EURUSD before CPIToday we await US inflation data.
The news will be published at 15:30 Bulgarian time!
Large swings and stop hunting are possible.
Therefore, it is advisable to open new trades after the news.
The more likely direction for us remains the rise, and a break of the previous high will confirm it.
Eur-usd
EUR/USD sideways ....Posts use Google translate
Europe's risk-sensitive currencies weakened as the global outlook worsened following poor trade data from China.
Additionally, Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several U.S. small and medium-sized banks late Monday and said it may downgrade some of the largest U.S. banks.
The agency warned that the credit strength of the banking industry could be tested by funding risk and weakened profitability.
Global risks have increased, creating demand for the Dollar as a safe haven. In Europe, although eurozone inflation risk indicators are approaching historic highs, European Central Bank policymakers have yet to reveal whether they will continue to rise. interest rates or pause interest rate hikes after the summer break, but stressed that will depend on the specific situation.
If the market expects that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates at the same time at the September interest rate meeting, the US Dollar is expected to maintain a certain advantage and maintain maintain the recent uptrend in the forex market.
Unless there is a scenario where the Fed stops raising rates while the European Central Bank continues to raise rates, the euro could receive a certain degree of stimulus and recovery.
On the daily chart (D1), OANDA:EURUSD is trying to sustain above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level with a newly formed price channel (a).
However, EUR/USD has not yet qualified for a rally, in order to qualify for a solid upside EUR/USD needs to take price action at least above the 0.382% Fibonacci level and break above the price channel (a) ).
The downside risk occurs when EUR/USD breaks below channel (a), sustains activity below the 0.50% Fibonacci level and then targets around 1.08814 0.618% Fibonacci price point.
In the interim, the direction of EUR/USD will remain unclear and mostly sideways, the pair needs a major fundamental impact to change the current structure. Notable near-term technical levels are as follows.
Support: 1.09572
Resistance: 1.10330
@BestSC
EURUSD riseYesterday we saw a pullback from the support zone on small time frames.
It’s important the movement to continue and manages to break the previous peak.
This will confirm the beginning of the upside move and will give a chance for another buys.
The important news this week is on Thursday , and there may not be any big moves before that.
EURUSD Still bearish but keep an eye on this Inverse H&S.The EURUSD pair got rejected at the top of the Channel Down, which keeps the trend bearish. This is the first bearish formation after our July 10 buy signal (see chart below) that formed the temporary High:
As long as it stays below the Channel's Lower Highs trend-line, we will be bearish, targeting 1.08450 (above Support 1). The 4H RSI however is on Higher Lows (Bullish Divergence), so if the price closes a 4H candle above the top of the Channel Down, we expect the completion of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) which is a bullish reversal pattern. It's target can be as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so in that case we will buy and target 1.11500 (just below Resistance 1 and Fib 2.0).
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EURUSD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.09500 zone, EURUSD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. currently is in a consolidation in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.09500 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD: Still seeing some strength hereEven writing this I’m thinking it could be a crazy idea with USD strength in play, but let’s see...
I think we’ll see some early weakness from the USD before a momentum shift that will see DXY reverse up (maybe by end of the week). I think the EURO is still looking strong, bouncing back from the falling following the ECB rate hike pause. ECB are hawkish around further hikes and USD CPI numbers this week may indicate a pause is coming from the FED, this idea may have played out by then. I’ll be tightening my SL at 13.30 GMT this Thursday.
So for now looking to go long provided we breakout and retest the falling trendline on the daily from the 1.275 high. We’ve been in a strong uptrend for months and I think the moves in the next few weeks could start to show reversal back down, but for now we still have higher highs and higher lows, support held nicely last week and had confluence to not break the 100 and 200 EMA on the daily, so I'm still bullish with this one for now.
I’ll hopefully be tp’ing around 1.124 to see if we get a double top or continuation up, which would bring the 1.14 centre line of the rising channel quickly into play (which could well happen if the US CPI is better / lower than expectation).
EU contrary to USD move, likely moving up
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🔥🔥🔥 NEW: EURUSD (15m) 🔥🔥🔥Choose your TP based on your favorite trading strategy or time frame:
💶 EURUSD (pip movement per strategy):
STRATEGY PIP MOVEMENT
Scalping 10-20 pips
Intraday 20-40 pips
Swing 40-80 pips
Position 80-120 pips
TIME FRAME AVERAGE ATR
1 day 20 pips
4 hours 10 pips
1 hour 5 pips
15 minutes 3 pips
5 minutes 2 pips
⚠️ TREND
— Momentum: Big Picture Uptrend
— Price Action: Uptrend
— CounterTrend: No (conservative risk trade)
EURUSD Hit the 1day MA50 after almost 1 month.EURUSD reached today the 1day MA50 for the first time since July 6th.
At the same time it hit the Rising Support that is making the Higher Lows since the May 31st bottom.
If the 1day candle closes above that Support level, then this is a buy opportunity.
If it closes below, wait until it hits and closes a 1day candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, otherwise we will inevitably test the 1day MA200 which has been intact since November 30th 2022.
This expectation is based on the late 2022 early 2023 fractal. Its best buy entry emerged when the 1day RSI made a Lower Low under 35.00 after the 1day MA50 break. Have that as an additional buy condition.
In both cases the Target is the 1.12750 High.
Previous chart:
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EURUSD Potential (4h) Death Cross. What to do?EURUSD is under both the (4h) MA50 and MA200, with the two about to form a Death Cross.
The pattern since the start of the year is a Channel Up and every Death Cross inside it delivered a lower Low.
A (4h) candle close over the MA50 though, will invalidate this and would be an instant buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price closes a (4h) candle above the MA50.
3. Buy on the 0.618 Fibonacci at 1.08800.
Targets:
1. 1.08800 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
2. 1.12800 (recent High).
3. 1.12800 (recent High).
Tips:
1. The (4h) RSI is forming a sequence (afte being oversold below 30.00) similar to both June 5th and February 20th. That is why you should be prepared for both a lower Low and a (4h) MA50 breakout.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURUSD: Big Sell Signal? Rising Wedge Alert!Greetings Traders,
Here's a compelling setup on EURUSD for your consideration.
Currently, the pair is riding an uptrend. However, the price is closely hugging the moving averages on the monthly chart, hinting that sellers might be ready to step in. An emerging rising wedge pattern on the weekly chart reinforces this perspective.
If we witness a break in this pattern, it could be a strong sell signal, potentially pushing prices back toward the previous lows on higher timeframes. The smaller timeframes are less predictable now, but if this larger picture unfolds, I'll be scanning for optimal entry points.
Stay tuned and we'll navigate this potential opportunity together.
EURUSD Buy next week. Downtrend not finished.The EURUSD pair is about to form a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is the chart that perhaps serves at understanding the current situation better than any other. It's not just the Channel Up pattern since November 2022 that is driving the trend but also the candle action on weekly terms. As you can see after each Channel Up top (Higher High), doesn't just decline by -4.37% on average but it bottoms 3 weeks after the strongest red candle on the Higher High rejection.
On the current pull-back sequence, we have had this candle 2 weeks ago so the next one should be the bottom. The next Support is the low of the July 03 1W candle which is 1.08340, so we are sticking with our 1.08450 Sell Target that is not only as close to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up as possible but also above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) that recently supported the pair for 3 weeks in a row (weeks of June 19 to July 03).
See how accurate fractal approach is on our EURUSD analysis, as we accurately caught and bought on the pair's last bottom:
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EURUSD 30/7/23Here we have Euro USD with a pretty similar setup to British pound to the US dollar the only difference with this is the POI sits slightly higher within our range still in the London session on Friday with clear imbalance and of course this is a representation of the 5 minute time frame that we have to show it to you on a 15 minute so please take a lower look down on your own chart. we're looking for this to go bullish in the first half of the week and we're looking for it to shift bearish. I personally anticipate it to create a very small range which will break lower giving us a bearish narrative but until then as always we will follow price and as it delivers!
✨ MODIFICATION: EURUSD ✨ THE BIG PICTURE (5D)TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
TP5 @ 1.2115 (closing ALL Buy Orders)
TP4 @ 1.17850 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 1.1250 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 1.1100 (shaving 25%)
TP1 @ 1.0933 (shaving 25%)
BLO1 @ 1.0820 ⏳
BLO2 @ 1.0800 ⏳
VIDEO TIMESTAMP:
00:00 ECB News
02:53 Where Do We Go From Here?
03:32 A Noisy Intermediate Time Frame (4H)
04:55 Key Support/Resistance Levels (4H)
06:01 Institutional Buying Targets
06:42 Safe Haven Currencies
05:52 Interest Rates and Safe Haven Currencies
08:47 Position Sizing with R:R @ 1:1
10:20 Best Buying Opportunities ⭐
11:04 The BIG PICTURE Analysis ⭐
13:28 BIG PICTURE Anticipatory Trend
16:31 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
During today's EUR News trading session, the EURUSD initially tried to rally or, as we call it, exhibited a false positive. Still, the market gave back gains as the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates as anticipated by 25 basis points up from 3.50% to 3.75%. So, considering this, where is Price Action going from here?
Since April 02, 2023, @ 18:00, it's been a very noisy range. This range is our current price curve analysis. It lands between the Pivot Low of 1.0788 and the Pivot High of 1.1095 and, therefore, places Support @ 1.0945 and Resistance @ 1.1086.
Based on the 4H chart, we should be clear for a downtrend breakout if price action opens and closes below our Support Level. A breakout pattern to the downside would also mean Price Action is pulling back from its BIG PICTURE uptrend pattern. Therefore, we should find Institutional Buying Targets around 1.0820 and 1.0800.
Considering the US dollar to "safe-haven" currencies like JPY or CHF, we need to be cautious about our position sizing because this will continue to be a volatile range. We're going to have to "ride the wave" professionally.
Right now, I see a lot of short-term buying and selling opportunities until Price Action reaches its 4-hour Demand Zone around 1..0800. Once we're there, the longer-term opportunity to buy will be ours.
EURUSD: Seeking the new Support. First buy attempt.EURUSD is having a strong technical selling sequence following the HH rejection (July 18th) at the top of the long term Channel Up pattern. The 1D timeframe turned neutral (RSI = 45.045, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 28.669) and as the price is near the HL trendline, it justifies a first buy attempt. Our sell target and buy entry from last week (chart at the end of the idea) was 1.09800 anyway and the target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 1.13250). It is possible for the market to seek the 1D MA50 too (1.09200) but if it closes a candle under it, then it should extend the selling to the 1D MA200 (TP = 1.08000), where it will turn into a long term buy opportunity again.
Prior idea:
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EURUSD New bullish sequence to 1.14000The EURUSD pair is rebounding just before hitting the 4H MA200 (green trend-line), with the 1D RSI printing a similar formation to the January 06 2023 rebound. Within this 8 month Channel Up pattern, the 4H MA200 has been the pivot between bullish and bearish sequences, hence the Support now that we are on a bullish leg.
As long as it holds, we are expecting the price to make a Higher High for the Channel Up at 1.14000. If the price breaks below the 4H MA200, we will sell, aiming for a Higher Low near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.08450.
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EURUSD after FEDYesterday, the FED raised rates again by 0.25%.
The ECB is due to announce today whether it will do the same by 0.25%
Today's news is at 15:15 Bulgarian time, and the press conference 30 minutes later.
EURUSD looks like it has already bottomed out and is starting the next uptrend.
We are watching for a higher bottom and confirmation of the upward movement.
EURUSD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.10800 zone, EURUSD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.10800 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.