price broke above the pattern, it got rejected (February 07) on the Resistance of the previous High (Double Top), which also happened to be where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was. On the short-term, we can buy and target the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (around 1.33800). Only a break above the previous (Lower) High (1.37200) can turn the long-term trend around. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The EUR has had a bumpy ride over the past few months. At the onset of the war in Ukraine the EUR tumbled across the board. However, in recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank confirming at least a 25bsp hike for July and possibility of a 50bsp hikes in September. Despite the hawkish policy shift, the concerns over fragmentation in bond spreads like the BTP\Bund spread as well as fears of growing stagflation risks has seen the EUR struggled to hold onto any real momentum. The ECB did try to comfort spread concerns this past week with an ad-hoc meeting and decided to use PEPP reinvestments as a way to calm fragmentation. This was not enough to calm concerns though as reinvestment would amount to only 20 billion Euros per month. However, the bank’s decision was enough to push the BTP\Bund down 50bsp, and if that trend continues lower should be supportive for the EUR. The bank did back up their attempts at calming fragmentation fears after their ad-hoc meeting by saying they are looking at introducing an additional ‘tool’ as quick as possible, so markets will be focused on any insights into what that might be. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Geopolitics remains a focus for the EUR, where any possible de-escalation or cease fire in the Ukraine war would open up a lot of appreciation for the EUR. Stagflation fears are high right now for the Eurozone, with growth expected to slow while inflation stays persistently high. However, a lot of bad news has already been priced in for the EUR, which means any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some upside for the single currency. ECB Lagarde testifies before the EU’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs this upcoming week. If Lagarde talks up even more aggressive policy or offers enough conviction that they will handle any spikes in BTP\Bund spreads could trigger some bullish reactions in the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Fragmentation risks in spreads will remain a hot topic next week, and if ECB’s Lagarde fails to calm market’s fears or if she walks back on some of the hawkish takes for rates following their recent meeting (to help spreads) it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Just like the EUR’s weighting in the DXY is an upside risk for the currency, the weighting is also a potential downside risk. Any potential catalysts that spark short-term upside in the Dollar (upside in yields, risk off sentiment, very hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials) can trigger upside in the USD and weigh on EUR. As growth is a concern in the Eurozone the incoming flash PMIs will be watched closely, and any bigger-than-expected contraction in PMIs could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the EUR remains neutral right now as we have positive and negative forces impacting the currency. On the negative side we have geopolitics, stagflation and spread fragmentation acting as negative drivers. But we also have hawkish ECB policy and better-than-expected recent growth data as supportive drivers. Thus, the best course of action with the EUR right now is taking short-term plays which are driven by clear short-term bearish or bullish catalysts. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we have very little appetite for chasing it higher from here and will be actively looking for opportunities to trade the CAD lower with the right type of bearish catalyst. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a very solid House Price Index print could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though a lot of tightening has been priced in for the BoC , a big enough surprise in CPI that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term support. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation ) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. A big miss in the House Price index could trigger more speculation of a less hawkish bank and could trigger some downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s move much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of upside priced into the CAD and Canadian yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD would be to look for short-term negative catalysts to trade the CAD lower instead of chasing it higher.
by thunderpips