EURUSD Repeatedly rejected on the Channel's top. SELL.The EURUSD pair is testing and so far has been rejected twice, the top of the Channel Down pattern.
The Fed fueled rebound on the 1day MA50 has delayed the decline but the selling pressure at the top of two Channel Down patterns, is expected to do the trick by next week.
Sell and target the Rising Support, which is the bottom of the Megaphone pattern at 1.0700.
Previous chart:
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EURUSD 21 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US GDPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 21 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
NOTE
Nothing changed much. Price still ranging without any clear momentum. It's the end of the year and with thin liquidity we will have such behaviors.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones and currently close to the Weak Swing High.
Price reacted as expected from the 4H demand zone and we are currently in the same momentum to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
In my POV the current reaction from the 4H/Daily Supply zones is not yet reflecting as a rejection as the reaction didn't achieve anything significant even no Fractal CHoCH. So as long we stay bullish and demand holding we are still solidly bullish.
Also as we are approaching the end of the year, moves will not be in momentum so i recommend to better observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
INT INT Bullish
2.
After the Swing BOS price is currently in a Pullback Phase. INT structure turned bearish to facilitate the Swing Pullback.
Price currently is ranging due to the Pullback Phase and the Bullish Continuation.
Still our expectations is that price going to target the 15m / 4H Weak Swing High. This view will be invalidated temporarily if we created a bearish iBOS (Break of INT Low) which will lead to a deep pullback.
As i'm expecting price will not be clear as we are close to year end and liquidity becoming thin. Observation and working on personal improvements is the best practice currently.
EUR/USD Predicted Market Path:
Greetings traders,
Let's explore the anticipated market path for EUR/USD. As you observe the charts, pay close attention to the dynamics.
This is the mid-term analysis
Key Level:
A break below the critical level of 1.09178 could act as a trigger, activating a sell setup approximately around 1.0950.
This level is strategically chosen to align with the bearish channel, enhancing its significance in the analysis.
Market movements can be influenced by a variety of factors, so it's crucial to remain vigilant and adapt to changing conditions. Integrate your risk management strategies for a well-rounded approach.
Trade wisely and stay informed!
EURUSD Potential UpsidesIn today's trading session, our primary focus is on EURUSD, where we are actively monitoring a potential buying opportunity around the 1.08900 zone. Presently engaged in an uptrend, EURUSD showcases a sustained upward trajectory. Simultaneously, the currency pair is navigating a correction phase, gradually converging towards the trend at the critical 1.08900 support and resistance area. This numerical level holds significance as both a historical support point and a pivotal juncture where the correction may intersect with substantial market forces.
Our strategic approach for today involves a meticulous assessment of optimal entry points within the identified 1.08900 zone. Aligning our trading decisions with the ongoing uptrend and the potential market dynamics at the critical support and resistance area is crucial. Navigating the correction phase with precision is key as we aim to capitalize on the identified buying opportunity within the broader context of EURUSD's current trend.
EURUSD 20 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU/US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones and currently close to the Weak Swing High.
Price reacted as expected from the 4H demand zone and we are currently in the same momentum to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
In my POV the current reaction from the 4H/Daily Supply zones is not yet reflecting as a rejection as the reaction didn't achieve anything significant even no Fractal CHoCH. So as long we stay bullish and demand holding we are still solidly bullish.
Also as we are approaching the end of the year, moves will not be in momentum so i recommend to better observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
INT INT Bullish
2.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirms a Swing High.
We are currently in the Swing pullback phase which means we are in a short term bearish momentum to facilitate the Swing pullback.
We have some potential supply zones for Shorts to play the Swing Pullback as long we didn't reach the Swing EQ/Discount.
We had mitigated the extreme supply withing the INT structure but the INT INT Structure is Still Solid Bullish. We need an iiBOS to confirm that the INT pullback is over and we can look for Shorts to play the 15m Swing Pullback.
But be mindful that we are in the 4H Bullish Continuation Phase and we are targeting the Weak Swing High on 4H and also on 15m, so Shorts are risky that's why we need a solid structure breaks to confirm the bearish move.
EURUSD: The picture is very clear on the 1w chart.The EURUSD pair had been going up and down the 1w MA50 lately, being higly volatile especially after the Fed meeting last week.
This can be confusing on smaller time frames like 4h or 1h (even 1d) but on the 1w the situation is pretty clear technically.
The long term trend is bearish inside a Bearish Megaphone since 2017.
After a Channel Up pushed the price upwards, the pair tops when the 1w RSI forms Lower Highs.
Then when the price crosses under the 1w MA50, a strong downtrend begins, the previous two have been -22.80% and -15.65% respectively.
This time the Fed has distorted this but the effect shouldn't last for long.
This is a strong sell signal and the target can be any price within the 1.000 - 0.9500 range.
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EURUSD Blow-off top incomingThe EURUSD pair broke again above the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is trading within two Channel Up patterns: a wider (blue) one and the shorter term dotted one. The 1H MACD indicates that we are on the same level as the November 23 MA50 break-out that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci.
As a result, as long as the dotted Channel Up holds, we are bullish short-term, targeting 1.10500 (1.382 Fibonacci extension). If the pattern breaks, we will sell and target the -1.00 Fibonacci extension at 1.07700.
Related material (previous trade):
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EURUSD 19 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR CPI This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 19 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
NOTE:
Nothing changed since yesterday, price is ranging within a tide range and maybe with CPI today we can see some movement.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Weak Swing High.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones formed when we started the Swing Pullback.
Currently price at a 4H Demand zone and the Zone low is the current Liq which price could sweep and continue up again targeting the Weak Swing High.
As we are approaching the end of the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirms a Swing High.
We are currently in the Swing pullback phase which means we are in a short term bearish momentum to facilitate the Swing pullback.
We have some potential supply zones for Shorts to play the Swing Pullback as long we didn't reach the Swing EQ/Discount.
I prefer the upper 2 zones as they are positioned in the Premium and they can potentially categorized as FLIP zones.
For Swing bullish continuation, I'm looking on the 4H/15m Demand zone to look for reaction from for Longs as long the Strong Swing Low will Hold.
EURUSD: Confirmed Sell signal.EURUSD is technicall bullish on the 4H outlook (RSI = 59.390, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 51.118) but had a Double Top rejection on the R1 level (1.10200) on Thursday and is pulling back. The 4H MACD Bearish Cross is validation of the the short signal and the immediate target is the HL trend-line (TP = 1.07850). If the price crosses under the S1 level (1.07250), we will sell again and target the S2, even S3 levels.
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Mid-Term EUR/USD Supply and Demand Analysis for the Coming WeekHello fellow traders,
Take a look at the Daily chart!
While the bullish momentum encountered resistance around a robust zone, there's an intriguing tug-of-war with the bulls demonstrating resilience.
Introduction:
This analysis delves into the mid-term outlook for EUR/USD, navigating through the intricacies of supply and demand dynamics. Stay alert for intraday updates throughout the week, and be prepared for potential market responses to the upcoming USA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release on Thursday.
Technical Analysis:
Supply and Demand Levels:
Distilled key supply and demand zones for strategic entry and exit points.
Notable supply zone: Above 1.07725
Dynamic demand zone: Spanning 1.07450 to 1.07125
Trade Setup:
Entry:
Explore a long position between 1.07725 and 1.07450, encapsulating the resilient demand zone.
Stop-Loss (SL):
Safeguard the position with a stop-loss strategically below the demand zone, residing beneath 1.07125.
Take Profit (TP):
A phased approach to taking profits, commencing between 1.09250 and 1.09875, mindful of potential resistance.
Note on Short Position:
While taking a short position is possible, it comes with heightened risk, given the prevailing demand zone. Consider shorting cautiously, aware of potential challenges reaching the aim of the zone.
Fundamental Consideration:
Exercise caution in light of the impending USA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release on Thursday. Expect possible impacts on the currency market, necessitating adjustments in positions.
Risk Management:
Calibrate position sizes based on individual risk tolerance and uphold a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Keep an eye on the economic calendar for additional fundamental events with the potential to sway the trade.
Intraday Updates:
Stay tuned for real-time intraday updates, shaping the analysis in response to dynamic market conditions.
EURUSD 18 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Weak Swing High.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones formed when we started the Swing Pullback.
Currently price at a 4H Demand zone and the Zone low is the current Liq which price could sweep and continue up again targeting the Weak Swing High.
As we are approaching the end of the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirms a Swing High.
We are currently in the Swing pullback phase which means we are in a short term bearish momentum to facilitate the Swing pullback.
We have some potential supply zones for Shorts to play the Swing Pullback as long we didn't reach the Swing EQ/Discount.
I prefer the upper 2 zones as they are positioned in the Premium and they can potentially categorized as FLIP zones.
For Swing bullish continuation, I'm looking on the 4H/15m Demand zone to look for reaction from for Longs as long the Strong Swing Low will Hold.
3.
Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.
4.
Extreme Demand zone to hold if the 15m Swing will continue Bullish.
EURUSD 18 - 22 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - 2 Weeks for 2023 End!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 18 - 22 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
2.
After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
3.
Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone.
Expectations are set now that we are targeting the Weak INT Low following the Bearish INT Structure.
Price is approaching a weekly demand area which can provide a reaction.
4.
Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
OF Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
After BOS we expect a pullback
OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback.
With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High.
Price reached a daily demand zone where we have seen a solid reaction from to target the Weak INT High.
The mitigation of this daily demand zone could be the start of the Bullish continuation of the Daily INT Structure. But be mindful that the Daily Swing is Bearish, Reached the EQ and mitigated Daily/Weekly Supply zones, So we may have finished the Swing pullback and we are in the Swing bearish continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
Let's watch LTF to guide us.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Weak Swing High.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones formed when we started the Swing Pullback.
Currently price at a 4H Demand zone and the Zone low is the current Liq which price could sweep and continue up again targeting the Weak Swing High.
As we are approaching the end of the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD Double Top formed.EURUSD got rejected on Resistance (1) forming a Double Top.
With the medium term pattern being a Bullish Megaphone, this rejection technically aims at the bottom of the pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.0650 (Support 2 and bottom of Bullish Megaphone).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) just formed a Bearish Cross, which is a confirmation of the sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURUSD 15 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful the the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Swing extreme.
Our expectations that we will reach the Weak Swing High and extend more. But be mindful that there are no options for longs here as the move already started from the Swing Discount and currently we are at the extreme premium.
As we are at the end of the week and the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
Price still in Bullish continuation after the BOS creating Bullish Internal structures.
Price mitigated Daily/4H Supply zones and could start a pullback at anytime. A Bearish iBOS will be the signal that the pullback maybe starting.
Be mindful that the current bullish momentum is going to extend to reach the 4H Swing high so still we have another leg up before a pullback.
Always waiting for solid confirmation will be the right decision.
3.
Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.
Post ECB AnalysisOvernight, the ECB remained cautious, stating that while the inflation path is lower than before, the ECB should not lower its guard.
Keeping rates on hold at 4.50%, President Lagarde indicated that the ECB did not discuss rate cut scenarios.
The EURUSD traded higher following the news, with price trading within the 1.10 resistance area.
Technicals
Price trades at 1.10 resistance & 61.8% fib retracement level and if price continues to trade higher, beyond this resistance, the next major resistance level is at 1.1270
EURUSD 14 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR Interest Rate This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful the the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price swept liquidity on the left but didn't mitigate any supply zone to initiate the pullback.
We have the Daily/4H Supply zone that can provide reaction (Not expecting a deep reaction) that can provide a pullback before we reach the Weak Swing High.
5.
Fundamentally: The Fed showed the acceptance to the market expectations on rate cuts next year which is bearish USD.
We will continue bullish till next CPI/NFP reports which can provide more confirmation for the next FOMC meeting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
Swing turned Bullish creating BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting will be a CHOCH.
Expectations that price can pullback to demand areas to continue bullish. But be mindful that with that solid bullish momentum, pullbacks will not be deep.
Also price didn't mitigate any HTF POI yet to initiate the pullback, so most probably we will continue the leg up before any decent pullback.
NOTE: Today is EUR Interest Rate Decision.
3.
Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.
EURUSD 13 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PPI/FOMC DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone.
INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation.
On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Technically, we still bearish and potentially we can continue down. But looking on the current market fundamentals, Market is in indecision sentiment due to End of Year (December), Inflation Expectations and Rate Hikes/Cut. Volatility is the nature of December due to the lack of liquidity.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Price failed to break the Strong Swing High and swept the liquidity above causing a bearish ChoCH.
We still in bearish Swing and looking on the bigger picture we are still in the same range for almost 2 weeks now.
Not much interested still in Shorting until we have a decent pullback to daily supply. From Intraday prospective, Shorts is the proper play following the 4H/15m Bearish Structure.
Will wait for more development if there will be opportunity for Longs confirmation after the 15m Swing / 4H internal turns Bullish.
3.
No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential.
4.
Risky Demand zone for longs. Solid confirmation needed before longs.
EURUSD 4hour Death Cross to send it lower.EURUSD is close to forming a Death Cross on the 4hour time frame.
The pair is trading inside a Rising Megaphone pattern which is inside a larger Channel Down. Both patterns have downside gaps to fill.
The price action is almost like all previous bearish legs in 2023 at the time of a 4hour Death Cross.
Today's small spike is a solid sell entry. Target 1.06500 (Support of the Rising Megaphone).
Previous chart:
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EURUSD Short-Term Bearish ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD 12 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone.
INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation.
On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned bearish after NFP and tapped into a Daily Demand Zone where we started the 15m Swing/INT Pullback.
Currently we are bearish in Structure on 15m and 4H. My expectations is that if we are going to continue down we need to respect the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs and we can continue bearish.
If we invalidated the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs then we are going to play longs for the Daily Structure.
3.
No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential.
4.
No significant Demand zones to hold price
EURUSD: Sell the spike, under the 1D MA50 targeting 1.06110.EURUSD is neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 45.323, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 35.660), trapped inside the 1D MA200 and 1D MA50. We have grasped the bearish momentum ever since before the November 29th High, which as you see in the past ideas at the end, gave us the best short entry possible. Now with the Fibonacci retracement levels of the eleven month Channel Down even clearer and the RSI on the neutral zone where it gets sold, we have the opportunity to add an extra short position as close to the 0.382 horizontal Fibonacci as possible and target the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci (TP = 1.06110) like May 31st and September 14th.
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