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Eur-chf

EUR CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Persistently high inflation has seen the ECB tilt more hawkish by hiking rates 50bsp in July. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and drought-linked supply constraints has seen ECB members get more uneasy about price pressures, with comments last week suggesting that there is growing support for a 75bsp hike in September. This saw some initial upside in the EUR, but it’s important to remember that the bank quelled hawkish excitement at the July meeting by saying that frontloading hikes are not a signal of a higher terminal rate. Until that changes, higher rate expectations are likely only going to have short-lived upside potential for the Euro. Spread fragmentation, even though largely moving into the background, is still a concern, with the ECB failing to ease the market’s spread concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Even though policy is important, the main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data has continued to flag recession risks and as energy concerns increase so too does the likelihood of stagflation. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, thus, any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does re-opens gas flows after the planned shutdown it should ease some pressure. Any good news on Rhine water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does not re-open gas flows after the planned shutdown it should add downside risks. Any bad news on Rhine water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which has continued to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Thursday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Downtrend to persist on EURCHFTrade Idea: Selling EURCHF Reasoning: Downtrend to persist Entry Level: 0.9633 Take Profit Level: 0.9553 Stop Loss: 0.9659 Risk/Reward: 3.03:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
Looking for lower prices on EURCHFEURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9615 (stop at 0.9635) Our short term bias remains negative. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. We look for a temporary move higher. 20 4hour EMA is at 0.9615. Our profit targets will be 0.9566 and 0.9556 Resistance: 0.9580 / 0.9600 / 0.9620 Support: 0.9570 / 0.9550 / 0.9530 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
1
Daily signals remain bearish on EURCHFEURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9699 (stop at 0.9721) Daily signals are bearish. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous support at 0.9700 now becomes resistance. We look for a temporary move higher. Our profit targets will be 0.9644 and 0.9634 Resistance: 0.9680 / 0.9700 / 0.9720 Support: 0.9660 / 0.9640 / 0.9620 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
1
EURCHF medium-term BuyThe EURCHF pair has been trading on Lower Lows since June, below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). However since June 29 and its Double Bottom, the 1D RSI started forming Higher Lows, indicating a Bullish Divergence. Being a similar structure to that of September - December 2021, we give higher probabilities of a medium-term rebound towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (1.000), even if one last low is made near 0.9600. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
EURCHF: 2 Scenarios For This Week Explained 🇪🇺🇨🇭 Update for EURCHF pair. The market is nicely retracing from a key daily structure resistance. Analyzing a price action on multiple time frames, I see 2 potential scenarios: Bullish If the price breaks 0.979 - 0.982 daily supply area and closes above that I will expect a bullish continuation to 0.987 / 0.9915 levels. Bearish The market is trading in a global bearish trend and may drop from the underlined blue resistance. To catch a trend-following trade from that, watch a triple top formation on 4H time frame. 0.9755 - 0.9765 is its horizontal neckline. If the price breaks and closes below that on 4H, I will expect a bearish move to 0.9727 / 0.9711 levels. Breakout will clarify the future direction of the pair, so be patient and wait. What scenario do you expect? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
6
Short term bias remains negative on EURCHFEURCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9809 (stop at 0.9831) Our short term bias remains negative. 0.9811 has been pivotal. Previous support at 0.9810 now becomes resistance. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 0.9755 and 0.9745 Resistance: 0.9800 / 0.9820 / 0.9840 Support: 0.9780 / 0.9760 / 0.9740 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
EUR/CHF:REVERSAL | PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS | LONG SETUP 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
1