Eur-chf
"Top and Bottom Analysis" EUR/CHF by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-On April 2019 price broke the ascending trend line
-After that, price started a corrective structure
-As we saw on the weekly analysis the price couldn't surpass the resistance zone and made a breakout of the corrective structure, starting a bearish movement
Based on this, as the price breaks out below 1.13400 with close candlesticks we expect a continuation of the descending movement towards 1.11900
Expect corrective structures to be formed on the way to the support zone
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
Weekly:
Daily:
EURCHF testing key resistance, could possibly drop
EURCHF is testing our first resistance at 1.3295 (61.8% Fibonacci extension,38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it could potentially drop to its support at 1.2657(horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension).
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Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
EURCHF Head and Shoulders, Reversal off .786 FibEURCHF has formed a nice head and shoulders pattern after finding resistance at the .786 fib retracement level. I expect the trend to continue downwards.
My initial target will be the recent support at 1.1353 and my secondary target will be the 1.272 extension of the recent bearish impulse leg--a level that has nice confluence with structure (look left!)
EURCHF Distribution In Progress And About To End?Trading Timeframe: H4 and Daily
Trend: Range
Current Position: Distribution
Aim: Imbalances spotted and aim to short to expect the ranging situation comes to an end to welcome EURCHF downtrend toward the mentioned area.
Action: Short
Entry: Right now/once market open
Stop Loss: around 1.48100
Target Profit: 1.11050
EUR/CHF 1H we can short bearish structure EUR/CHF 1H we can short bearish structure
stop lose = TP1
This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell
It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action
Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of
the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision .
To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully
the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or
commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital .
Good luck >>
Possible trend shift in EURCHF – going short SELL
1.13799 - 1.13977 Add to Watch List
Signal ID: 65299
Time Issued: Friday, 03 May 2019 07:00:16 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.13799 - 1.13977
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.14244
The Tidal Shift Strategy has just sold EURCHF at 1.13888. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.13799 and 1.13977. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.51059, which suggests that the EURCHF could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00071, so the stop loss has been set at 1.14244. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
Possible trend shift in EURCHF – going long BUY
1.13992 - 1.14182 Add to Watch List
Signal ID: 65216
Time Issued: Tuesday, 30 April 2019 09:00:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.13992 - 1.14182
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.13707
The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought EURCHF at 1.14087. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.13992 and 1.14182. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -2.87798, which suggests that the EURCHF could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00076, so the stop loss has been set at 1.13707. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
EURCHF Continues Downward: Reversal off .382 Fib RetracementEURCHF has reversed nicely between the .382 and .5 fib retracement levels. I expect the pair to continue downward. My initial target will be the most recent level of support, and my secondary target will be the 1.272 extension of the impulse leg.
EURCHF Continues Downward: Sell The Retest of Structure!Here we have a great opportunity to short the Euro Swiss.
After a clear Double Top and bearish break of an Ascending Support with clear Oversold RSI + Divergence , we can expect the pair to continue its move downward.
I will look to sell the retest of the 1.142 level of structure--a level that has nice confluence with the . 382 retracement of the current impulse leg.
My initial target will be the 1.3575 level , which again shows strong confluence with the 1.272 extension of the current impulse leg.
A trading opportunity to sell in EURCHFMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 1.1500, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 1.1320 breaks.
If the resistance at 1.1500 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis :
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.1475 on 04/23/2019, so more losses to support(s) 1.1385, 1.1355 and minimum to Major Support (1.1320) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Sell Zone (1.1430 to 1.1475). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set sell orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (1.1430)
Ending of entry zone (1.1475)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Sell zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Shooting Star " or " Peak ", in other words, NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about " Entry signal " and special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.1385
TP2= @ 1.1355
TP3= @ 1.1320
TP4= @ 1.1225
TP5= @ 1.1160
TP6= Free
A trading opportunity to sell in EURCHFMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 1.1500, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 1.1320 breaks.
If the resistance at 1.1500 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis :
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.1475 on 04/23/2019, so more losses to support(s) 1.1385, 1.1355 and minimum to Major Support (1.1320) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Sell Zone (1.1430 to 1.1475). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set sell orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (1.1430)
Ending of entry zone (1.1475)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Sell zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Shooting Star " or " Peak ", in other words, NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about " Entry signal " and special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.1385
TP2= @ 1.1355
TP3= @ 1.1320
TP4= @ 1.1225
TP5= @ 1.1160
TP6= Free
Eur-Chf AnalysisIn the last weeks, CHF (Swiss Franc) has been very weak against all the major currencies. Most likely there is more than one reason about it, including the SNB (Swiss National Bank) that has sold Swiss Francs and bought Euros (as it has often done in the last four and a half years).
Today I analyse Eur-Chf because it has reached an interesting level.
Two aspects are shown in the chart. The first, the price has reached an important area of resistance (1.14700/1.15000) that will hardly break easily.
The second, the 1.13600 level (approximately), the price of Eur-Chf on March 7, the day Draghi announced a new TLTRO for September during the ECB meeting.
The TLTRO (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations) that is the loan of money by the ECB to the credit sector (banks) at particularly favourable conditions, lasting four years to alleviate the problems of collection of European banks and support loans to families and businesses.
In other words, different names (Quantitative Easing and TLTRO) but the same type of operation (loans non-repayable to banks). Yes, because I strongly doubt that at the end of the four years, the banks will repay the loan.
All this translates into greater liquidity on the markets and, therefore, depreciation of the Euro. And if in the short term it is the speculation that moves a currency pair, in the medium-long term they are the fundamentals that decide the right exchange rate. For this, in the coming weeks, we will see a return of Eur-Chf, as the first target, in the 1.12000 area.
Then there would be to do a speech about CHF as a safe haven currency in times of crisis, but given the trend of Wall Street and the new highs reached (Nasdaq) or about to be reached (S&P 500), it is still a premature speech. However, selling Eur-Chf to cover the upward investment in equities, balancing the portfolio, could be a wise idea.