EUR/USD Outlook: Patience Is Key in Uncertain MarketsThe EUR/USD pair is gaining traction as the US Dollar Index retracts from its peak of 107.06, while the euro rebounded from the 1.0500 level yesterday.
The exchange rate remains within a key demand zone, and as noted previously, a price pullback could occur if it breaches this range, leading to retracement opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has remarked that the US economy is performing "remarkably well," which paves the way for a gradual reduction in interest rates.
In contrast, the minutes from the European Central Bank's October Monetary Policy Meeting suggested a growing inclination towards rate cuts, tempered by concerns over domestic inflation.
Today’s release of US Core Retail Sales and overall Retail Sales figures may shed light on the economic outlook. Should the euro continue its upward momentum, traders might contemplate a long position in the upcoming week. Our forecasting model indicates a potential price surge during this period; however, it’s important to recognize that market conditions are influenced by significant movements, including the Trump's rally that has been propelling the DXY to new highs.
Thus, exercise patience before entering any trades is recommended at this stage.
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EUR (Euro)
Potential bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0524
1st Support: 1.0461
1st Resistance: 1.0600
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURNZD I Continue long with 7840 support holding Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURNZD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
EURCHF Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EURCHF is below:
The market is trading on 0.9373 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.9394
Recommended Stop Loss - 0.9361
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURGBP Channel Down but short-term rebound expected.The EURGBP pair is trading within a 1-year Channel Down pattern since the November 16 2023 High. Three days ago the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern and rebounded. This was also on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which based on the previous Bearish Leg, has high probabilities of sustaining a Bullish Leg.
Assuming the symmetry with January - April 2024 holds, we turn bullish now on this pair, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.84375.
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Potential bullish bounce?EUR/GBP is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8303
1st Support: 0.8268
1st Resistance: 0.8341
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?EUR/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 164.95
1st Support: 163.45
1st Resistance: 165.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURNZD Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURNZD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.785.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.790 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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EURUSD - markets are waiting for the CPI!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction to the release of the CPI index today, we can see the supply zone and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The placement of this currency pair in the specified demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it.
According to sources, the United Kingdom and the European Union have decided to intensify their efforts to draft and implement a joint defense treaty in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of close relations with the United States and insisted on deepening EU-U.S. cooperation, particularly in trade. He stated, “If the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on the EU, we have both the authority and the capacity to respond accordingly.”
Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, recently spoke with the newspaper Kleine Zeitung about the possibility of a rate cut in the December meeting. He noted that currently, there is no reason to avoid a rate cut, but this does not mean it will definitely happen.
Holzmann stressed that the final decision will be made after receiving the latest forecasts and economic data in December, adding, “There is currently nothing opposing a rate cut, but that does not mean it will automatically take place.”
In other developments, Japanese investors in September recorded their highest purchase of German government bonds since 2018, while continuing to avoid French bonds due to concerns over France’s financial situation. According to Japan’s balance of payments data, released on Monday, Japanese investors acquired a net 859.6 billion yen ($5.6 billion) of German bonds in September. Japanese funds also sold French government bonds for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest selling streak since 2022.
Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first key U.S. economic data post-election, has garnered market attention. While inflation data has been of lesser significance in recent months, this report may impact trading sentiment, especially if the downward inflation trend faces setbacks. The monthly core inflation rate is expected to come in at around 0.30 percent, while the overall monthly inflation is expected at approximately 0.21 percent. Additionally, core annual inflation is likely to hold steady at 3.3 percent, while the overall annual rate could rise to about 2.6 percent.
In the absence of surprises, today’s report is not expected to trigger significant market reactions; however, any upward surprises may have a larger impact. Currently, there is about a 63 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
Barclays Bank now forecasts only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, a shift from its previous forecast of three such cuts in 2025. This adjustment follows recent developments, including Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has updated its own projections for the Fed’s monetary policies next year, expecting the U.S. central bank to initiate quarterly rate cuts starting in March 2025.
Potential bearish drop off pullback resistance?EUR/GBP has reacted off the resistance level which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support that acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.8336
1st Support: 0.8301
1st Resistance: 0.8354
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?EUR/GBP has reacted off the resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8336
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8369
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8320
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD: Showing no signs of stopping before 1.04000.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.891, MACD = -0.007, ADX = 29.222), which is a sign of a potential slowdown on the October sell-off but not of stopping. We believe that as the price is approaching the bottom LL of the Channel Down, it will slow down in an attempt to form sideways a bottom as during the weeks of September 25th - October 16th 2023. The ideal entry will be with the 1W RSI as close to being oversold (30.000) as possible and symmetric 1W MACD shows it can happen by December 9th. That means that we can continue shorting the pair, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.04000), which is where the bottom was priced on October 2nd 2023.
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EURAUD: Failed to recover the 1D MA50. Sell signal.EURAUD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.768, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 33.915) as it reversed just before reclaiming the 1D MA50. The 1D MACD is on a Bearish Cross since last Thursday and since August 5th every such formation completed a -3.63% decline. This time such a decline would reach the S2 level exactly, which is what we're aiming for (TP = 1.60115).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURGBP possible 250pips Currently near lows last time seen almost 3 years ago. Opening here a small position just in case we dont see a pull back from this possible break out.
Will be adding more as price falls below .8350
Expecting the next economic data from GBP to be the main driver of this price action..
This analysis its invalidated if price makes a new low
EURCHF Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURCHF next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.9364
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.9388
My Stop Loss - 0.9347
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Euro can little grow more and then continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time ago started to trades inside the wedge, where it at once broke the 1.0790 level, which coincided with the seller zone but soon backed up to this area. Then the price continued to move up and later rose to 1.0840 points, but then EUR made a correction to support line of wedge. Then price turned around and started to grow to a resistance line of a wedge pattern and even made a gap, after which it exited from the wedge and turned around. Then prices made a downward impulse inside the triangle to the resistance area, breaking the 1.0790 level. After this movement, the EUR turned around and in a short time rose to the seller zone, after which turned around and dropped back. Also recently, the price broke the 1.0680 level and now it trades very close to the support line of the triangle pattern. In my opinion, the price can make move up to the resistance area and then continue to decline, even exiting from the triangle pattern. Therefore I set my TP at 1.0600 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀