COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday.
For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive.
In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks.
JPY, CHF & USD:
Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be.
In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar.
What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds.
With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields.
GBP:
The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data.
Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained.
Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends.
Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members.
It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions.
If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK.
For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
Eur-gbp
EURGBP on a channel break 🦐EURGBP after the break of the ascending channel is testing the support.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURGBP Sell Trade Opportunity (MY View)It's A Numbers Game..... Perfect Sell Opportunity Here With EURGBP ... Looking For price To test The Lows Of Day....... Trade Safe:: SL$TP Indicated On Chart
EURGBP short Shorting opportunity....Price broke trendline...retested but failed..anticipating fall as shown...
EURGBP test the 0.382 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the recent lows at the 0.85800 level started a move to the upside.
The price tested the 0.86700 area and retraced at the 0.382 Fibonacci.
According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Detail USD Outlook in Price Action Analysis (GBP, EUR, CAD)
Hi everyone:
Today I want to dig deeper into a few USD pairs that may shape up for a very good bullish move in USD in the near future.
I narrow down the 3 best potential pairs, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCAD
Lets take a look at each of them, and see my analysis, forecast, and entry potential on all of them.
As always, understand that price needs to develop into the right price action before entering any live trades. If it does not, then no entry and move on to other opportunities.
Always have your own plan, management, entry, SL, TP that fits your trading perspective and expectations.
Feel free to ask me questions, or comment/feedback.
Thank you
EUR/GBP, possible buy scenarioAs it can be inferred from the chart, the price has a huge potential to grow and reach the target identified on the graph. We are looking for BUY positions from here and aiming for the plotted key zone.
Share your thoughts and opinions in the comments, family!
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD.
Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind.
For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD.
For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently).
If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD.
JPY, CHF & USD:
US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course.
For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher.
Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations.
GBP:
The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK.
The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans.
For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions.
If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK.
For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
EG might be a bearish and trending down to 0.8550 zone>>>
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
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Short Idea On EURGBPMy opinions,
1. The bear already break, we are now looking at support turn resistant zone.
2. GBP I still think it's more valuable compare to EUR.
EURGBP lower low move 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the test of the 0.382 Fibonacci level is moving lower.
The price is approaching a minor support and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EUR/GBP, a possible push to the upside💰As it can be inferred from the chart, we are waiting for the price to break the structure and continue moving to the upside.
What do you think about the chart, family? Share your views and opinions in the comment section🙌🏻
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt.
However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term.
For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information.
The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this.
For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency.
JPY, CHF & USD:
US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well.
As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed.
GBP:
The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view.
The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans.
For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions.
If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK.
For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
EUR/GBP - ShortPotential for more downside??
Could see price reject at resistance and at the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Price has been in a downtrend (very strong on the 1D timeframe) so we could see this movement continue.
Remember;
The Trend is Your Friend.
Review the current situation in the Eurusd chartHi everyone
I hope you are well
If you have followed our analysis, our recommended deals were for Euro Purchases. We told you last time that the price of 1.2175 is a resistance level and it is important and during the last two days you saw how it resisted the price growth. We expect the price to reach the support zone, where we will activate buying transactions if the conditions are right and we receive a signal.
📣 Attention 📣
⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea.
⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis.
⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
A solid week for the CAD in terms of price action means the biggest increase in positioning among the majors should not be a surprise. The BOC’s hawkish tilt has put the CAD in pole position for the bullish currencies among the majors, and as long as policy normalization continues, and the data stays positive and Oil prices remain buoyed that should stay intact.
The jobs data was a minor set back for the CAD on Friday, but a miss was largely expected due to the impact of the virus and should not be enough to change the med-term outlook for the BOC or the CAD.
In terms of incoming events, the only noticeable one for AUD is the incoming Annual Budget Release, but apart from that main focus for the high betas should be overall risk appetite.
JPY, CHF & USD:
What a move in the Dollar after Friday’s NFP! Not surprising though as the med-term bias remains titled to the downside for the greenback as long as the Reflation and Global Synchronized Recovery driver stays intact.
The more interesting development was the downside in the Dollar despite a solid push higher in US10Y. It’s important though to remember that even though yield differentials are important drivers for currencies they are not the only drivers.
For the past couple of months, the correlation to real yields (nominal yields – inflation expectations) is another important driver alongside that of Eurodollar futures. On Friday, Eurodollar futures shot up and Real Yields shot down after the NFP jobs report, all in all a strong bearish cocktail for the Dollar despite US10Y moving up.
This week the attention turns to CPI on Wednesday as well as Retail Sales on Friday. In terms of the CPI event, it will be important to keep the Real Yield dynamics for the Dollar in mind, as a strong CPI print might not necessarily translate into Dollar strength if inflation expectations outpace US10Y and pushes real yields lower.
GBP:
The move we’ve seen lower in CFTC positioning for the GBP is mostly as a result of the downside price action we saw at the end of last week which was most probably due to some de-risking going into this past week’s BOE and elections.
The fundamental bias remains unchanged and tilted to the upside for Sterling. Even though the BOE did move along with tapering, it was framed as a technical adjustment, but the bank did provide a more upbeat outlook for the economy and the recovery.
With the proximity risks out of the way we would anticipate the week ahead to see a continuation of the upward trajectory barring of course any negative surprises.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour.
For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU.
However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now and waiting for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 4 May 2021.
EURGBP on a bull move 🦐The price after the recent lows is consolidating below a string resistance.
According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long oirder
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURGBP looking up 🦐The price is testing the daily resistance after a nice bullrun. IF the price will have a breakout upward, According to Plancton's strategy (check our Academy), we can set a nice order
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURGBP top-down analysisHi Guys, let’s make a full top-down analysis of this pair, we will take the trade if all the condition of the strategies are satisfied. Press like button to support this video and let me know in the comment section if you have any questions.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher.
For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank.
Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors.
JPY, CHF & USD:
What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling.
Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example.
After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens).
In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market.
GBP:
GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections.
Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour.
Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week.
For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU.
However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
EURGBP top-down analysisHi Guys, let’s make a full top-down analysis of this pair, we will take the trade if all the condition of the strategies are satisfied. Press like button to support this video and let me know in the comment section if you have any questions.
