EurGbp will be bearish bias. Should be pullback to shortHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
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Eur-gbp
EURGBP: GBP's news was good!Hello Traders,
This is the long-term bearish channel of the pair:
Reaction to the gap and middle of long-term channel is clear in the above chart.
Let's search for TP!
This is a Strong Resistance
I think it might be a good target
Let's take a look to the news!
Most important one which is GDP was a surprise for Pound, bearish for the pair.
Monthly industrial production was supposed to rise from -0.9% to 0.3% but it stopped at 0.2%. It has been considered to be bad for GBP! I think it's almost nothing compared to GDP news. All other important factors were positive too, Only trade balance which I think again less important than others.
Technically and Fundamentally I'm short!!
I'll enter after Order flow or LTF structure confirmation.
1st TP: (For short term-traders with lower SL)
Daily Pivot
2nd TP: Support line and middle of short-term channel
3rd TP: Bottom of both channel
Potential price rise?EUR/GBP has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.84350
1st Support: 0.84130
1st Resistance: 0.84752
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally
The British pound surged above $1.276 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in three weeks, as voters across the United Kingdon headed to the polls for parliamentary elections.
The Labour Party, currently leading in the polls, appears poised to unseat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party. Some projections suggest Labour could secure a majority, marking their first general election victory since 2005.
But, perhaps the more interesting trade is in the euro in reaction to the second round of voting in France scheduled for over the weekend on 7 July.
In a strategic move to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front (NFP) has announced it will withdraw its candidates in 200 districts where they finished third, lending support to stronger candidates opposing the National Rally (RN).
Forecasts now indicate the RN and its allies are likely to win between 190 and 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. Prior to these withdrawals, polls had estimated the RN could secure between 250 and 300 seats.
In the forex market, a bullish push could see the euro retesting the previous high around 1.0850, with a potential challenge to the 1.0900 psychological level switching the broader outlook to bullish. Conversely, a drop below the 200 SMA may find immediate support at 1.0775, with further support at the 50 and 100 SMA levels around 1.0733.
EURGBP intraday rallies continue to attract sellers.EURGBP - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
Intraday signals are bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.8485.
We look to Sell at 0.8485 (stop at 0.8500)
Our profit targets will be 0.8445 and 0.8425
Resistance: 0.8485 / 0.8500 / 0.8515
Support: 0.8455 / 0.8440 / 0.8425
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Brace for NFP, ECB Forum, and two major elections This week is set to be a pivotal one for global markets, with significant economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the United States, the spotlight will be on nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, with the economy expected to have added 180,000 jobs in June. This would mark a slowdown from the 272,000 jobs added in May and signal a cooling of the labor market.
Across the Atlantic, political developments in France and the United Kingdom are likely to dominate market movements.
France's Parliamentary Elections:
France held the first round of its parliamentary elections on Sunday. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to first place, securing 33.5% of votes according to recent polls. The second round of voting is scheduled for July 7.
The dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month has already caused volatility in French stocks. However, some see this as a buying opportunity. Eden Bradfield of BlackBull Research commented, "Our preference list includes Kering, LVMH, Richemont, Brunello, and Hermes at the right price."
Adding to the busy week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will host its annual forum in Sintra from Monday to Wednesday. The event will gather central bank governors, including Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Roberto Campos Neto of the Brazilian Central Bank, Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England, and Christine Lagarde of the ECB.
On the economic front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for the Eurozone and Germany are due this week. These reports are anticipated to show a slight easing in inflation, which will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike.
UK General Elections:
In the United Kingdom, a major political shift is anticipated on July 4. Polls suggest a landslide victory for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and a major defeat for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
EURGBP / Critical Volume Signals and Key Price LevelsTechnical Analysis: EUR/GBP (4H Chart)
Current Price Action:
The EUR/GBP pair is trading around 0.84722, near the pivot line at 0.84915.
Key Observations:
1. Primary Support and Resistance Levels:
Primary Support Line (Monthly): 0.83977
Primary Support Line (Yearly): 0.83393
Resistance Line: 0.85728
2. Supply Zone:
- A sensitive decision area characterized by high volatility is identified around 0.85204 to 0.85394.
3. Support and Resistance Areas:
Secondary Support Area: Around 0.84265
Resistance Area: Around 0.84915 to 0.85204
Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
Breakout Above Pivot Line: If the price can break and sustain above the pivot line at 0.84915, it could aim for the resistance area around 0.85204. A further breakout from this level could see the price move towards the supply zone and potentially higher towards the resistance line at 0.85728.
Support from Rising Trend Line : The ascending trend line providing support suggests continued bullish momentum if it holds, potentially pushing the price higher.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure at Pivot Line: If the price fails to break above the pivot line at 0.84915, it could retreat towards the secondary support area around 0.84265.
Downside Targets: Sustained bearish pressure could push the price further down to the primary support lines at 0.83977 and 0.83393.
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- The anticipated trading range for today is between the support level at 0.84265 and the resistance level at 0.85204.
Pivot Line: 0.84915
Resistance Levels: 0.85204, 0.85394, 0.85728
Support Levels: 0.84655, 0.84576, 0.84265
Summary:
- The EUR/GBP pair is currently at a critical juncture near the pivot line. A breakout above this level could signal a bullish continuation towards higher resistance levels, while failure to hold this level could see a decline towards key support areas. The next week's direction will be heavily influenced by the price action around the pivot line and the supply zone.
Direction for the Next Week:
Bullish Direction: Likely if the price breaks and sustains above 0.84915 and moves past 0.85204, targeting 0.85728.
Bearish Direction: Possible if the price fails to break the pivot line and drops below the secondary support area at 0.84265, targeting 0.83977 and potentially lower to 0.83393.
------ There is also...
Analysis Based on Volume Order Book (Expo) for EUR/GBP (4H Chart)
The Volume Order Book (Expo) on the EUR/GBP 4H chart provides insights into the liquidity and potential price movement based on the distribution of orders. Here's a detailed analysis:
Key Observations:
2.High Volume at 0.84915:
There is a significant volume of 11.458M at the price level of 0.84915, which acts as a strong pivot point. This indicates that a lot of trading activity and interest is concentrated at this level.
2.Volume Clusters:
Above Current Price:
There are notable volumes at 0.85204 (5.866M), 0.85394 (4.434M), and 0.85728 (5.857M). These levels act as resistance where selling pressure might be strong.
Below Current Price:
There are significant volumes at 0.84655 (3.426M), 0.84576 (2.918M), and 0.84265 (2.647M). These levels act as support where buying interest is likely to be strong.
Directional Bias:
Bullish Indicators:
Pivot Line Strength: The large volume at 0.84915 suggests that if the price can break and sustain above this level, it may indicate strong bullish momentum.
Support Levels: The accumulation of buy orders below the current price indicates strong support around 0.84655 and 0.84265, which can provide a solid base for upward movement.
Bearish Indicators:
Resistance Levels: The substantial sell orders above the current price at 0.85204 and 0.85728 suggest that the price may face significant resistance, potentially limiting the upside.
EURGBP Overbought RSI, buy opportunity.The EURGBP pair hit on June 14 the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line0 of the 7-month (dashed) Channel Down and is on the rebound. At the same time, the 1D RSI got oversold (below 30.00) and every time it did so in the past 12 months, it started a strong bullish reversal.
More specifically the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Down reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level to form its Lower High. As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting 0.85500 (0.618 Fib).
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EUR/GBP Poised for Seasonal Upswing as July BeginsAs July kicks off, the EUR/GBP pair is entering a period of seasonal strength, supported by historical trends and favorable technical indicators. Historically, EUR/GBP has shown a tendency to perform well during this time of year, and this seasonality is further bolstered by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The report indicates that the Euro is currently the preferred asset among institutional investors, often referred to as "smart money."
Recently, the EUR/GBP pair rebounded from the 0.8400 support level, a critical area that has provided a strong base for price action. This rebound, coupled with the seasonal patterns and smart money positioning, presents a compelling case for a bullish setup.
Given these factors, we are now looking for opportunities to enter long positions on the EUR/GBP pair, anticipating continued strength in the Euro as the month progresses.
EURGBP is approaching a significant resistanceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.84900 zone, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.84900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURGBP to find sellers at market?EURGBP - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bearish.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.8455.
We look to Sell at 0.8455 (stop at 0.8473)
Our profit targets will be 0.8410 and 0.8400
Resistance: 0.8455 / 0.8470 / 0.8485
Support: 0.8425 / 0.8410 / 0.8395
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
R2F Weekly Analysis - 1st June 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market:
We are at a new month, the month of June. I am still monitoring how the DXY acts this month to validate the monthly SIBI I've been talking about to turn into an iFVG. However, on the lower timeframes it looks very much like lower prices are in the making, which would be bullish for XXXUSD pairs and vice versa for USDXXX pairs.
- R2F
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week
With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022.
The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials.
Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations.
Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs.
Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/GBP has just bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8501
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 0.8456
Why we like it:
There is a support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 0.8530
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/GBP is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8499
1st Support: 0.8474
1st Resistance: 0.8531
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could EUR/GBP bounce from here?Price is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8547
1st Support: 0.8530
1st Resistance: 0.8581
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURGBP pullbacks towards the trend before breaking 0.86Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a buying opportunity around 0.85500 zone, EURGBP is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.85500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURGBP Excellent short-term sell signalThe EURGBP pair easily hit our 0.5 Fibonacci Target following the symmetrical Double Bottom rebound, as mentioned on our last call (March 20, see chart below):
We now switch to the lower 4H time-frame as a strong sell signal emerged. The 4H RSI got rejected inside its 1-month Sell Zone and the pair that is trading within a Bullish Megaphone already reached (and is so far holding) its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The last similar Bearish Leg reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding. As a result we have now a rough sell Target at 0.85635 (Fibonacci 0.618) but we will close earlier if the RSI hits the Buy Zone before the price hits the Target.
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Could price bounce off 618% Fibonacci support?Price has just bounced off the a support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8582
Stop loss: 0.8559
Take profit: 0.8618
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURGBP is approaching the uptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a buying opportunity around 0.85900 zone, EURGBP is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.85900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURGBP to find support at market?EURGBP - 24h expiry
The medium term bias remains bullish.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
A lower correction is expected.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Bespoke support is located at 0.8565.
We look to Buy at 0.8565 (stop at 0.8545)
Our profit targets will be 0.8615 and 0.8625
Resistance: 0.8595 / 0.8610 / 0.8625
Support: 0.8565 / 0.8550 / 0.8535
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.