Sell EUR/AUD Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.6280
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.6192
2nd Support – 1.6152
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6330. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
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EUR (Euro)
Bullish reversal off 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/AUD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.61880
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.61006
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.63341
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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EUR NZD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISThe EUR/NZD currency pair has completed its five-wave cycle, indicating a potential transition into an ABC corrective phase. Traders can anticipate a downward correction with initial price targets aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels. The first target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, providing an early take-profit opportunity as the correction unfolds. Should the corrective wave extend further, the second target is identified at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, offering a secondary profit-taking point. This strategic approach leverages the Fibonacci retracement to optimize risk management during the anticipated correction in the EUR/NZD market.
EURUSD All 4H contacts are sell opportunities.EURUSD has turned completely bearish as after the Sep 25th rejection, it broke under the previous Channel Up and formed a Death Cross on the 4hour time frame.
It continues to be a similar sequence of events as the post December 28th 2023 High.
We expect a similar Channel Down to lead the price lower and every MA50 (4h) test will be a sell opportunity.
Sell and target 1.07700 (-4.00% from the top).
Previous chart:
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Is a New ECB Rate Cut Just Days Away? European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde signaled that weaker-than-expected inflation will be on the agenda at the central bank’s October meeting next week. This has fueled speculation that policymakers could move to cut rates again.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Germany’s sluggish growth has added to the ECB’s challenges. While other parts of the eurozone are showing signs of recovery, Berlin issued a stark warning this week, forecasting its economy will contract for a second consecutive year—a major drag on the region’s broader outlook.
Technical signals also potentially point to downside risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, and a break below the 1.0900 level could see traders targeting the 200-day moving average near 1.08710
EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
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EURJPY: Well supported on the 1W MA100 but needs more to rise.EURJPY is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.394, MACD = 0.690, ADX = 37.501), practically neutral as it's been ranging between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. The long term pattern is a Channel Up since 2021 and the recent 1W MA100 test is the new bottom (HL) of the pattern. The 1W MA50-100 consolidation is the bottom formation and even though it's encouraging we need a crossing over the 1W MA50 in order to validate the new rise. Technically it should be around +18.70% like the previous two. Set your target accordingly (TP = 183.500).
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EURNZD: Final Touchdown Before a Next Big Move! EURNZD
The price is currently in a corrective phase, having reversed from its previous reversal point. This indicates a potential continuation of the upward trend. However, we believe there is a possibility of a sharp decline and reversal from our identified zone at 1.72321. We anticipate the price to reach the 1.8200 level before encountering resistance and reversing. This reversal aligns with our expectation of filling the imbalance zone. Our initial target is set at 1.77969, followed by a second target at 1.83369, and a final target at 1.88539, representing a potential total movement of over 1600 pips. The current price action supports our analysis. We encourage you to conduct your own analysis and consider this as an additional perspective.
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Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0986, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0935
2nd Support – 1.0909
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1005. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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EUR/USD Decline Amid Strong US Dollar Ahead of Key Economic DataAs forecasted in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, continuing its descent over the past two days, reaching around 1.09300 during the London session. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain bullish on the pair. Despite this, the price is approaching one of the two demand areas we've identified, though we are currently awaiting a possible bullish impulse if the price drops to the lower demand zone.
US Dollar Strength and Market Sentiment
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains near its highest level since mid-August as traders have adjusted their expectations regarding a potential 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The likelihood of such a cut has been largely priced out, with current market sentiment suggesting a 20% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. This expectation was reinforced by the hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which underpinned the USD's strength.
DXY ( USD ) Daily Chart
The elevated yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which remains above the 4% threshold, continues to support the US Dollar, acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. The stronger USD, coupled with market sentiment around potential Fed actions, has weighed heavily on the Euro in recent sessions.
Upcoming Economic Data and Market Impact
Today brings several important economic releases that could inject volatility into the market, including:
Core CPI (Consumer Price Index)
CPI y/y
CPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
These reports are key indicators of inflation and employment in the United States, and they could shift the market's outlook for the US Dollar. Currently, the forecasts suggest that the data may work against the USD, potentially leading to an initial bullish move in EUR/USD. However, the ultimate impact will depend on how closely the actual data aligns with expectations.
Our Strategy: Waiting for a Key Demand Support
At this time, we are not opening any positions as we await the price to reach the lowest demand support level. A potential bullish reversal may occur once this level is tested, and we’ll be closely monitoring market movements following today's key economic data releases. Patience remains essential as we look for confirmation of a potential bullish setup.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, driven by USD strength amid expectations of steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve. As key economic data is released today, we anticipate increased market volatility, which could present trading opportunities. For now, we are waiting for the pair to reach critical demand levels before considering any new positions. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to monitor market developments.
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EURAUD to continue in the upward move?EURAUD - 24h expiry
The medium term bias remains bullish.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Bespoke support is located at 1.6235.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
We look to Buy at 1.6235 (stop at 1.6185)
Our profit targets will be 1.6355 and 1.6385
Resistance: 1.6350 / 1.6440 / 1.6500
Support: 1.6235 / 1.6190 / 1.6100
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EUR/USD in Trouble? BofA May Think So Bank of America (BofA) anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates more aggressively than what is currently reflected in the EUR/USD.
This expectation is driven by doubts surrounding the ECB's estimate of the neutral rate and shifting savings and investment patterns within the Euro Area.
Even so, the EUR/USD has dropped to a new weekly low of 1.0950. With the U.S. dollar maintaining a bullish trend across the FX market, the pair may decline further, potentially testing the next support level at 1.0910.
If BofA’s forecast holds true, EUR/USD could revisit the lower highs seen in August and July, signaling a deeper pullback.
EUR/NZD SHORT FROM RESISTANCEHello Traders
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today EURNZD analysis 👆
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EURNZD I Potential short from top of the channelWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURNZD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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EUR/USD Extends Decline as USD Strengthens Ahead of FOMC MinutesAs predicted, EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, which is performing strongly ahead of the much-anticipated FOMC Minutes release. The dollar’s strength is fueled by the market’s expectations of more insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. With the FOMC minutes on the horizon, the price of EUR/USD may drop further, presenting traders with critical levels to watch for a possible retracement.
Technical Outlook: Key Areas for a Potential Rebound
We have identified two crucial retracement zones where a reversal could occur. These levels, based on historical price action and current market sentiment, may offer opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the next potential move. However, patience is essential as we await the market’s reaction to the FOMC Minutes, which could trigger volatility and provide clearer direction.
Sentiment Analysis: Divergence Between Retail and Smart Money
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows an interesting shift in market sentiment. Retail traders turned bearish last week, likely responding to the recent strength of the US Dollar. However, when zooming out to a six-month view, these retail traders are still predominantly long, indicating some indecision in the broader market.
In contrast, Smart Money—typically institutional investors—has begun to accumulate long positions in EUR/USD. This divergence between retail traders and smart money suggests that while short-term sentiment favors a bearish outlook, institutional traders are positioning for a potential upward move in the future.
Patience is Key
At this stage, patience remains the most important tool for traders. With critical levels identified and the market still digesting the strength of the US Dollar, we are awaiting a clear reaction to the price levels shown on the chart. The upcoming FOMC Minutes could act as the catalyst needed to confirm the next big move in EUR/USD.
Conclusion
EUR/USD continues its decline as the US Dollar rallies ahead of the FOMC Minutes. While short-term bearish sentiment dominates the market, institutional players are starting to accumulate long positions, signaling potential for a future rebound. Traders should remain cautious and patient, waiting for a clearer signal before taking action, particularly as we approach key price levels that may offer opportunities for retracement.
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EURGBP: Significant upside potential on the short term.EURGBP is neutral on its 1D techhnical outlook (RSI = 48.804, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 22.675) as it consolidates having failed to cross over the 1D MA50. Given the 1 year Channel Down pattern, the 1D MA50 shouldn't stand as a Resistance for long, since the price is having this rebound after a clear LL on its bottom. We expect the 1D MA200 to be tested (TP = 0.8500) with the upside potentially extending as high as +2.80%.
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EURUSD: Dead cat bounce to 1.10500 expected.EURUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.133, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.825) which given the fact that the price is approaching the LL trendline, it allows for some room to recover some losses. We expect this to be a dead cat bounce but a short term buy opportunity nonetheless. Target the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.10500).
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Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0955
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.0899
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.1048
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EA could see some more potential bounce off the lows/support nowHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
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EURUSD Confirmed sell signal with MA50 (1d) confirmationEURUSD broke below the MA50 (1d) for the first time since August 2nd, which is a technical sell signal.
The MA50 (1d) has been the pivot of the Ascending Triangle and every break below it has delivered more downside.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the next rebound to the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 1.078000 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is posting the same pattern of the December top. Technical sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: