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Eur-usd

EURUSD to breakdown?EURUSD - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a top. Price action has stalled at good resistance levels and currently trades just below here (1.0980). Short term RSI is moving lower. A move through 1.0920 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 1.0820. We look to Sell a break of 1.0919 (stop at 1.0949) Our profit targets will be 1.0844 and 1.0824 Resistance: 1.0960 / 1.0980 / 1.1000 Support: 1.0920 / 1.0900 / 1.0820 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
EURUSD: New Channel Up emerging. Buy and target the Resistances.EURUSD broke again over the 4H MA50 after closing over the 1D MA50 and keeping the 4H MA100 intact. The 1D time frame is on excellent bullish technicals (RSI = 60.189, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 30.775) while the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross. We see the potential for the emergence of a Channel Up and every Higher High matches the upper Resistance levels. We are buying every pull back inside the Channel with the end target at the top of the multi month Channel Up (TP = 1.11500). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
16
EURUSD has started the 2nd part of the bullish leg.EURUSD is trading inside a 6 month Channel Up. The recent rebound on the MA50 (1d) has confirmed the start of the 2nd part of the bullish leg that started at the bottom of the Channel Up on May 31st. This is in similar fashion as the March 24th rebound. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.11400 (top of the Channel Up on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) rebounded on its MA line, again same as the March 24th rebound. A sideways RSI trade, will continue to further confirm the similarities of the two bullish sequences and validate our target. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
14
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISMore hawkish global central bank policy actions have increased reservations over the global economy and the latest Euro-Zone data was also significantly weaker than expected. Weaker risk conditions will also tend to weaken the Euro, especially with scope for defensive dollar demand. In this context, confidence in the global economy will need to rebound for EUR/USD to secure gains much above 1.1000. US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates Forecast - US Economy in the Limelight The Federal Reserve remains determined to maintain a hawkish policy stance and expects interest rates to increase further, especially with stubborn inflation in the services sector. The US economic developments will, however, be a key element. The manufacturing data has remained weak while services-sector growth has remained strong. The US PMI manufacturing index dipped to a 6-month low of 46.3 for June from 48.4 previously and below expectation of 48.5. The services-sector index edged lower to a 2-month low of 54.1 from 54.9 and in line with expectations. Within the data, overall selling prices increased at the slowest rate since October 2020. Manufacturing prices increased at the slowest rate for three years with services-sector increases at 5-month lows. MUFG still considers that the labour market is showing important signs of weakness. It notes; “evidence is building that we are close to a turn toward weaker employment data. It is already becoming clearer in the claims data.” Initial claims have been above 260,000 for three consecutive weeks for the first time since October 2021. Excluding the covid period, it is the highest level since September 2017. The bank also points to the underlying increase in continuing claims and added; “every time continued claims increases to the degree most recently (570k), the US labour market weakens notably and recession follows.” According to the bank; “Our current EUR/USD forecasts are 1.0900 in Q2 and 1.1300 in Q3 which reflects our view of a turn in the jobs data that intensifies once again recession fears and strengthens expectations of rate cuts at the back-end of this year and in 2024, which will help fuel renewed dollar selling.” Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Dominated by Euro-Zone Reservations Confidence in the Euro-Zone outlook remains fragile and the latest PMI business confidence data was weaker than expected. The manufacturing index dipped to a 37-month low with a 5-month low for services. Socgen expressed some reservations over the data; “The only caveat is that the European PMI data aren’t a very useful gauge of what’s happening to the economy, and should be treated with some scepticism.” Nevertheless, it added; “A return to 1.06 is a significant risk.” According to Berenberg; In the longer term, we remain moderately optimistic for the euro. However, the economic weakness in the Eurozone is hampering the recovery. We have therefore adjusted our currency forecast slightly downwards and only expect a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.12 (previously 1.15) by the end of the year.” Credit Agricole also sees barriers to further Euro gains; “the EUR rate markets have already priced in some ECB tightening beyond July, suggesting that positives are already in the price of the currency. The bank sees other hurdles; “In addition, the EUR remains the biggest long in the G10 FX market while the broad EUR NEER that the Governing Council uses to gauge the currency's strength across the board has moved very close to its 2009 record high.” Danske Bank expects the Euro will struggle; “In the euro area, there have been some weakening signs in macro data as of late, which we expect to become even more pronounced in H2, as the full impact of last year’s monetary policy tightening hits the real economy.” It adds; “Overall, we think the US economy will prove more robust relative to the European counterpart in H2.” It has a 6-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.0600. According to ANZ; “A relatively more hawkish ECB, with more work to do in taming inflation, could bring about some upside in the EUR vs the USD in H2 2023. However, given that economic data surprises in the Euro-area are turning negative relative to the US, we believe that any upside in the EUR will be capped at 1.12 in Q3. ANZ added; “We also think that any rally in the EUR will likely be driven by USD-related factors.”
Long
by thunderpips
2
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange strategists across global financial institutions have been setting out their predictions for the future performance of the EUR/USD, presenting an amalgamation of analyses that span from modestly optimistic to overly bearish. Euro-Dollar rate predictions are pinned upon factors ranging from central bank decisions, inflation metrics, and global market sentiment to regional economic performance. Berenberg: Modest Optimism Despite Economic Weakness Ulrich Urbahn, CFA Head Multi Asset Strategy & Research at Berenberg, sees the Euro (EUR) gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) following the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent monetary policy decision. "After the ECB’s monetary policy decision, the euro gained a little more than a cent and is now trading at a good USD 1.09 per euro," says Urbahn. His stance is that the Euro (EUR) has the potential to recover, brushing aside the recent corrective phase. However, he is cognisant of the hurdles posed by the frail economy in the Eurozone, which he sees as a drag on the currency's recovery. Urbahn remains modestly optimistic in the long run, although this outlook is tempered by a slight downward revision in the forecast. "In the longer term, we remain moderately optimistic for the euro. However, the economic weakness in the Eurozone is hampering the recovery," he adds. Consequently, Urbahn now foresees a year-end EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.12, a step down from his previous 1.15 forecast. Scotiabank: The Bite of Rising Interest Rates Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, presents a rather more cautious view on the euro's performance, pointing to the damaging effects of rising interest rates on the European economy. He notes a dramatic fall in the Eurozone's PMI data for June, with French Services and German Manufacturing data showing significant dips, effectively signalling a stunted growth rate as the impact of interest rate hikes begins to bite. "Weaker than expected Eurozone PMI data for June hammered the EUR. French Services data fell to 48 (52.5 in May), pulling the Composite reading to 47.3 (from 51.2). German Manufacturing slumped to 41 (43.2 last) and the Composite reading dipped to 50.8 (from 53.9)," says Osborne. Nevertheless, the analyst still anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) to follow through with rate hikes in July, despite this being in the face of weaker growth. "Markets have tempered ECB expectations as a consequence but policymakers are still very likely to deliver on hikes in July at least. Weaker growth is needed to break core inflation pressures," he adds. Danske Bank: The Force of US Yield and Rate Increases Danske Bank's Analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen gives a more detailed view of the shifting global macroeconomic landscape. The analyst points to the increased US yields and the markets' anticipation of a longer period of elevated interest rates as the principal drivers of the EUR/USD exchange rates' slight downward drift. The strategist also highlights the comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the potential need for one or two more US rate increases in 2023 as a significant factor affecting the exchange rate. "EUR/USD drifted slightly lower towards 1.0950 on higher US yields and global markets generally pricing a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment," says Kundby-Nielsen. Highlighting the increasing likelihood of a rate hike from the Fed, she adds, "The 2-year US Treasury yield hit the highest level since March, and the market implied likelihood of a 25bp hike from the Fed in July increased to above 80%." The strategic analyst further underlines the market response to Powell's comments on the potential for further rate increases this year. With such economic dynamics in play, Kundby-Nielsen indicates that Danske Bank has assumed a short position on the EUR/USD spot, expecting the underlying fundamentals to swing in favour of the USD. Credit Agricole: The ECB's Unfinished Rate Hike Business Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole, sheds light on the relatively stronger performance of the euro against other major currencies. According to Marinov, this is attributable to the increasing market expectations of further rate hikes following the June ECB meeting. "The EUR was able to outperform other majors like the USD, JPY and CHF as well as recover vs the GBP in recent days," says Marinov. He postulates that the attractiveness of the euro derives from an anticipation that the ECB is not done with hiking policy rates. "This could be made quite apparent by next week’s Eurozone HICP data, which may show that core inflation has re-accelerated in June," he adds. Marinov forecasts that if such data convinces markets to expect more aggressive ECB rate hikes, the EUR could regain more ground. Yet, he notes potential obstacles, including pre-emptive market pricing of ECB tightening, the EUR's record high strength, and possible negative surprises from the preliminary Eurozone PMIs for June. MUFG: The Return to Pre-Ukraine Levels Last but not least, Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, takes a long-term perspective, seeing the recent rebound of the EUR against the USD as part of a greater bullish trend. He states that the EUR has made up for most of its May sell-off, reversing the trend to climb back up. He credits the Federal Reserve's decision to halt the rate hike cycle and the ECB's increasing focus on the core inflation outlook as crucial to this rebound. "The EUR has rebounded against the USD so far this month and in the process has reversed most of sell-off in May," says Hardman. He forecasts a return to pre-Ukraine crisis levels, expecting the pair to move back to the region of 1.1500. "The run of higher highs (in January and April) followed by higher lows (in March and May) so far this year highlights that the bullish trend remains in place," he adds. Nonetheless, Hardman does anticipate that further USD corrections are likely unless supported by stronger US economic data. This, combined with an expected uptick in Eurozone's core inflation over the summer, could prompt the ECB to consider additional rate hikes in September.
Long
by thunderpips
2
EURUSD 4hour MA50 supporting but sell if it breaks.EURUSD had a strong rejection today just after it reached the 1.10075 Resistance A, formed by the May 10th High. The price is supported by both the Rising Support B but more importantly the 4hour MA50. As long as this holds, buy and target the Rising Resistance at 1.10500. If it crosses under the 4hour MA50, sell and target Support Zone A, where you can buy back at 1.08350 for a long targeting 1.1000 (Resistance A). Keep in mind that we are past a Golden Cross, a technically bullish formation. However the 4hour RSI formed a Double Top (bearish formation) but has a clear Support Zone that is holding ever since the Rising Support B started. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Long
by TheCryptagon
9
EURUSD: Consolidation turning into a Buy.EURUSD is trading near the HL 1 trendline with the 4H timeframe about to turn neutral again (RSI = 57.365, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 18.019) after being overbought last week on June 15th-16th. Along with the 4H RSI testing the bottom of its Channel Up, this is our first buy entry on the medium term with the second being on a potential contact with the 4H MA50 at 1.08750. On both entries our target is the R1 (TP = 1.10075). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
6