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EURUSD 11 - 15 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - FOMC Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11 - 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Expectations are set now that we are targeting the Weak INT Low following the Bearish INT Structure. Price is approaching a weekly demand area which can provide a reaction. 4. Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish OF Bearish Reached EQ 2. After BOS we expect a pullback OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback. With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High. With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase. Price reached a daily demand zone where we have seen a reaction from on Friday after NFP news. The mitigation of this daily demand zone could be the start of the Bullish continuation of the Daily INT Structure. But be mindful that the Daily Swing is Bearish, Reached the EQ and mitigated Daily/Weekly Supply zones, So we may have finished the Swing pullback and we are in the Swing bearish continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. Let's watch LTF to guide us. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone. INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation. On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 8 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bullish which is a sign that the Swing pullback my had finished and we could continue up following the Bullish Swing. We didn't mitigate any HTF POI till now for this INT structure to hold. May be the daily range on the left could be the reason of the INT to turn bullish! We will see after. Currently we are mitigating the 4H demand that caused the Bullish iBOS and as long we respect the INT Low the possibility of moving up from his is high. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned bullish after a series of bearish structures which indicates that the 4H Swing pullback may ended and we may continue the Bullish 4H Swing move. Current bullish Swing structure is a sign of bullishness but looking on the left, we still in a range which is not convincing much and could be a a pause in the market before heading down again. Away from that, as long i trust the structure and accept the outcome from it, i'll be looking for longs to continue that bullish Swing as long we don't break the Swing low and form again a bearish Structure. 3. 15m Demand within the 4H Demand which could provide opportunity for longs as long we respect the Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 7 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis -EUR GDP / US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Price had created a Bearish INT Structure and it could be targeting the 4H Demand within the Swing extreme. Currently price is in Swing pullback phase and the Bullish continuation could start at anytime from the Swing Discount. It's preferred to mitigate a Demand zone to give more confidence. Will be waiting for LTF (15m) to support the decision with bullish structure formation. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Price still in a series of bearish structures (Swing/Internal) as we didn't mitigate yet any HTF POI. We formed Swing Low yesterday after a Bullish iBOS but it didn't hold for a pullback phase. My expectations is price may continue down to a HTF POI and we can see after a change to a bullish structure to confirm that the 4H Swing pullback is over and we may continue the Bullish Swing. Currently Shorts is the play with the current Bearish Swing from Supply zones that are well positioned in Premium. For Longs, i'll wait for the mitigation of a HTF Demand zone or the 15m Swing/Internal turn bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR Retail Sales / US ADPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started. Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure. Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime. There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. Also we didn't mitigate any HTF POI to initiate a pullback yet. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts. Currently the 15m INT is in a series of bearish structures so most probably we will continue bearish till we reach a HTF POI.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD Is anyone considering this pattern?The EURUSD pair gave us a very successful sell signal two weeks ago (see chart below) and is on its way to hit our 1.07650 medium-term target: What we haven't at the time considered as a possibility, but we clearly see it now, is the emergence of a Channel Down, if of course the November 29 High holds, that can break the current Megaphone pattern downwards, in a new long-term bearish trend. As you can see this emerging blue Channel Down so far had two symmetrical bullish sequences to Lower Highs of around +5.50% to +5.99%. The first test of the Lower High rejection has been the Support 1 (1.08250) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster. So far they both broke but yesterday's candle closed above them, which leaves a neutral tone. If today's 1D candle closes below, we can expect an extension similar to August 02 which hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The longer the 1D RSI takes to reach the 30.00 oversold barrier, the more likely it is for the Channel Down to prevail over the Megaphone. If in turn, the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 too, we expect a test of Support 3 at 1.04500, almost the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone. If however the 1D MA50 holds and closes the candles above it, you can expect a rebound to at least the top of the Channel Down. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD 5 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started. Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure. Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime. There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 4 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 4 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ. It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger. Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish. Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. Price taped into the 15m and 4H Supply that caused the bearish BOS and till now holding. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 4 - 8 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 4 - 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Still it could be a sweep of liq if we started to see pushes to the down side and structure changes on TF lower than the Weekly TF. Price could be targeting the Supply zone at the INT Structure High to continue bearish as long TFs lower supports that. 4. Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish OF Bullish Reached EQ 2. After BOS we expect a pullback OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback. With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High. With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase. The bearish CHoCH on the Daily appearing to be a Liq. Sweep as we didn't close below it. So, be mindful that OF is in Strong bullish move and playing against it without confirmation will be rough. Let's watch LTF to guide us. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ. It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger. Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish. Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD: Under the 4H MA50 confirming a sell extension.EURUSD crossed yesterday under the 4H MA50 for the first time in 1 month and naturally turned the 4H technical outlook bearish (RSI = 35.006, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 40.444). Combined with the Bearish Cross on the 1D timeframe, this is a medium term sell signal. This combination has taken place before inside 2023 another two times and on both, the 4H MA200 wasn't enough to provide Support, not even the 1D MA50, which got targeted with relative ease. All declines happened inside Channel Down structures. Consequently this is a technically validated level to short the market. We aim for a contact with the 1D MA50 (TP = 1.07200). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EURUSD 1 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PMI / Powell SpeaksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis, i want to share update on my current short trade on EURUSD. The trade is currently active and secured by moving SL to BE. My current target is the 15m Swing Low/4H INT Low/Daily CHoCH. My current understanding that we are bullish in structures (15m Swing/ 4H INT / Daily INT) and i should either close my current short or look to long. But as i planned the trade from the start targeting the Liquidity on the Daily i wouldn't change my plan within the trade unless something significant occur (15m INT Structure turns Bullish). By sticking to the plan, i can evaluate my trading analysis and planning to find out where i can improve my trades. In other words what you planed is what you'll get. Currently there is a chance that price can reverse from here as we are at 15m / 4H Bullish structures extreme. Trade 15m Chart: 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. Currently we are at the INT Discount/Extreme but there is high probability demand area to contain price from my point of view. Yes, Price could continue the bullish momentum and 4H INT Bullish continuation move. But i prefer to have a well defined Demand Zone to look for trades from. There is also a pullback required from the 4H Swing which we didn't have it till now and the Daily Liquidity (INT Low on the 4H) could be the target for the daily to get Liquidity for more up side. That's why i don't prefer to trade from an area without seeing Liquidity taken. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish In Discount / Extreme 2. As internal Structure turned bearish yesterday. Price continuing bearish and reached the 15m Swing Extreme. Our expectations that after this deep pullback and if we are going to stay bullish on the 15m Swing, Price could start the bullish 15m Swing continuation. But the INT structure still bearish so no confirmation yet. there is a risky option that i can see is that the INT to INT Structure turned bullish which could be the first sign for bullish momentum coming after this deep swing pullback. It's Friday and December starting which is not a preferred trading month. So i'll be cautious with the current price structure and wait for solid options. 3. INT Structure is in bearish momentum after starting the pullback. Yesterday EU CPI news was a catalyst for that deep pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
2
EURUSD Under the MA50 (4h) after a month. Sell pressure weighs.EURUSD crossed and closed today under the MA50 (4h) for the first time since November 1st. That is a medium term sell signal as the former Support now turned into Resistance. On the long term the Bullish Megaphone pattern has a considerable downside gap to fill should key Support levels break. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the first minor bounce near the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 1.07850 (MA200 4h). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) trading inside a Channel Up and is about to turn oversold under 30.00. The last time it was oversold was on September 27th, when again it traded inside a Channel Down. The oversold condition caused an initial rebound to the MA50 (4h) which rejected the price to a new Lower Low. This is why we call for a sell of every bounce near the MA50. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Short
by TradingBrokersView
EURUSD 30 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / End of Month!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis, i want to share my trade taken yesterday based on the analysis shared with the idea of looking for Shorts to play the pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. As per the plan yesterday, i was waiting for Bearish INT Structure to signal that the pullback had started and i can look for Shorts after. We did that yesterday and formed a Bearish CHoCH on the 4H where i took my shorts in anticipation that the INT Bearish Structure will hold bearish to facilitate the pullback. I know it will not be a smooth trade because we are trading against the trend, but as per the plan i can trade these options with cautious. This is the current trade for reference on 15m Chart: 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expect a pullback. We created a CHOCH yesterday which confirmed the INT High and the pullback of the INT Structure started. Most probably we will be targeting the Demand zone in the 4H Swing Discount before looking for longs. Be mindful that the Bullish momentum is so strong and shorts wouldn't be a smooth ride, So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. INT Structure turned Bearish to signal the 15m Swing Pullback and we are in short term bearish momentum. Most probably price will be targeting the unmitigated 4H / 15m Demand zones and the Swing EQ for this pullback. Could extend to the Swing Extreme but our expectations is to look for longs from the extreme after confirmation. Be Mindful that the Bullish momentum is strong and shorts will not be a smooth ride. 3. Price had mitigated the 4H Supply and created a CHoCH on the 4H which created a new Supply that was mitigated within the current Bearish INT Structure.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU CPI/US GDP, BaileyThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price did another Bullish iBOS and reached a 4H Supply and mitigating a Daily Supply. We are expecting a pullback for the INT Structure and the first sign will be a bearish fractal CHoCH which will be the 15m Bearish iBOS. Be mindful that the Bullish momentum is so strong and shorts wouldn't be a smooth ride, So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. As expected, price created another Bullish BOS following the Bullish momentum. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. The first sign that the pullback maybe starting is a Bearish Fractal CHoCH. But as we formed INT Structures after the BOS, then we will wait for INT Structure to turn bearish first to: 1- Confirm a Swing High 2- Confirm that the pullback is starting Be Mindful that the Bullish momentum is strong and shorts will not be a smooth ride. 3. Price is currently mitigating a 4H and Daily Supply Zones. Pullback could start from here, but as we identified in the previous point that we need a confirmation with a Bearish iBOS. Longs are currently the only play from the INT Demand areas after confirmation till INT Lows fails and we get the bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 28 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price reached the extreme of the Bullish INT Structure and we may react only from there as our expectations is to reach (And maybe extend above) the Weak INT HIgh. So the current supply there may provide some bearish reaction, but our expectations on the 4H TF is to continue up. But keep in mind that the bearish scenario we have from the Weekly and Daily could be starting from this area or a bit higher. In all ways, bearish scenario will be confirmed with bearish structure formation which we don't have till now. So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure continuing bullish following the 15m Swing bullish structure and our expectations is to reach the Swing high and most probably we will take it out. 3. Price still moving to the upside but i can see there is no momentum. So my expectations that we can see a break of the INT/Swing High, mitigate the 4H/Daily Supply and then we can start a pullback. There is no confirmation yet for the shorts, So most probably will wait for at least a bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD Strongest sell opportunity since July.EURUSD has been rising continuously since the October 3rd Low, a bottom on an Ascending Triangle pattern after which we gave a buy signal. The price action is now completing a topping pattern identical to July 18th and April 26th as it trades above the Falling Resistance with the 1day MACD near a Bearish Cross and its histogram sideways. Sell and target 1.07850, which on the path of the 1day MA50 (first target during the May and August corrections). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short
by TheCryptagon
1
EURUSD 27 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price reached the extreme of the Bullish INT Structure and we may react only from there as our expectations is to reach (And maybe extend above) the Weak INT HIgh. So the current supply there may provide some bearish reaction, but our expectations on the 4H TF is to continue up. But keep in mind that the bearish scenario we have from the Weekly and Daily could be starting from this area or a bit higher. In all ways, bearish scenario will be confirmed with bearish structure formation which we don't have till now. So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure continuing bullish following the 15m Swing bullish structure and our expectations is to reach the Swing high and most probably we will take it out. 3. My expectations is if price managed to break the 15m Swing High and confirm a BOS, Most probably we will initiate a Pullback from mitigating the 4H/Daily Supply zones. Shorts are not confirmed as the momentum is bullish. but planning before is important.
by Amr-Sadek