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Eur-gbp

EURGBP on a bearish outlook 🦐EURGBP after the test of the monthly resistance close the week above the support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
9
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The AUD suffered the biggest outflow amongst the major with the CFTC data updated until Tuesday the 8th of June, which should arguably not be surprising given the prior outperformance in the currency before that happened. This week the focus for the AUD turns to the incoming Employment report where labour data has been touted by many as the most important consideration for the RBA regarding potential policy changes or updates. For the NZD we have Q1 GDP data coming up which should provide us with an interesting outcome on our AUDNZD short trade. The recent underperformance of the NZD has been quite surprising, and our view that the fundamental outlook points to further strength has been shared by numerous investment banks. We’ll see whether GDP data is what the NZD needs to move back in line with its underlying bias. For the CAD, positioning is something that we are focused on, especially with the CAD trading “elevated” against numerous currencies, we need to be mindful of some possible mean reversion. JPY, CHF & USD: Our fundamental outlook for the US Dollar has shifted from Weak Bearish to Neutral. The assessment of risk to the currency is more balanced in our view as we head closer and closer towards potential tapering by the Fed. Apart from that, real yields are expected to remain a key driver in the short-term and something we will use for potential short-term direction bias alongside incoming economic data points. This week, the main event for the US Dollar will of course be the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the elephant(s) in the room will be the massive upside surprises in US CPI readings compared to the FOMC’s March projections, as well as what the bank will have to say about tapering discussions (those ones that Fed Powell said they haven’t been having but the April minutes showed they have) For the JPY, the ongoing divergence between US10Y and the safe-haven currency will be a focus point of ours this week. As the Fed and quad witching is in the mix this week we need to keep safe-haven flows in mind this week as a potential supporting factor if equities see some jitters. GBP: Even though the bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, as the third largest net-long position among the majors we do need to be mindful of the current short-term risks for the currency. We received confirmation that the UK’s planned reopening on the 21st of June will be delayed by four weeks. This was already touted last week so the impact might be lesser this week, and also due to the fact that it won’t derail the economic recovery which means the outlook is still favourable. However, coupled with the ongoing Northern Ireland Protocol issues with the EU we need to be mindful of some potential risk premium build up in Sterling which could translate into some short-term downside. We would consider any sizeable corrections as opportunities to engage from better levels, especially against the EUR and the JPY. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 8 June 2021.
by thunderpips
EURGBP possible scenarios 🦐EURGBP is trading between strong daily support and a descending trendline. The price after a few attempts never took a direction yet. We will wait for a clear break below the resistance or above the trendline to check the price direction. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
2
EURGBP on a bearish outlook 🦐EURGBP after the test of the monthly resistance close the week above the support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
1
EURGBP approaching resistance|7th June 2021EURGBP is approaching descending trendline resistance in line with horizontal pullback resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement , and 100% Fibonacci extension . Prices might push down towards horizontal swing low support in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement . If prices push up further, prices might face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement , and 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Stochastics is also facing resistance from 93.21 resistance level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
EURGBP on a bearish outlook 🦐EURGBP after the break of the ascending channel is testing the support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
12
EURGBP on a channel break 🦐EURGBP after the break of the ascending channel is testing the support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday. For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive. In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks. JPY, CHF & USD: Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be. In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar. What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds. With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data. Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained. Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends. Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members. It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
14
EURGBP on a channel break 🦐EURGBP after the break of the ascending channel is testing the support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
10
EURGBP test the 0.382 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the recent lows at the 0.85800 level started a move to the upside. The price tested the 0.86700 area and retraced at the 0.382 Fibonacci. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
Detail USD Outlook in Price Action Analysis (GBP, EUR, CAD) Hi everyone: Today I want to dig deeper into a few USD pairs that may shape up for a very good bullish move in USD in the near future. I narrow down the 3 best potential pairs, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD. EURUSD GBPUSD USDCAD Lets take a look at each of them, and see my analysis, forecast, and entry potential on all of them. As always, understand that price needs to develop into the right price action before entering any live trades. If it does not, then no entry and move on to other opportunities. Always have your own plan, management, entry, SL, TP that fits your trading perspective and expectations. Feel free to ask me questions, or comment/feedback. Thank you
by jojofang0901
38
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD. Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD. For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently). If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course. For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher. Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
EG might be a bearish and trending down to 0.8550 zone>>> If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys