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Eur-gbp

EURGBP lower low move 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the test of the 0.382 Fibonacci level is moving lower. The price is approaching a minor support and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1
Review the current situation in the Eurusd chartHi everyone I hope you are well If you have followed our analysis, our recommended deals were for Euro Purchases. We told you last time that the price of 1.2175 is a resistance level and it is important and during the last two days you saw how it resisted the price growth. We expect the price to reach the support zone, where we will activate buying transactions if the conditions are right and we receive a signal. 📣 Attention 📣 ⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea. ⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis. ⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis.
Long
by fx_iranian_traders
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: A solid week for the CAD in terms of price action means the biggest increase in positioning among the majors should not be a surprise. The BOC’s hawkish tilt has put the CAD in pole position for the bullish currencies among the majors, and as long as policy normalization continues, and the data stays positive and Oil prices remain buoyed that should stay intact. The jobs data was a minor set back for the CAD on Friday, but a miss was largely expected due to the impact of the virus and should not be enough to change the med-term outlook for the BOC or the CAD. In terms of incoming events, the only noticeable one for AUD is the incoming Annual Budget Release, but apart from that main focus for the high betas should be overall risk appetite. JPY, CHF & USD: What a move in the Dollar after Friday’s NFP! Not surprising though as the med-term bias remains titled to the downside for the greenback as long as the Reflation and Global Synchronized Recovery driver stays intact. The more interesting development was the downside in the Dollar despite a solid push higher in US10Y. It’s important though to remember that even though yield differentials are important drivers for currencies they are not the only drivers. For the past couple of months, the correlation to real yields (nominal yields – inflation expectations) is another important driver alongside that of Eurodollar futures. On Friday, Eurodollar futures shot up and Real Yields shot down after the NFP jobs report, all in all a strong bearish cocktail for the Dollar despite US10Y moving up. This week the attention turns to CPI on Wednesday as well as Retail Sales on Friday. In terms of the CPI event, it will be important to keep the Real Yield dynamics for the Dollar in mind, as a strong CPI print might not necessarily translate into Dollar strength if inflation expectations outpace US10Y and pushes real yields lower. GBP: The move we’ve seen lower in CFTC positioning for the GBP is mostly as a result of the downside price action we saw at the end of last week which was most probably due to some de-risking going into this past week’s BOE and elections. The fundamental bias remains unchanged and tilted to the upside for Sterling. Even though the BOE did move along with tapering, it was framed as a technical adjustment, but the bank did provide a more upbeat outlook for the economy and the recovery. With the proximity risks out of the way we would anticipate the week ahead to see a continuation of the upward trajectory barring of course any negative surprises. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now and waiting for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 4 May 2021.
by thunderpips
EURGBP on a bull move 🦐The price after the recent lows is consolidating below a string resistance. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long oirder ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
14
EURGBP looking up 🦐The price is testing the daily resistance after a nice bullrun. IF the price will have a breakout upward, According to Plancton's strategy (check our Academy), we can set a nice order ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
6
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher. For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank. Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors. JPY, CHF & USD: What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling. Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example. After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens). In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market. GBP: GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections. Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
by thunderpips
EURGBP looking for a direction 🦐EURGBP after the recent impulse reached a string resistance zone. The price starts to moce inside an ascending channel. We can expect some retracement to the previous support and from there we will check the market for a new move to the upside. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
6
EURGBP TrendMainly, we are looking for trades based on the trend. That's why we love to see a decent trending market. There is a good opportunity on the EURGBP. Now we have a confirmed uptrend on the hourly chart - higher highs and higher lows. The support zone is at 0,8646-67. Once we see another upside move, we expect price reaching 0,8721 and 0,8755. As an extra confirmation and entry signal you could wait for a specific candle that gives you a single and a close above previous high.
Long
by ForexTrendline
EUR/GBP Bullish Trade Plan - Multi Timeframe AnalysisGood morning traders, today we will analyze a potential bullish opportunity in EUR GBP, since it is at a critical level, and there is the potential for our situation to resolve in our favor. First, we must clarify why we are looking for a bullish opportunity. 🔸If we analyze the macro context, we see that in the daily chart the price is trying to penetrate a resistance zone, but has not yet managed to consolidate above it. 🔸In case the price breaks out clearly, there is a possibility that it will generate a movement towards the next resistance zone. 🔸What we must do now is to reduce the timeframe to look for a setup with a good risk-benefit ratio. 🔸We need a short-term breakout of the Resistance zone for our bullish scenario to activate. 🔸Then, we will wait for a correction or retest towards the broken zone, since we need a corrective structure that allows us to position the stop loss safely. 🔸 We always look for a potential Risk to Reward ratio above 1:2. 🔸In case it happens, we expect the breakout of this structure and an upward momentum towards the descending trendline.
Long
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
EURGBP retesting the resistance 🦐EURGBP after the attempt to break the monthly resistance melted below. The market went below the support area at the 0.86450 and currently retesting the 0.382 Fibonacci level. According to Plancton's strategy if the conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice short order. -–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Virus Situation. Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to over half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported. The biggest risk to this view is the current challenges regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, which the UK is very reliant upon to reach their vaccination targets. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE. From the start of the year the BOE had a change of heart regarding negative interest rates when on the 12th of Jan Governor Bailey pushed back against negative rates, and that view was confirmed in the BOE’s meeting on the 4th of February where they firmly pushed back against negative rates. Even though the BOE is nowhere close to hawkish, their less dovish demeanour regarding the overall economic outlook (and unphased approach to rising yields) have seen markets shifting their monetary policy expectations from expecting the next move to be a 10 bsp cut to now expecting the next move to be a hike of 10 bsp. 3. The country’s economic developments. Economic data has been better-than-expected despite renewed lockdown measures that was announced at the end of last year. The hopes of a possible faster economic reopening and subsequent recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP.
by thunderpips
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 13th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, even after the recent push higher in the likes of the NZD and AUD. For this week the majority of the attention will turn towards the Canadian Dollar where we will have the BOC's policy and rate decision. Just two weeks ago the expectations that the BOC will look to start tapering their QE program was set in stone, but recent rising virus cases and lockdown restrictions has seen some participants push back these expectations. Apart from that, the past few sessions the overall global risk outlook has been the main external driver for the AUD & NZD and without any major surprises we would expect the two antipodeans to be largely driven by the risk outlook. JPY & CHF & USD: With the US10Y pressured in the past week the JPY was quite resilient among major currencies despite overall positive risk tones. As yields find some equilibrium it will be interesting to see whether the JPY takes its cue more from risk sentiment in the weeks ahead as the strong inverse correlation between US10Y & JPY has been moving lower recently. The USD once again saw downside despite further solid econ data and largely followed US10Y's path lower. However, it was quite noticeable that the Dollar didn't fall further on Thursday despite US10Y pushing lower with quite some pace. Friday did see US10Y finding some reprieve alongside the USD. Even though the Dollar's med-term bias remains titled to the downside, we should keep in mind that yields have not been the only driver for the Dollar over the past few weeks as the overall reflation narrative remains a big focus as well. As the USD's slide coincides with lots of exuberance in equities and VIX treading water on key support, we do need to keep a close eye on overall risk sentiment for some potential mean reversion at some stage, and if equities do have some short-term deleveraging it could see some USD safe haven flows. GBP: The two favourites among the FX majors from a fundamental outlook point of view has been the CAD and the GBP, and it's both of them that has been the weakest among the majors over the past two weeks. Whenever we see price action like this we need to ask ourselves whether anything has changed that could jeopardize the fundamental outlook, and despite some initial concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the main drivers for expecting further upside in the Pound is still intact. However, we also don't want to catch falling knives. In the coming sessions, either waiting for price action to confirm the bullish trend is back in focus or waiting for a positive catalyst to driver the Pound higher seems like the best course of action in the short-term. EUR: The upside in the EUR this past two weeks has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus. Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany". However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up. But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 April 2021.
by thunderpips