Eur-usd
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session our attention is focused on EUR/USD, where we are closely monitoring a potential selling opportunity around the 1.10 zone. Previously, EUR/USD had been trading in an uptrend, but it has recently experienced a breakout from that trend. Presently, the currency pair appears to be undergoing a correction phase and displaying indications of a potential retracement from the resistance area at 1.10. Therefore, we are observing this development as it may present an opportunity for a selling position in the market.
Trade safe, Joe.
Uptrend in EURUSDLast week we saw a definite rise in EURUSD and confirmation of the uptrend in H1.
Important resistance was reached at 1.0940 and we are still holding to these levels.
At current levels, there is no basis for new entries because there is no good ratio.
We expect the uptrend to continue and will look for new entry opportunities.
The next important resistance is at 1.1080!
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts
Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar
A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen.
It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.”
The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed.
BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates.
According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.”
BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world
It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling.
Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground.
Euro Can Secure Capital Inflows
The bank maintains a broadly constructive stance towards the Euro.
It expects that the ECB rate hikes and quantitative tightening will encourage foreign inflows and domestic repatriation.
Although BNP expects that energy prices will strengthen, it does not expect a return to 2021 levels.
Overall, the bank expects gradual EUR/USD gains over the medium term.
EURUSD can start a short term pullback now.EURUSD has risen too high too fast, having posted 4 straight green (1d) candles.
The RSI (1d) hit the 63.00 level which was the first pullback rejection on the previous bullish leg of the 1 year Channel Up pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy at 1.08125 (Fibonacci 0.5 and MA100 1d).
Targets:
1. 1.11400 (top of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) had its MA as the Support up until the 2nd rejection on the previous bullish wave. If it breaks this time don't buy as it may indicate a deeper correction.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
🔥 +SL MODIFIED: EURUSD 🔥 SWING TRADE 🔥TP4 @ 1.1085 (closing ALL Buy Orders)
TP3 @ 1.0966 (shaving)
TP2 @ 1.0860 (shaving)
TP1 @ 1.0780 (shaving)
BSO @ 1.0725 📈
BLO @ 1.0690 📈
-SL @ 1.0638 🚫
Jun 13
TOOK PROFIT @ TP1
14 hours ago
WE TOOK PROFIT @ TP1 for a combined net total of +145 pips
WE TOOK PROFIT @ TP2 for a combined net total of +305 pips
2 minutes ago
Modified Stop-Loss (+SL) @ 1.0900 (30m)
EURUSD: Overbought on 4H, may experience a short term pullback.EURUSD turned overbought on the 4H time frame (RSI = 74.381, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 54.586) following the parabolic rise yesterday. As we mentioned on our analysis last month, the pair has been rising strongly basically since the May 31st bottom. As the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 for the first time since March 21st and form a Golden Cross, we expect a pull back first near the 0.618 Fibonacci.
We will buy at 1.08450, assuming the 4H MA50 gets hit, and target R1 (TP = 1.10075).
Prior idea:
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EURUSD BUY OPPORTUNITYHello dear traders. Here my idea to EURUSD. we will expect short term bullish continuation.
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This idea does not provide the financial advice.
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, I hope you're all doing well. I wanted to provide you with an update on today's trading session and share an exciting opportunity we're monitoring in the EURUSD pair. As you know, EURUSD has been trading in an uptrend for some time, but we're now witnessing a significant development.
The price has successfully broken out of the uptrend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. Our analysis suggests that there may be a selling opportunity around the 1.09 zone. It's important to note that we will be closely observing the price action as it retraces towards lower levels.
In particular, we're keeping a close eye on the support and resistance zone of 1.09200. If the price approaches this level, it could present a favorable entry point for a sell trade. However, as always, it's crucial to prioritize risk management and trade with caution.
Remember, the market can be unpredictable, and it's essential to adapt our strategies accordingly. We encourage you to stay informed, make informed decisions, and, most importantly, trade safely.
Wishing you all successful trades!
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Breakout and pullback levels to target 1.0900EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up pattern since the May 14th bottom.
Yesterday it formed the first 4hour MA50-100 Bull Cross since March 14th. That was during the previous long term bottom formation.
The price is close to testing the 4hour MA200 for the first time in over 1 month.
If the candle closes over it, buy the breakout and target 1.0900 near Resistance B.
If rejected then buy the pullback near the bottom of the Channel Up. Target 1.0900 again. In that case you will see the 4hour RSI crossing under the Rising Support and declining under 40.00 before it turns into a buy opportunity again.
Previous chart:
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EURUSD before FEDCPI data came out yesterday and EURUSD hit the 1.0800 resistance and is holding at those levels for now.
Today we await the most important news.
At 20:00 Bulgarian time, the FED will announce the decision on interest rates, and 30 minutes later the press conference will begin.
Regardless of the decision, we will see large fluctuations and it is advisable to reduce the risk beforehand.
The objective remains confirmation of the upward movement here, with possible stops in both directions.
EURUSD before CPIThe first important news of the week coming up today.
We continue to look at the H1 trend reversal and buying opportunities.
On confirmation after the news and a good ratio, we will look for an entry with an initial target of 1.0940.
It is still possible to see stop hunting below the previous low of 1.0730.