EURUSD 8 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and the possible POI to maybe start the Pullback is the 4H Supply above the Swing EQ.
But be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Swing/Internal Pullback Back Phase
2.
Price continuing bullish with Bullish Swing BOS formation.
We had reached the 4H supply and we'd fully mitigated it which could provide bearish pressure to initiate the 15m Swing Pullback.
But be mindful that 15m Swing and 4H Internal Structures are solidly Bullish and we there is a HP we will continue up to mitigate the Daily/Weekly Supply.
Still on my Bullish Bias. Shorts will be in play once we have confirmed 15m Bearish BOS. Risky shorts will be with 15m Bearish iBOS.
3.
Swing Discount Zone and the last 15m/4H demand zone for potential reaction/longs when reached.
Eur-usd
EURUSD 7 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - EU Rate / US JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and the possible POI to maybe start the Pullback is the 4H Supply above the Swing EQ.
But be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
2.
After a Swing BOS we expect a Pullback.
INT structure is bullish and most probably will continue bullish after we broke the range.
Once internal structure turned bearish we will start the Swing Pullback Phase.
Expectation that we will continue bullish till the 4H Supply positioned above the 4H Swing EQ and maybe from there we will start the pullback.
Shorts are not considered until we reach a HP HTF POI.
3.
Swing Discount Zone and the last demand zone for potential reaction/longs when reached and depending on the situation.
EURUSD Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.09000 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area around 1.09000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Sell EUR/USD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a bearish channel pattern. This technical indicator often suggests a trend continuation, potentially leading to further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0850, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following levels:
1.0815: This represents the height of the channel, measured from the top trendline to the breakout point, projected downwards from the breakout point.
1.0796: This is achieved by adding the height of the channel to the breakout point. These targets act as potential support zones that could see selling pressure.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.0865. This helps limit potential losses if the price reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EURUSD 6 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis -US ADP / Powell day 1This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Note: Nothing changed since yesterday except 15m Sub INT turned Bullish aligning with 15m INT and Swing Bullish
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis - Out
15m Chart Analysis - In
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bullish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which turned bullish.
Sub INT structure aligned with INT and Swing to continue bullish. Still i expect price to target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market which means that the market players are waiting for a catalyst today from US ADP and Powell Testifies today and tomorrow.
EURUSD: 1D MA50 rejection, potential pullback to 1.07500EURUSD has turned marginally bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 55.444, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 39.548) but today made the second rejection on the 1D MA20 since February 22nd. Based on the 1D RSI uptrend that has started, the price action seems very much like the October 24th 2023 rejection, which pulled back near the 0.786 Fibonacci level. According to that, we expect a short-term correction at least for the pair (TP = 1.07500).
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EURUSD 5 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMI/PPI - US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 5 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Note: Nothing changed since yesterday except 15m Sub INT turned Bullish aligning with 15m INT and Swing Bullish
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bullish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which is currently bearish.
The Sub Internal Structure failed to continue bearish several times and there is a High Probability that we are currently targeting the Sub Structure High (Green Line) to continue the Bullish INT Structure and target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it support, which trapped all bears who sold below 1.08, if bulls can keep the bullish gap open, this might fuel the rally faster up to 1.092 as it’s first target.
Bears closed the gap early but failed at 1.08 which turned support it seems, at least for now. I adjusted my w5 series slightly price and time wise but not much. W2 was deeper than expected but inside acceptable range for a pullback.
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
bear case: Bears closed the bullish gap but failed to print below 1.08 and the best they can hope for is to stay inside the given range above. Bears had 4 good pushes down from 2023-12 to 2024-02 and i don’t think they want to die on that hill below 1.09. More will probably show up around that price and definitely at 1.1.
outlook last week: “up - but invalid below 1.08m then we move more sideways first (bull gap close - see chart)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.0860 and now we are at 1.0860. Funny eh. Good outlook i guess. Market acted as expected and i keep leaning bullish.
short term: up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)
medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 until bigger breakout
HelenP. I Euro can rise a little more and then fall to $1.0765Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. A few days ago price traded between the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, but when EUR reached the trend line, it rebounded down and broke the 1.0935 level. Also then, the price continued to decline and even later happened gap, after which the price in a short time rose to the trend line and then made impulse down to the support zone, which coincided with the support zone. After this, the Euro some time traded in this zone, even rising higher than the 1.0765 level, but soon declined back and even lower. Then price turned around and in a short time rose to the trend line, breaking the support level one more time. As well soon, the EUR broke the trend line, made a retest, and continued to move up, therefore now I expect that the Euro will rise to 1.0885 points, after which it can turn around and start to decline to a support level. That's why I set my target at the 1.0765 support level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD Can this 4H Golden Cross turn it bullish long-term?The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the start of the year but since the February 22 rejection on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), it has failed to start a new decline to a Lower Low and instead has stayed near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.
What is adding more to the bullish case is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross last Thursday, the first such pattern in 4 months (since October 31 2023). That was a bullish signal then, starting a very strong rally towards the December 28 2023 High.
Despite this bullish technical sentiment, since the Channel Down is intact and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we are bearish, targeting 1.07500 initially (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the November 01 2023 pull-back target). If a 1D candle closes below 1.07300, we will resell and target Support 2 at 1.06550.
If on the other hand, we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, then the bullish bias of the 4H Golden Cross will prevail and we will take the loss on the sell and instead buy, targeting the -0.236 Fibonacci extension and medium-term Resistance at 1.09300 (which was the November 06 2023 bullish break-out target within the Megaphone).
Notice also how similar the 4H MACD sequence of the October - November 2023 Megaphone is to the price action now since February.
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EUR/USD Analysis: Key Zones and Entry Points
Traders,
Let's analyze EUR/USD across various time frames:
Weekly Chart: We identify three distinct zones, with the nearest around 1.09.
Daily Chart: The closest upper chart rests at 1.08838, while the nearest lower one is at 1.07994.
1-Hour Chart: Our initial entry aligns with the daily pivot and a crucial Murray level.
Additionally, we anticipate:
A potential break of the bearish trend line, signaling further bullish momentum towards the next level.
Keep a close watch on the ECB rate decision on Thursday, March 7th, as it could significantly impact market sentiment.
Our suggested entry zones for long positions are clearly marked on the chart, approximately around 1.0830 and 1.0800.
Remain vigilant and trade wisely.
Best regards,
EURUSD 4 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 4 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bearish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which is currently bearish.
The Sub Internal Structure failed to continue bearish several times and there is a High Probability that we are currently targeting the Sub Structure High (Green Line) to continue the Bullish INT Structure and target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market.
EURUSD 3/3/24EU to start our week off!
you all know what we have had in mind for this for over a month now and it really has played out perfectly, we called for shorts onto our lows and a push higher and price delivered, now we have pushed back higher into the highs we shorted from, following this move we have now got an overall short term bearish into again a long term bullish bias. This leads us to believe we will see a pullback (if we are lucky) then a nice new high form. we have a high level of liquid above our highs which we will use to run then drop or drop and then run!
keep this in mind as we come into this week.
EURUSD 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 Weekly Analysis - EU Rate / US NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
(Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.
3.
With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from which resulted in a Bearish CHoCH.
Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation / INT Pullback
2.
Within the Daily Bearish Swing we reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone and formed a bearish iBOS confirming the Swing Pullback is over and we are Pro Bearish Swing and starting the Continuation Phase targeting the Weak Swing Low.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected a Pullback.
After mitigating the Daily Demand zone we formed a Bullish CHoCH which confirmed the INT Structure Pullback Phase started.
Expectations is set now for the INT Structure Pullback Phase to continue to the INT EQ up to the Daily/Weekly Supply. But be mindful that the Swing Bearish continuation can continue at any time.
There is no HP POI for Shorts up to the Daily/Weekly Supply Zones.
IMO Price could continue up to sweep LIQ from the INT Momentum Phase that leaded to the iBOS before we continue down.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
Economic Events for the Week
EUR USD support zone EUR/USD holds positive ground near 1.0811 during the early European session on Friday. The major pair recovers despite the renewed US Dollar demand. Market players will take more cues from the Eurozone inflation data due later in the day.
Wage data is pretty high up on the ECB’s list of concerns with its members opting to view Q1 wage data before indicating when exactly it may be appropriate to cut rates. Then later today EUR/USD is likely to see an uptick in intra-day volatility when US PCE data comes out 30 minutes after the inflation print.
Confirm Chart
EURUSD 1 Mar 2024 W9 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMI/CPI - US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Mar 2024 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
NOTE: Nothing changed again from yesterday, 4H no changes and 15m just within the INT to INT Structure.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be done after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bearish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
After BOS we expect a pullback. Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and from there started the 15m INT Structure Pullback.
With the ranging behavior of price we created INT to INT Structure which turned bearish and currently challenging to maybe targeting the INT Structure Pullback low (ii Low @ 1.0803).
Price is currently bearish within the Bullish INT/Swing structure. Expectations was set to target the INT to INT Structure and we did that yesterday.
With the current price behavior, i'm expecting price to challenge the INT Structure Low which will confirm 15m Swing High and possible continuation bearish to continue the 4H Bearish INT Structure.
EURUSD is approaching a significant Resistance areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08500 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08500 support and resistance area.
One other factor that i will be keeping an eye too is PCE that should give an extra boost and give confirmation on the dollars long!
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD - Trade Idea (ICT)Intraday trade idea on the EURUSD.
I see a reaction off a signature 2-day R2F Gap to give me a bullish bias to take price possibly to the highs.
For narrative, I see a signature 30m R2F Gap as a possible entry to take me up to the relative equal highs where my "low hanging fruit" objective lies. I have added confidence for the 2nd objective due to the trendline buyside liquidity on GBPUSD. However, this bias/narrative is still not ironclad as there have been a lot of N(D/W)OGs on the chart, at least for the FXCM data which I usually use.
Trade with caution.
- R2F
EURUSD 29 Feb 2024 W9 - Intraday Analysis - US PCE/JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Feb 2024 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
NOTE: Nothing changed again from yesterday, 4H no changes and 15m just created INT to INT Structure.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be done after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bearish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
After BOS we expect a pullback. Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and from there started the 15m INT Structure Pullback.
With the ranging behavior of price we created INT to INT Structure which turned bearish and currently challenging to maybe targeting the INT Structure Pullback low (ii Low @ 1.0803).
Price is currently bearish within the Bullish INT/Swing structure. Expectations that the INT to INT Structure will continue bearish and target the INT to INT Low.
But be mindful that there is a HP that price can create a bullish iiBOS to continue the Bullish INT Structure.
Sell EURUSD Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a triangle pattern.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0842, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following levels: 1.0815 and 1.0795.
These targets act as potential support zones that could see selling pressure.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 1.0870. This helps limit potential losses if the price reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EURUSD: Is parity a realistic scenario?EURUSD is technically neutral both on the 1W and 1M timeframes (RSI = 50.883 and 49.520 respectively), which indicates a lack of trend currently. This is justified technically as the late 2022 - early 2023 rally stopped on an emphatic July 2023 rejection on the 1M MA50. December 2023 gave a second rejection on the trendline, which makes for a technical Double Top. As the 1M RSI is about to cross under its MA trendline whilst on a Channel Up, it resembles December 2009 and October 2016.
This is a cyclical behavior, accurately displayed by the wave tool and indicates that as long as the price gets rejected on the 1M MA50, the downside is significant in size aiming not just for a parity again but for a new LL below 0.9500. A 1M candle close over the 1M MA50 negates this pattern and starts a new one, bullish breakout aimed at the 1M MA200 (last rejection there in March 2018).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURUSD: Looking to resume downtrendThis current bullish move looks to be running its course, resembling a bull flag.
Will be waiting for a confirmation on LTF's to get in short, hopefully before the big news on Friday, which I expect to confirm interest rates staying as they are for longer, and a hawkish fed.