EURGBP - SHORT POSITION (8HR)CONFLUENCES:
- Rejection of 50 EMA
- Rejection from 71%-78% Fib area
- Bearish trend confirmed by EMA crossover
Eur-gbp
EUR/GBP, two sides of a story🧙🏻♂️The price printed some strong bullish candles and is now trading at the previously broken key zone. We will wait for some confirmations to see if the price is gonna grow till the descending trendline or reject the key zone and drop down🙌🏻
EURGBP Shorts Short EURO / Long GBP as team GB starts to benefit from a positive post Brexit narrative. Eur sentiment soured with mishandling of Northern Ireland border and proposed vaccine restrictions. A Sign of things to come? Meanwhile, relative to Europe and America, GB leads the way in vaccination programs and efficacy is starting to show in the data. Trans Pacific Trade group application and the prospect of 100's or 1000's wealthy Hong Kong citizens is well received.
From a TA perspective we look set to test to test the lower end of the post referendum range @ 0.83.
Week Ahead: COT Currency ReportOverall:
With the CFTC data updated until 30 March the EUR showed the biggest decrease of (-19.5K) and the AUD showing the biggest increase of (+6K).
AUD, NZD & CAD:
Positioning still favours further upside for the three high beta FX majors. The strong push higher in global equities last week is another positive catalyst to keep in mind in the week ahead.
Even though we maintain an upside bias for the AUD, NZD and CAD, but given the BOC's recent action to discontinue some of their market functioning programs and the complete reversal of NZ10Y after it's recent push lower we would prefer the NZD and CAD above the AUD as we also
have the RBA this week which could influence the AUD.
The med-term bias for all three remains titled higher.
JPY & CHF & USD:
The big deviation in positioning we mentioned in last week's report saw some mean reversion in the JPY albeit it only minor moves. With risk appetite taking a more positive turn at the latter part of last week, and with the solid economic data points from the US, the risk on added additional pressure on the JPY, but positioning still has some possible room left to unwind which is a risk to our medterm downside bias.
The Dollar's price action at the latter part of last week was very important. Despite the best ISM Mfg PMI since 1984 and despite a solid NFP print which came in much higher than expectations, the Dollar failed to sustain any meaningful upside, and instead continued it's overdue mean reversion to the downside.
This might be the first signal that the positioning-related squeeze might be fizzling out and could potentially be the market turning it's attention back to the reflation narrative as we head into the highly anticipated Q2 of 2021.
GBP:
The bias for Sterling remains firmly titled to the upside, we maintain an upside bias in GBPUSD, especially with the Dollar's soft price
action following last week's solid data points.
The calendar will be very light for Sterling, so the overall focus will arguably fall predominantly on price action in the EUR and the USD.
EUR:
The reasons to expect downside for the EUR has been on the rise recently. Whether we consider the vaccine roll out, or recent virus numbers, or lockdown restrictions, or relative growth dynamics, or policy normalization expectations, all the above point to further downside for the EUR versus the USD and GBP, as well as the high betas.
Despite shedding a lot of net long positioning in the past two months, the EUR remains the largest net long position among the majors, which means there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside if the above concerns continue to pressure the single currency.
However, the one caveat to the EUR is it's sensitivity to the Dollar. With the Dollar pushing lower we've seen the EUR breathe a sigh of relief, and as long as the Dollar remains pressured we could see the EUR gaining some upside momentum.
This report reflects the COT data updated until 30 Mar 2021.
UPDATE! EURGBP looking for new lows 🦐After our previous analysis EURGBP broke below the support area, retest the structure and move to new lows as expected.
The market could now provide us another entry opportunity on a new retest of the structure.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will satisfy the conditions we will set a nice short order.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURGBP looking for new lows 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart is moving over a weekly support.
The market is now testing the structure around the 0.85200 zone and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EUR/GBP Breaking the Daily ConsolidationGood day traders! Today we want to show you our daily chart analysis of the EUR/GBP pair, since it is behaving in an interesting way and we consider it important to take it into account.
🔸As we can see, for more than a year the price has been in a clear downtrend.
🔸All support zones along the way have been penetrated.
🔸About a month ago, the 0.8700 zone was broken, and then the price for almost 30 days was in a consolidation period.
🔸At this moment, it is generating a break in the bearish direction, which, if confirmed, could start the next impulse.
🔸The target of the movement is in the next support zone, at 0.83000. There is about 200 pips of travel towards that level.
EUR/GBPEURGBP will bounce up soon watch that volatility squeeze on daily or 4H chart , 600 pip target at least in around 3 weeks or less ,,
EUR/GBP IDEAHello traders,
We have very good opportunity to look carefully to this currency pair.
We have:
+ Monthly candle going down
+ Weekly candle going down
+ Daily closing support zone
+ Minimal stop loss for idea
+ Bearish crowd
What we can do? - Wait for daily candle closure.
Thanks for watching, please comment and like my video.
EUR/GBP, bears are still dominating?🧙🏻♂️The pair has pierced through the 85.5 area of support. We are expecting to price to visit the broken zone once again for a re-test before dropping even more🙌🏻
EURGBP on a long downtrend 🦐EURGBP on the weekly chart has been moving in a dowtrend for a few weeks in a row.
The price is now trading close to the support area at 0.85300 and never provide a sign of a retracement.
We can expect in the next week a retracement move to retest the resistance area at 0.87 and from there will check the market for the next move.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
COT CURRENCY REPORTThis report reflects the COTdata updated until 23 Mar 2021.
Overall:
With the CFTC data updated until 23 March the JPY showed the biggest decrease of (-14K) and the EUR showing the biggest increase of (+3K).
AUD, NZD & CAD:
After sizable moves lower with the recent risk off flushes, all three high betas remain bullish in the med-term outlook, and with relatively small net long positions, there is still more room to run. In the week ahead it's going to be very quiet on the data front, but we will have a few events to watch for WTI which could have impact on the CAD such as the upcoming JMMC meeting and more
developments with the Suez Canal.
Also keep in mind this week we will have month-end and quarter-end, we also have a shortened week due to Good Friday, which means liquidity is likely going to be unfavourable. Thus, even though med-term biases remain intact do watch out for erratic price moves without any real catalyst.
JPY & CHF & USD:
Another big increase in net-short positions for the JPY. The speed of the move in the JPY has been very excessive in the short-term, with the 1-year z-score printing a 4.5 with this past week's data.
That is a very big deviation from the norm, which means we do want to be a bit careful with the JPY from a positioning point of view. Even though the JPY has been at the mercy of moves in US10Y, a sudden move higher from some profit taking is a risk to keep in mind.
The Dollar was the star performer last week, pushing higher across the board even while US10Y was pushing lower for the majority of the week. The short-term drivers that has recently affected the Dollar is still very much in play such as yield differentials, better relative growth & inflation dynamics as well as the faster policy normalization expectations for the FED.
However, again from positioning, the move in the USD does look stretched in the short-term so keep that in mind going into the new week.
GBP:
The bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, especially versus the EUR, where EURGBP managed to close below the important support at 0.8550.
This week is going to be very light on the data front, so focus will remain on the overall driver for EURGBP such as vaccine roll out (UK well ahead), growth expectations (UK well ahead), monetary policy (UK far less dovish), fiscal policy (EU still waiting for ratification), new virus cases (rising much faster in EU).
EUR:
The reasons to expect downside for the EUR has been on the rise recently. Whether we consider the vaccine roll out, or recent virus numbers, or lockdown restrictions, or relative growth dynamics, or policy normalization expectations, all the above point to further downside for the EUR versus the USD and GBP, as well as the high betas.
Despite shedding a lot of net long positioning in the past two months, the EUR remains the largest net long position among the majors, which means there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside if the above concerns continue to pressure the single currency.
For the week ahead, the focus will be on the incoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI as well as the March NFP report (which is expected to show a sizable jump on the headline). If we see these two data points print significantly higher than expected, it will mean more downside for the EURUSD, which should also be supportive for further EURGBP downside as well.
EURGBP Rejection - Possible Short SetupPrice tested 0.8639 mark - high
of 16 March, tried breaking this
level but failed and fell sharply.
Looking for a pullback to get short
for 0.8533 lows.
EURGBP will break the weekly support? 🦐EURGBP after the first test of the weekly support retrace until the 0.5 Fibonacci level below a descending trendline.
The price from there got rejected and now moving for a new test of the support.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURGBP looking up 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after our last analysis almost reached the 0.86500 level.
The market is now testing a minor resistance and if the price will break above we will set a nice long order according to Plancton' strategy.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EUR/GBP, let's fly up🧙🏻♂️The price has managed to break and re-test the major descending trendline indicated on the chart. From this area on, we are expecting the price to continue its upside movement🙌🏻
EURGBP - SHORT POSITION (8HR)CONFLUENCES:
- Bearish downward trend
- Rejection of key fib level
- 1st TP in line with monthly support
- Rejection of 50 EMA
EURGBP on a fakking wedge 🦐EURGBP after the consolidation over the 0.85500 level is currently testing a minor resistance area.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we can set a nice long order.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together
EURGBP: Be Prepared For Breakout
EURGBP is trading in a sharp bearish trend.
For now, 0.854 is a current structure low.
Though the price keeps setting lower highs, it didn't manage to set a new low.
The trigger that we are waiting for is a daily violation of the underlined yellow support.
Wait for a daily breakout (daily candle close below).
It will lead to a bearish continuation to new lows.
Next goal will be - 0.8485
EURGBP facing bearish pressure | 19 Mar 2021EURGBP is facing bearish pressure from 1st resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Prices might push towards 1st support which coincides with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension . If prices break through 1st resistance, prices might push up towards 2nd resistance which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension . Ichimoku cloud is also above prices, showing a further bearish pressure for prices.
EURGBP facing bearish pressure | 19 Mar 2021EURGBP is facing bearish pressure from 1st resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices might push towards 1st support which coincides with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. If prices break through 1st resistance, prices might push up towards 2nd resistance which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Ichimoku cloud is also above prices, showing a further bearish pressure for prices.
