EURCHF Continues Downward: Reversal off .382 Fib RetracementEURCHF has reversed nicely between the .382 and .5 fib retracement levels. I expect the pair to continue downward. My initial target will be the most recent level of support, and my secondary target will be the 1.272 extension of the impulse leg.
Eur-chf
EURCHF Continues Downward: Sell The Retest of Structure!Here we have a great opportunity to short the Euro Swiss.
After a clear Double Top and bearish break of an Ascending Support with clear Oversold RSI + Divergence , we can expect the pair to continue its move downward.
I will look to sell the retest of the 1.142 level of structure--a level that has nice confluence with the . 382 retracement of the current impulse leg.
My initial target will be the 1.3575 level , which again shows strong confluence with the 1.272 extension of the current impulse leg.
A trading opportunity to sell in EURCHFMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 1.1500, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 1.1320 breaks.
If the resistance at 1.1500 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis :
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.1475 on 04/23/2019, so more losses to support(s) 1.1385, 1.1355 and minimum to Major Support (1.1320) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Sell Zone (1.1430 to 1.1475). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set sell orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (1.1430)
Ending of entry zone (1.1475)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Sell zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Shooting Star " or " Peak ", in other words, NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about " Entry signal " and special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.1385
TP2= @ 1.1355
TP3= @ 1.1320
TP4= @ 1.1225
TP5= @ 1.1160
TP6= Free
A trading opportunity to sell in EURCHFMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 1.1500, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 1.1320 breaks.
If the resistance at 1.1500 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis :
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.1475 on 04/23/2019, so more losses to support(s) 1.1385, 1.1355 and minimum to Major Support (1.1320) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Sell Zone (1.1430 to 1.1475). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set sell orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (1.1430)
Ending of entry zone (1.1475)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Sell zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Shooting Star " or " Peak ", in other words, NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about " Entry signal " and special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.1385
TP2= @ 1.1355
TP3= @ 1.1320
TP4= @ 1.1225
TP5= @ 1.1160
TP6= Free
Eur-Chf AnalysisIn the last weeks, CHF (Swiss Franc) has been very weak against all the major currencies. Most likely there is more than one reason about it, including the SNB (Swiss National Bank) that has sold Swiss Francs and bought Euros (as it has often done in the last four and a half years).
Today I analyse Eur-Chf because it has reached an interesting level.
Two aspects are shown in the chart. The first, the price has reached an important area of resistance (1.14700/1.15000) that will hardly break easily.
The second, the 1.13600 level (approximately), the price of Eur-Chf on March 7, the day Draghi announced a new TLTRO for September during the ECB meeting.
The TLTRO (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations) that is the loan of money by the ECB to the credit sector (banks) at particularly favourable conditions, lasting four years to alleviate the problems of collection of European banks and support loans to families and businesses.
In other words, different names (Quantitative Easing and TLTRO) but the same type of operation (loans non-repayable to banks). Yes, because I strongly doubt that at the end of the four years, the banks will repay the loan.
All this translates into greater liquidity on the markets and, therefore, depreciation of the Euro. And if in the short term it is the speculation that moves a currency pair, in the medium-long term they are the fundamentals that decide the right exchange rate. For this, in the coming weeks, we will see a return of Eur-Chf, as the first target, in the 1.12000 area.
Then there would be to do a speech about CHF as a safe haven currency in times of crisis, but given the trend of Wall Street and the new highs reached (Nasdaq) or about to be reached (S&P 500), it is still a premature speech. However, selling Eur-Chf to cover the upward investment in equities, balancing the portfolio, could be a wise idea.
Extreme trader sentiment points to possible EURCHF uptrend
Signal ID: 64919
Time Issued: Monday, 15 April 2019 09:00:16 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.13355 - 1.13507
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.13126
The Trend Follower Strategy has just bought EURCHF at 1.13431. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.13355 and 1.13507. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index is extremely positive, with a value of -1.58683. This suggests that the EURCHF could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00305, so the stop loss has been set at 1.13126. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Trend Follower is a trend trading strategy that aims to buy and hold rising currency pairs and to sell short and hold falling currency pairs. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index is below -1.5, and looks to short when it is above +1.5.
EURCHF Potential Short Coming UpWe see a short opportunity coming up this week for EURCHF however the individual currencies make it unclear at this time.
EXY has no clear direction ATM however we are Bullish Bias
CHF has another week or so of weakness before Bullish Price Action.
Lets see how this plays out
Possible trend shift in EURCHF – going long BUY
Signal ID: 64832
Time Issued: Wednesday, 10 April 2019 17:00:17 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.12926 - 1.13106
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.12657
The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought EURCHF at 1.13016. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.12926 and 1.13106. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at 1.0764, which suggests that the EURCHF could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00072, so the stop loss has been set at 1.12657. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
EUR/CHF long opportunity- The pair is extending bounce off channel base, extends gains for the 3rd straight session
- Price action below cloud and major moving averages, but very short-term averages have turned
- RSI and Stochs have rolled over from oversold levels, MACD is on verge of bullish crossover on signal line
- Bearish divergence on RSI and Stochs on the hourly charts could see minor downticks
Data Released:
- Germany February industrial output m/m increased to 0.7 %, beating forecast at 0.5 % and compared to -0.8 % in the previous month.
- Focus on the performance of yields in Germany and the spread vs. their American counterparts for direction.
Support levels - 1.1207 (5-DMA), 1.1162 (Mar 29 low), 1.1155 (channel base)
Resistance levels - 1.1251 (21-EMA), 1.1269 (38.2% Fib), 1.1297 (55-EMA)
Currency Forecast: Scope for test of 38.2% Fib. Weakness likely on break below 5-DMA.
EURCHF approaching resistance, potential drop! EURCHF is approaching our first resistance at 1.1246 (horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension , 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 1.1168 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
EURCHF approaching resistance, potential drop!
EURCHF is approaching our first resistance at 1.1246 (horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 1.1168 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
EURCHF approaching resistance, potential drop! EURCHF is approaching our first resistance at 1.1246 (horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 1.1168 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
EURCHF long in correlation with my CHF futures analyses Stops got taken on the DailY where it then reacted from a 4h tiny untested 4h level.
as you can see it also took at shorter-term stops on the 4h/1h. This combined with this bullish MS and my bearish BIAS on CHF I think this is a nice little long idea.
Will look to compound this trade above that 4h (future?) breaker that ran out the daily lows.