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Eur-gbp

EURGBP Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session, our focus is on the EURGBP currency pair, specifically looking for a favorable buying opportunity around the 0.85750 zone. The recent price action of EURGBP has been showing a downtrend, but it has successfully broken out of that trend. At present, the pair is undergoing a correction phase, and it is nearing a critical area of support and resistance at 0.85750. From a fundamental standpoint, we are closely monitoring potential short positions on the GBP in anticipation of the upcoming Bank of England rate decision and any accompanying forward guidance. The GBP is showing signs of being overbought, which could potentially lead to a reversal in its current strength. This development could further support our interest in considering a long position on EURGBP. To summarize, we are closely observing EURGBP for a buying opportunity around the 0.85750 zone due to the recent breakout from its downtrend. Additionally, we are keeping an eye on potential GBP short positions given the impending BoE rate decision and the perceived overbought conditions of the GBP. Trade safe. Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
9
EUR/GBP long ideaHello Traders EUR/GBP has finalized its long correction phase. So we expect some sharp moves in EUR/GBP in the next few days. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Long
by FortunaInvestments
2
EURGBP, H1 | Potential reversal We're seeing price rise towards a major overlap resistance at 0.8552 which also coincides with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a shorter term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. It's worth noting that there's a fair bit of bearish momentum too wish the descending resistant line and the bearish ichimoku cloud pushing prices down. A drop from here could see pries drop to 0.8524. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
Short
by FXCM
1
EURGBP: Sell following the 1D MA50 rejection.EURGBP got rejected last week on the 1D MA50 turning the 1D timeframe bearish technically (RSI = 42.823, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 20.983). Given the fact that the 2023 pattern is a Bearish Megaphone, we expect a continuation of this downtrend to the LL trendline. We are selling with an initial target on the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 0.84450). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISCurrency Markets on UK Recession Watch - There has been high volatility in the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate during the past week. GBP/EUR posted a fresh 9-month best conversion at 1.1735 early in the week before a slide to below 1.1600 after the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision. Weaker than-expected Euro-Zone data helped strengthen GBP/EUR to 1.1700 on Friday. Both the ECB and Bank of England will want to maintain a hawkish policy stance. Evidence on economic strength is likely to be a key element in the short term. Aggressive BoE Action to Fight Inflation The latest UK inflation data recorded an unchanged headline rate of 8.7% while the core rate increased to 7.1% from 6.8%. The Bank of England (BoE) increased interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.0% this week as it looks to bring inflation under control. The UK 2-year yield has increased to a fresh 15-year high of 5.15%. Following the BoE move, investment banks have raised their rate forecasts. JP Morgan, for example, now expects that rates will be increased to 5.75%. The bank added; “This new policy rate level in our forecast recognizes that there is a dynamic between wage and prices that needs to be stopped and assumes the BoE will need to hike further in order to trigger a significant weakening in the labour market.” High yields will provide an element of support to the Pound, especially with short-term yields comfortably above longer-term rates. According to ING; “From a currency perspective, a sharply inverted yield curve can work as a positive factor for a reserve currency like the pound (as opposed to growth-sensitive currencies). We suspect that a rebound to 0.88 in EUR/GBP(1.1360 for GBP/EUR) will need to be delayed on the back of that.” Commerzbank is still not confident that the BoE has got a grip on inflation. According to the bank; “So the impression remains of a central bank that was too slow in starting to hike its key rate and moved to smaller rate steps too early, even signalling a possible pause. The BoE seems to be chasing inflation developments rather than fighting them with an active monetary policy, which is damaging for Sterling. It added; “As we do not believe that the BoE will suddenly take a different approach, we remain sceptical for Sterling.” UK Economic Fears Liable to Increase The latest UK PMI business confidence data recorded a decline in the manufacturing index to a 6-month low of 46.2 for June from 47.1 previously and below consensus forecasts of 46.8. The services-sector index also retreated to a 3-month low of 53.7 from 55.2 and below expectations of 54.8. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented; “while the June survey reveals the economy to be cooling as a result of higher interest rates, the stubbornly elevated price growth in the service sector suggests the Bank of England will consider its fight against inflation as still a work in progress. However, such rate hikes will clearly add further to the likelihood of a recession later in the year, which is looking increasingly inevitable as collateral damage in the fight against inflation.” According to TD Securities; “Rates are reaching a point where they will have a negative impact on growth, which is feeding back into a weaker currency.” The bank expects that the economy will suffer; “We now expect three more 25 bps hikes in Bank Rate, taking it to 5.75% in November. As policy tightening catches up to the real economy, a recession is likely to emerge this winter, with cuts coming in Bank Rate from February 2024.” It adds; “The 50 bps hike plays well into our EUR/GBP topside view, where we could see a push towards the top-end of the recent range back near 0.89 in the months ahead.” (1.1235 for GBP/EUR). Euro-Zone Unease Intensifies The latest Euro-Zone PMI business confidence data recorded a decline in the manufacturing index to a 37-month low of 43.6 for June from 44.8 the previous month and compared with an unchanged reading for the month. The services-sector index also retreated to a 5-month low of 52.4 for the month from 55.1 previously and well below expectations of 54.5. The data will reinforce near-term unease surrounding the Euro-Zone outlook. At this stage, the ECB has maintained a hawkish policy stance and is expecting to increase interest rates further at the July policy meeting. As Euro-Zone inflation declines, it is likely that the real interest rates will increase and potentially move into positive territory. If UK inflation is stubborn, real UK rates will remain low and potentially negative. In this context, Danske Bank notes; “On balance, we continue to see relative rates as a positive for EUR/GBP from here, which is one of several reasons behind our fundamental predisposition of buying EUR/GBP dips. We highlight that whether the aggressive BoE market pricing will subside or inflation continues to surprise, we see it as headwinds for GBP.” It has a 6-month GBP/EUR forecast of 1.1360. Berenberg still has an end-2023 GBP/EUR forecast of 1.1765.
Long
by thunderpips
17
EURGBP Trading the Range - 0.852 convictionHey Traders! 👋 For Day 39/100 of our challenge, we will look at EURGBP short idea and how we can trade the range Technicals: - Prior to range, structure was bearish - Strongly rejected 0.863 key level - Now retesting middle limit pivot area - 79% retracement rejected as well - Expecting the fill of range bottom at 0.852 Fundamentals: 🇪🇺 Despite ECB remaining hawkish, recent data have been negative in both inflation and labor. This gives ECB less room to be hawkish/raise rates further compared to BoE 🇬🇧 The main downside risk for BoE now is the aggressive pricing in of peak rates by the rate markets. However, BoE has done a great job in meeting expectations lately: surprise hike of 50bp and the lack of push back on aggressive rate markets. The UK has also been seeing positive data recently which gives them more room to raise rates to battle inflation. Now, a hard landing due to aggressive rate hikes is also another risk. But it seems that the market isn't paying much attention to that as much as inflation currently. So that leaves us with the EURGBP short expectations this week. Any changes in catalysts is possible with inflation data from around the world is released. So stay safe, and see you tomorrow 👍
Short
by rob_WRLD_
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISCurrency Markets on UK Recession Watch - There has been high volatility in the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate during the past week. GBP/EUR posted a fresh 9-month best conversion at 1.1735 early in the week before a slide to below 1.1600 after the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision. Weaker than-expected Euro-Zone data helped strengthen GBP/EUR to 1.1700 on Friday. Both the ECB and Bank of England will want to maintain a hawkish policy stance. Evidence on economic strength is likely to be a key element in the short term. Aggressive BoE Action to Fight Inflation The latest UK inflation data recorded an unchanged headline rate of 8.7% while the core rate increased to 7.1% from 6.8%. The Bank of England (BoE) increased interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.0% this week as it looks to bring inflation under control. The UK 2-year yield has increased to a fresh 15-year high of 5.15%. Following the BoE move, investment banks have raised their rate forecasts. JP Morgan, for example, now expects that rates will be increased to 5.75%. The bank added; “This new policy rate level in our forecast recognizes that there is a dynamic between wage and prices that needs to be stopped and assumes the BoE will need to hike further in order to trigger a significant weakening in the labour market.” High yields will provide an element of support to the Pound, especially with short-term yields comfortably above longer-term rates. According to ING; “From a currency perspective, a sharply inverted yield curve can work as a positive factor for a reserve currency like the pound (as opposed to growth-sensitive currencies). We suspect that a rebound to 0.88 in EUR/GBP(1.1360 for GBP/EUR) will need to be delayed on the back of that.” Commerzbank is still not confident that the BoE has got a grip on inflation. According to the bank; “So the impression remains of a central bank that was too slow in starting to hike its key rate and moved to smaller rate steps too early, even signalling a possible pause. The BoE seems to be chasing inflation developments rather than fighting them with an active monetary policy, which is damaging for Sterling. It added; “As we do not believe that the BoE will suddenly take a different approach, we remain sceptical for Sterling.” UK Economic Fears Liable to Increase The latest UK PMI business confidence data recorded a decline in the manufacturing index to a 6-month low of 46.2 for June from 47.1 previously and below consensus forecasts of 46.8. The services-sector index also retreated to a 3-month low of 53.7 from 55.2 and below expectations of 54.8. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented; “while the June survey reveals the economy to be cooling as a result of higher interest rates, the stubbornly elevated price growth in the service sector suggests the Bank of England will consider its fight against inflation as still a work in progress. However, such rate hikes will clearly add further to the likelihood of a recession later in the year, which is looking increasingly inevitable as collateral damage in the fight against inflation.” According to TD Securities; “Rates are reaching a point where they will have a negative impact on growth, which is feeding back into a weaker currency.” The bank expects that the economy will suffer; “We now expect three more 25 bps hikes in Bank Rate, taking it to 5.75% in November. As policy tightening catches up to the real economy, a recession is likely to emerge this winter, with cuts coming in Bank Rate from February 2024.” It adds; “The 50 bps hike plays well into our EUR/GBP topside view, where we could see a push towards the top-end of the recent range back near 0.89 in the months ahead.” (1.1235 for GBP/EUR). Euro-Zone Unease Intensifies The latest Euro-Zone PMI business confidence data recorded a decline in the manufacturing index to a 37-month low of 43.6 for June from 44.8 the previous month and compared with an unchanged reading for the month. The services-sector index also retreated to a 5-month low of 52.4 for the month from 55.1 previously and well below expectations of 54.5. The data will reinforce near-term unease surrounding the Euro-Zone outlook. At this stage, the ECB has maintained a hawkish policy stance and is expecting to increase interest rates further at the July policy meeting. As Euro-Zone inflation declines, it is likely that the real interest rates will increase and potentially move into positive territory. If UK inflation is stubborn, real UK rates will remain low and potentially negative. In this context, Danske Bank notes; “On balance, we continue to see relative rates as a positive for EUR/GBP from here, which is one of several reasons behind our fundamental predisposition of buying EUR/GBP dips. We highlight that whether the aggressive BoE market pricing will subside or inflation continues to surprise, we see it as headwinds for GBP.” It has a 6-month GBP/EUR forecast of 1.1360. Berenberg still has an end-2023 GBP/EUR forecast of 1.1765.
Long
by thunderpips
7