Eur-chf
Utilizing EURCHF break of yesterday low.EURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 0.9659 (stop at 0.9694)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
20 1day EMA is at 0.9660.
The primary trend remains bearish.
Our profit targets will be 0.9571 and 0.9551
Resistance: 0.9710 / 0.9730 / 0.9750
Support: 0.9690 / 0.9660 / 0.9630
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURCHF to be capped by yesterday high.EURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9791 (stop at 0.9816)
The primary trend remains bearish.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Our profit targets will be 0.9726 and 0.9716
Resistance: 0.9730 / 0.9760 / 0.9790
Support: 0.9700 / 0.9660 / 0.9630
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURCHF still on a bearish momentum 🦐EURCHF after the recent low below the 0.95 area create an upside impulse in the past days.
The price retest the previous higher low but couldn't close above.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a potential break below the support area and in that case i will look for a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
--––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURCHF Short with possibility of massive full point hike by SNBHey traders as Switzerland suffers from inflation and in order to fight the Swiss Franc depreciation we see a strong possibility of a full point rate hike by the Switzerland National Bank on Thursday meeting, prior to that we will be monitoring EURCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.96800 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURCHF to extend losses?EURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 0.9629 (stop at 0.9651)
The primary trend remains bearish.
A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
Our short term bias remains negative.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 0.9575 and 0.9565
Resistance: 0.9660 / 0.9680 / 0.9700
Support: 0.9640 / 0.9620 / 0.9600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURCHF Double Bottom targeting a new High.The EURCHF pair has been on a 3 day rise since the September 13, staging it on a Double Bottom pattern. The short-term Resistance is the 1D MA50. This formation resembles the January 2022 pattern both in candle terms and in 1D RSI, which as you see are identical.
The Jan 22 pattern after a fake-out above the 1D MA50 and subsequent rejection to a Double Bottom as well, it started a strong rally to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, if the price breaks the 1D MA50 again, we'd expect a bullish extension all the way to the 0.5 Fib, which is a little above 1.000. A break below the September 15 Low though can invalidate this pattern and start a strong sell sequence towards the -0.5 Fib extension.
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eurchf can form a good bullish move As you see #eurchf has reached to a monthly support zone that is it`s lowest rate(around 0.95000_0.96000)
It seems it is forming a double bottom in daily time frame and we can expect an upward moment at least to 0.98400 in upcoming week.
so we wait for a correction in 4h time frame.
overall i think euro will have good week at least until FMOC conference on wednesday night.
EURCHF Sell a break setup.EURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 0.9629 (stop at 0.9651)
Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
A break of bespoke support at 0.9630, and the move lower is already underway.
We look for losses to be extended today.
The bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is negative for sentiment.
Our profit targets will be 0.9577 and 0.9567
Resistance: 0.9650 / 0.9680 / 0.9700
Support: 0.9630 / 0.9600 / 0.9580
EUR CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
Persistently high inflation has seen the ECB tilt more hawkish by hiking rates 50bsp in July. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and drought-linked supply constraints has seen ECB members get more uneasy about price pressures, with comments last week suggesting that there is growing support for a 75bsp hike in September. This saw some initial upside in the EUR, but it’s important to remember that the bank quelled hawkish excitement at the July meeting by saying that frontloading hikes are not a signal of a higher terminal rate. Until that changes, higher rate expectations are likely only going to have short-lived upside potential for the Euro . Spread fragmentation, even though largely moving into the background, is still a concern, with the ECB failing to ease the market’s spread concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Even though policy is important, the main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data has continued to flag recession risks and as energy concerns increase so too does the likelihood of stagflation. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, thus, any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does re-opens gas flows after the planned shutdown it should ease some pressure. Any good news on Rhine water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does not re-open gas flows after the planned shutdown it should add downside risks. Any bad news on Rhine water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which has continued to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak.
CHF
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH
BASELINE
The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Any incoming data (especially CPI on Thursday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data.
BIGGER PICTURE
The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
EUR CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
Persistently high inflation has seen the ECB tilt more hawkish by hiking rates 50bsp in July. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and drought-linked supply constraints has seen ECB members get more uneasy about price pressures, with comments last week suggesting that there is growing support for a 75bsp hike in September. This saw some initial upside in the EUR, but it’s important to remember that the bank quelled hawkish excitement at the July meeting by saying that frontloading hikes are not a signal of a higher terminal rate. Until that changes, higher rate expectations are likely only going to have short-lived upside potential for the Euro. Spread fragmentation, even though largely moving into the background, is still a concern, with the ECB failing to ease the market’s spread concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Even though policy is important, the main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data has continued to flag recession risks and as energy concerns increase so too does the likelihood of stagflation. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, thus, any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does re-opens gas flows after the planned shutdown it should ease some pressure. Any good news on Rhine water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does not re-open gas flows after the planned shutdown it should add downside risks. Any bad news on Rhine water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which has continued to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak.
CHF
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH
BASELINE
The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Any incoming data (especially CPI on Thursday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data.
BIGGER PICTURE
The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.