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EUR-CAD

EURCAD moving to the 1.32 ? 🦐EURCAD on the 4h chart is testing the support area at the 1.34 level. The price has tested the level a few times and a break below can be expected. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the level and in that case i will set a nice short order according to the Plancton's academy rules. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
22
EURCAD approaching the bottom of its Channel Down.The EURCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since September 2021 Triple Top. Such Double/ Triple Top Resistances are important as even in the one time the price broke above the pattern, it got rejected (February 07) on the Resistance of the previous High (Double Top), which also happened to be where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was. On the short-term, we can buy and target the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (around 1.33800). Only a break above the previous (Lower) High (1.37200) can turn the long-term trend around. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The EUR has had a bumpy ride over the past few months. At the onset of the war in Ukraine the EUR tumbled across the board. However, in recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank confirming at least a 25bsp hike for July and possibility of a 50bsp hikes in September. Despite the hawkish policy shift, the concerns over fragmentation in bond spreads like the BTP\Bund spread as well as fears of growing stagflation risks has seen the EUR struggled to hold onto any real momentum. The ECB did try to comfort spread concerns this past week with an ad-hoc meeting and decided to use PEPP reinvestments as a way to calm fragmentation. This was not enough to calm concerns though as reinvestment would amount to only 20 billion Euros per month. However, the bank’s decision was enough to push the BTP\Bund down 50bsp, and if that trend continues lower should be supportive for the EUR. The bank did back up their attempts at calming fragmentation fears after their ad-hoc meeting by saying they are looking at introducing an additional ‘tool’ as quick as possible, so markets will be focused on any insights into what that might be. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Geopolitics remains a focus for the EUR, where any possible de-escalation or cease fire in the Ukraine war would open up a lot of appreciation for the EUR. Stagflation fears are high right now for the Eurozone, with growth expected to slow while inflation stays persistently high. However, a lot of bad news has already been priced in for the EUR, which means any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some upside for the single currency. ECB Lagarde testifies before the EU’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs this upcoming week. If Lagarde talks up even more aggressive policy or offers enough conviction that they will handle any spikes in BTP\Bund spreads could trigger some bullish reactions in the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Fragmentation risks in spreads will remain a hot topic next week, and if ECB’s Lagarde fails to calm market’s fears or if she walks back on some of the hawkish takes for rates following their recent meeting (to help spreads) it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Just like the EUR’s weighting in the DXY is an upside risk for the currency, the weighting is also a potential downside risk. Any potential catalysts that spark short-term upside in the Dollar (upside in yields, risk off sentiment, very hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials) can trigger upside in the USD and weigh on EUR. As growth is a concern in the Eurozone the incoming flash PMIs will be watched closely, and any bigger-than-expected contraction in PMIs could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the EUR remains neutral right now as we have positive and negative forces impacting the currency. On the negative side we have geopolitics, stagflation and spread fragmentation acting as negative drivers. But we also have hawkish ECB policy and better-than-expected recent growth data as supportive drivers. Thus, the best course of action with the EUR right now is taking short-term plays which are driven by clear short-term bearish or bullish catalysts. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we have very little appetite for chasing it higher from here and will be actively looking for opportunities to trade the CAD lower with the right type of bearish catalyst. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a very solid House Price Index print could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though a lot of tightening has been priced in for the BoC , a big enough surprise in CPI that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term support. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation ) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. A big miss in the House Price index could trigger more speculation of a less hawkish bank and could trigger some downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s move much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of upside priced into the CAD and Canadian yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD would be to look for short-term negative catalysts to trade the CAD lower instead of chasing it higher.
by thunderpips
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The EUR has had a bumpy ride over the past few months. At the onset of the war in Ukraine the EUR tumbled across the board. However, in recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank confirming at least a 25bsp hike for July and possibility of a 50bsp hikes in September. Despite the hawkish policy shift, the concerns over fragmentation in bond spreads like the BTP\Bund spread as well as fears of growing stagflation risks has seen the EUR struggled to hold onto any real momentum. The ECB did try to comfort spread concerns this past week with an ad-hoc meeting and decided to use PEPP reinvestments as a way to calm fragmentation. This was not enough to calm concerns though as reinvestment would amount to only 20 billion Euros per month. However, the bank’s decision was enough to push the BTP\Bund down 50bsp, and if that trend continues lower should be supportive for the EUR. The bank did back up their attempts at calming fragmentation fears after their ad-hoc meeting by saying they are looking at introducing an additional ‘tool’ as quick as possible, so markets will be focused on any insights into what that might be. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Geopolitics remains a focus for the EUR, where any possible de-escalation or cease fire in the Ukraine war would open up a lot of appreciation for the EUR. Stagflation fears are high right now for the Eurozone, with growth expected to slow while inflation stays persistently high. However, a lot of bad news has already been priced in for the EUR, which means any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some upside for the single currency. ECB Lagarde testifies before the EU’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs this upcoming week. If Lagarde talks up even more aggressive policy or offers enough conviction that they will handle any spikes in BTP\Bund spreads could trigger some bullish reactions in the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Fragmentation risks in spreads will remain a hot topic next week, and if ECB’s Lagarde fails to calm market’s fears or if she walks back on some of the hawkish takes for rates following their recent meeting (to help spreads) it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Just like the EUR’s weighting in the DXY is an upside risk for the currency, the weighting is also a potential downside risk. Any potential catalysts that spark short-term upside in the Dollar (upside in yields, risk off sentiment, very hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials) can trigger upside in the USD and weigh on EUR. As growth is a concern in the Eurozone the incoming flash PMIs will be watched closely, and any bigger-than-expected contraction in PMIs could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the EUR remains neutral right now as we have positive and negative forces impacting the currency. On the negative side we have geopolitics, stagflation and spread fragmentation acting as negative drivers. But we also have hawkish ECB policy and better-than-expected recent growth data as supportive drivers. Thus, the best course of action with the EUR right now is taking short-term plays which are driven by clear short-term bearish or bullish catalysts. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we have very little appetite for chasing it higher from here and will be actively looking for opportunities to trade the CAD lower with the right type of bearish catalyst. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a very solid House Price Index print could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though a lot of tightening has been priced in for the BoC , a big enough surprise in CPI that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term support. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation ) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. A big miss in the House Price index could trigger more speculation of a less hawkish bank and could trigger some downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s move much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of upside priced into the CAD and Canadian yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD would be to look for short-term negative catalysts to trade the CAD lower instead of chasing it higher.
by thunderpips
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL The EUR has had a bumpy ride over the past few months. At the onset of the war in Ukraine the EUR tumbled across the board. However, in recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the Governing Council take a more hawkish turn. At their June meeting the bank confirmed that a 25bsp hike for July, but also kept the door open for 50bsp hikes from September onward. Despite this hawkish tilt from the bank, and despite bund yields pushing up into fresh cycle highs, the EUR struggled to gain any real momentum after the meeting. For some this was a sign that the market had already priced in too much hawkishness for the ECB. This seems a bit unlikely though as the bank faces more energy price risk compared to the US and is at a greater risk of needing to tilt even more aggressive in months ahead. One reason for the downside is due to the market’s worries about fragmentation with spreads like the BTP/Bund spread jolting higher as higher interest rates increases the default risk of highly indebted countries like Italy. Even though hawkish policy opens up room for upside, the spread fragmentation and USD strength means there is two-way drivers for the EUR. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES The customary post-ECB sources revealed some GC hawkish were still not satisfied despite a hawkish tilt. Any ECB comments that signal even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions for the EUR. Geopolitics remains a focus for the EUR, where any possible de-escalation or cease fire in the Ukraine war would open up a lot of appreciation for the EUR. Stagflation fears are high right now for the Eurozone, with growth expected to slow while inflation stays persistently high. However, a lot of bad news has already been priced in for the EUR, which means any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some upside for the single currency. The EUR has a 57% weighting in the DXY, which means any big fluctuations in the USD can impact the EUR quite a bit. Thus, this week’s upcoming FOMC could offer some reprieve for the EUR if the Fed is not able to surprise on the hawkish side. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES One caveat with incoming ECB comments is that hawkish comments can also counterintuitively pose downside risk. With markets quite concerned about spread fragmentation, hawkish comments that trigger further upside in BTP/Bund spreads could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Just like the EUR’s weighting in the DXY is an upside risk for the currency, the weighting is also a potential downside risk. With US headline CPI reaching 8.6% there is a risk that the Fed surprises markets with a 75bsp hike at the upcoming meeting. Any outsized upside in the USD as a result of that is expected to weigh on the EUR, potentially more than other majors. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the EUR remains neutral right now as we have positive and negative forces impacting the currency, we have geopolitics, stagflation and spread fragmentation being negative inputs and we have more hawkish ECB policy and less bad than expected recent growth data as supportive drivers. Thus, the best course of action with the EUR right now is taking short-term plays which are driven by clear short-term bearish of bullish catalysts. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown in the US should have deteriorated the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market risks to negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed, potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to economy and the risks to the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly positive and hawkish. We’ve miss most of the move higher in the currency as we’ve been cautious in our bias, but the risks are still present and with the currency at 9-year highs (at the index level) we have very little appetite for chasing it higher from here. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s move much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of upside priced into the CAD and Canadian yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD would be to look for short-term negative catalysts to trade the CAD lower instead of chasing it higher.
by thunderpips
EURCAD | short trade opportunity 👀- For today's trade, we have EUR/CAD. It's trending towards the downside on all the higher time frames, and all the moving averages are nicely following the trend as well. - We have a 1-hour bearish engulfing candlestick closure, breaking all the moving averages and suggesting bearish power in the market. - The trade has some room to move before it will re-test daily support, so at least 30-40 pips. - The hedge funds are indicating that EUR is being sold off while CAD is being bought. - There is no news today for EUR, but tomorrow we will have CPI news, which might have an impact on this trade.
Short
by fxtraderkristina
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The ECB used the April meeting as a place holder meeting for the most part by not announcing any additional policy tweaks. The plans to phase out the APP into Q3 remained intact by reducing purchases from 40bln to 30bln in May and then down to 20bln in June. Markets were leaning towards a slightly more hawkish take from the bank (given recent inflation pressures), but the lack of conviction to remove the conditionality regarding the APP removal was seen as dovish. President Lagarde added to this dovish tone by explaining that Q3 has three months and IF the bank stops the APP, it could happen July, August or September. This was an important statement as the difference between a July and September end could mean the difference between a Q3 or Q4 rate hike. The president also added to the dovish tone by stressing that risks for the economic outlook are tilted to the downside and have recently intensified with geopolitical and virus-related challenges. When asked about policy normalization, the president made a strange comment by saying it is premature to think about monpol normalisation. As the bank is currently embarking on normalization this comment seemed out of place and reaffirmed the overall dovish take from the meeting. There were the usual sources releases after the presser which said policymakers see a July hike as still possible after Thursday's meeting, which provided some reprieve. With inflation >7% and growth slowing, the June meeting which accompanies staff economic projections will be critical for markets to solidify whether expectations of 1 or 2 hikes this year is correct or not. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics Growth differentials still favour the US over EU capital flows, but differentials have turned positive and remain positive against the UK. Given growing stagflation fears the ECB is in a tough spot, being forced to normalize policy to try and combat inflation but could as a result further damage growth. Ongoing EU fiscal discussions to possibly allow ‘green bonds’ NOT to count against budget deficits remains in focus, alongside debt issuance for energy purchases. If approved, it will offer a flood of fiscal support which would be positive for the EUR and EU equities. Geopolitics remain a focus point as well given the ongoing war in Ukraine, but after the initial geopolitical scares but have been trying to carve out a base. Proximity to the war and the impact of sanctions remains a risk if the situation deteriorates. With lots of negatives already priced, chasing lows on bad news is not as attractive as chasing the EUR higher on good news. 3. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish signal with all three major categories seeing another week of net-long weekly changes. It seems as if all three categories added longs at the worst possible time last week as the EUR failed to garner much upside momentum. With recent growth & inflation differentials turning in favour of the EUR we prefer trading the EUR higher on good news as opposed to chasing it lower on bad news right now. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In June the BoC delivered on market expectations by hiking rates by 50bps to 1.75% and kept its QT process intact. The statement-only decision was interpreted as more hawkish than expected with the bank saying it was ‘prepared to act more forcefully if needed’ to meet its inflation target. This saw markets implying either a few more additional 50bsp hikes or potentially opening the door to 75bsp hikes. The bank also delivered a hawkish tone regarding price pressures, noting that risks of elevated inflation becoming entrenched had risen and price pressures was persisting well above target. The biggest surprise was the lack of any real concern regarding growth. Instead, the bank was very optimistic about activity by noting it was strong and still operating above trend. The lack of concern about the clear slowdown in growth in their biggest trading partner, and the lack of concerns about debt levels and the housing market was a big surprise for us. Instead of sounding concerned about falling house prices and its possible effect on the economy, they welcomed the drop as a sign that their normalisation process is taking effect. To summarize, the bank remained much more hawkish than we anticipated and means our neutral bias for the CAD is taking a bit of a beating as CAD continues to trade at 9-year highs at the index level. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand , global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility . We remain cautious oil , but geopolitics are a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Positioning was more mixed last week for the CAD, but we continue to think that markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. As always though, timing those shorts will be very important.
by thunderpips
5
EURCAD Bullish OutlookEUR is getting stronger with the expectations of hawkish stance from ECB. It forms a falling wedge pattern with CAD, breaking the upper bound of the falling wedge on the four hour graph. Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the trend. If the pattern continues, the pair might try to reach 1.36 On the other hand, if the trend reverses, EURCAD might try to test its previous low at 1.339 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial
EURCAD at supportHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price can touch SUPPORT. Wait for a reversal candle . Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us
Long
by Ryan_lopes