Get started

Eur-usd

EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength : - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
EUR/USD: Mixed Signals Amid Diverging Economic OutlooksEUR/USD: Mixed Signals Amid Diverging Economic Outlooks The EUR/USD currency pair remains at the center of market attention, reflecting the complex interplay of economic dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic. Recent data releases, central bank signals, and historical trends provide a nuanced picture of the pair's trajectory as the year draws to a close. --- Eurozone: A Cloudy Economic Picture Weak Industrial and Retail Data: Germany, the Eurozone's economic engine, reported a 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, which, despite beating expectations, highlights underlying weakness. Additionally, retail sales across the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, signaling softness in consumer spending—a crucial growth driver. Muted Composite PMI and Revised GDP Forecasts: The Composite PMI ticked up slightly to 48.3 but remains in contraction territory, reflecting the region's economic fragility. Adding to the woes, Italy revised its GDP forecasts downward, compounding the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take more accommodative measures. ECB Policy Signals: ECB officials, including Robert Holzmann, have hinted at a possible rate cut in December, marking a shift towards cautious easing. However, the outlook is complicated by ongoing political instability in France, where a looming no-confidence vote against President Macron underscores broader regional challenges. --- United States: Resilience Amid Headwinds Economic Stability and Fed Policy: The U.S. economy continues to exhibit resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3%, and construction spending increased by 0.4%, both meeting or exceeding expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the broader picture suggests steady growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the strength of the U.S. economy while maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy. Labor Market Dynamics: The U.S. labor market remains robust, with JOLTS job openings rising to 7.744 million in October. However, the Challenger Layoffs report showed a slight increase, signaling the beginning of a potential cooling phase. The Federal Reserve remains focused on labor market stability as a key factor in its inflation trajectory. Monetary Policy Outlook: Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at the possibility of rate cuts in 2024, aligning with broader market expectations. While inflation is gradually easing, the Fed's restrictive stance underscores its commitment to flexibility and data dependency. --- Seasonality and EUR/USD Dynamics December has historically been favorable for the euro, driven by reduced market liquidity and year-end position adjustments. However, the current macroeconomic environment challenges this seasonal pattern. Weak eurozone data and the relative strength of the U.S. economy suggest that traditional seasonal trends may not be enough to reverse the bearish momentum. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Prevails Despite modest gains in recent weeks, the long-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. The eurozone's economic struggles and the ECB's dovish tilt contrast starkly with the U.S. economy's stability and the Fed's measured approach. Seasonal factors may offer temporary support for the euro, but sustained appreciation seems unlikely under the prevailing market conditions. As the year concludes, traders should remain vigilant, balancing historical patterns with evolving economic data and central bank actions. For now, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD appears to be downward, with limited potential for a significant rebound.
Short
by InvestMate
1
Potential bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise from this level to the overlap resistance. Pivot: 1.0469 1st Support: 1.0391 1st Resistance: 1.0595 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Sell EUR/USD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0500, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0442 2nd Support – 1.040 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
14
EURUSD Inverse Head and Shoulders to 1.08500EURUSD has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, confirming the bottom of the long term bearish sequence. The right shoulders is about to be completed and there is no better time to buy than now. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.08500 (marginally under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension) Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) crossed above its MA on Nov 25th, confirming the transition from long term bearish to a bullish trend. This supports our 2.0 Fib target. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
4
EUR/USD – Weak Start to the WeekEUR/USD – Weak Start to the Week The EUR/USD pair began the week with declines, driven by macroeconomic data releases and political tensions within the eurozone. --- Macroeconomic Data Impact On Monday, the final reading of the **HCOB Manufacturing PMI** for the eurozone in November was released, showing a figure of **45.2**, in line with expectations. This continues to signal weakness in the industrial sector, contributing to euro depreciation. --- Political Issues in France Political turbulence in France further weighed on the euro. Key developments included: - Budget Dispute: Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced potential no-confidence votes as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to oppose the government’s budget proposal. - Concessions: The French government dropped plans to reduce medication reimbursements to secure RN support. - Market Reaction: French bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield briefly surpassing Greece’s. The CAC 40 stock index fell 1.1% in early trading. --- ECB Comments Statements from European Central Bank members also hinted at potential monetary easing: - Olli Rehn** and **Yannis Stournaras suggested further rate cuts are likely in December due to persistent inflation concerns. - Martin Kazaks mentioned the possibility of discussing larger rate cuts, though he acknowledged significant uncertainty. --- Seasonality and EUR/USD Historically, December has been a favorable month for the euro against the dollar, driven by reduced market liquidity and year-end position adjustments. However, under the current market conditions, with weak eurozone data and robust U.S. performance, seasonality may not be sufficient to reverse the prevailing bearish trend for EUR/USD. --- USD Stability The U.S. dollar remains relatively stable, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and comments from Federal Reserve officials. - Fed Officials’ Remarks : - John Williams: The NY Fed President noted that monetary policy remains restrictive and emphasized data dependence. He expects inflation to gradually decline to 2% and forecasts U.S. GDP growth of around 2.5% in 2024. - Christopher Waller: The Fed Governor expressed support for a December rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and concerns about inflation stagnating above 2%. - Raphael Bostic: The Atlanta Fed President stated that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target and emphasized the strong footing of the U.S. economy while remaining open to future policy adjustments. - U.S. Economic Data : - ISM Manufacturing PMI (November): Increased to 48.4, above expectations but still indicating contraction. - Construction Spending (October): Rose by 0.4%. --- Outlook for EUR/USD Despite last week’s gains, the long-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. The eurozone's economic data continues to underperform, adding pressure on the ECB to accelerate rate cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and steady growth. While seasonal factors might provide temporary support for the euro, the current market dynamics suggest limited potential for sustained EUR/USD appreciation.
Short
by InvestMate
2
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0519 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 1.0600 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0334 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 100% projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD: Inverse Head and Shoulders buy signal.EURUSD is bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 38.974, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 37.510) as it continues to trade near the bottom of the long term Channel Down. At the same time its low made contact with the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone. Technically that formed the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The standard target for this pattern is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 1.08630). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% last week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment. US Data Falls Short of Expectations A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains. Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results: - **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence. While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak. Comparative Economic Outlook The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics: | Metric | US | Eurozone | |-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------| | **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% | | **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% | | **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% | | **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 | | **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 | While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges. Outlook for EUR/USD Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth. Conclusion While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing. Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded: As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally. More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally. Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.0662 1st Support: 1.0496 1st Resistance: 1.0776 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% this week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment. US Data Falls Short of Expectations A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains. Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results: - **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence. While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak. Comparative Economic Outlook The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics: | Metric | US | Eurozone | |-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------| | **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% | | **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% | | **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% | | **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 | | **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 | While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges. Outlook for EUR/USD Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth. Conclusion While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing. Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
7
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% this week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment. US Data Falls Short of Expectations A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains. Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results: - **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence. While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak. Comparative Economic Outlook The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics: | Metric | US | Eurozone | |-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------| | **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% | | **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% | | **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% | | **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 | | **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 | While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges. Outlook for EUR/USD Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth. Conclusion While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing. Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
Overlap resistance ahead?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support. Pivot: 1.0604 1st Support: 1.0452 1st Resistance: 1.0705 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Potential bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0519 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.0453 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0657 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.0604 1st Support: 1.0452 1st Resistance: 1.0705 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
2