EURCHF Sell signal on the 1D MA200 rejection.The EURCHF pair gave us a great buy-low-sell-high double trading opportunity last time we gave a call on it (June 28, see chart below) as not only did it initially rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, but straight after it dropped to the 0.618, reaching our 0.95500 Target:
The sell-off was in fact that aggressive that it reached as low as the bottom of the 2-year Channel Down, making a new Lower Low. The instant rise and rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) confirms bearish extension bias similar to the June 22 2023 rejection.
We remain bearish on this pair, targeting 0.926500 and then after a new bounce, make a final sell for a new Lower Low.
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EUR
EUR/USD: Will ECB Resume Rate Cuts Next Week? Futures markets are pricing in a US rate cut for September, with a 62% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 38% chance of 50-basis points. The Fed’s dovish shift has helped the euro surge to its highest level in more than a year.
Attention now shifts to the ECB’s 12 September rate decision. After cutting rates in June and pausing in July, analysts expect the ECB to resume easing amid slowing growth. However, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, a key hawk, maintains that inflation concerns should take priority over growth concerns.
For EUR/USD, bulls may target the December high of 1.1134 and July high of 1.1275, with support possibly near 1.1000.
EURJPY Buy opportunity only if the 1D MA50 breaks.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the March 07 2022 bottom. The start of July saw it experience a strong correction, technically the latest Bearish Leg of the pattern that broke below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 20 2023 and hit the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since March 07 2022!
The 1W MA100 held, which confirmed its status as the multi-year Support but the rebound was short-lived as, even though it marginally broke above the 1W MA50, it failed to close a candle above it.
As a result, this will be our signal to buy, a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50. Once the bullish break-out takes place, our Target will be 182.000, which represents a +19.50% rise from the Higher Low, which is the % growth of both previous Bullish Legs within the Channel Up.
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Euro analysis in the long term monthly EURUSDWith the latest update of my view on the market
The euro is making its third phase to climb, and the liquidity hunt and meeting the MPL of the second phase and confirming the classic pattern in the monthly time frame of this scenario are strengthening.
The first level, the price of 1.126 is certain for me. But what corrections we have to climb towards the end of the gap and the price of 1.605, I will put it in the lower time updates.
Bullish reversal?EUR/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 157.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 155.94
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 160.41
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into pullback resistance?EUR/AUD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.65785
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.67101
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.63589
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal?EUR/GBP is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8455
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8491
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8407
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.1109
1st Support: 1.1035
1st Resistance: 1.1149
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Is the EUR/USD Recovery a Pullback Before a Bearish Move?The EUR/USD pair rebounded following the release of the weaker-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data, prompting questions about whether this is a potential opportunity to enter short positions. After an initial rebound from the Supply area, the EUR/USD pair recovered some ground on Wednesday, likely driven by the US labor data. However, this recovery could present a pullback, offering investors a chance to add to their positions in anticipation of a possible bearish scenario.
Investors are now eagerly awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, scheduled for release on Friday. This official labor market data will be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path for interest rate cuts in September. While many investors believe that the Fed will begin reducing its key borrowing rates this month, there is still uncertainty regarding the size of the potential rate cut.
From a Commitment of Traders (COT) perspective, we can observe that retail traders are heavily positioned on the long side of the EUR/USD, which often serves as a contrarian indicator. Additionally, seasonality data points to a likely drop in the EUR in the near term. Given this COT scenario and the broader market sentiment, we are maintaining our bearish outlook on the EUR/USD and see this pullback as an opportunity to consider short positions.
With key data releases on the horizon, such as the NFP, traders should remain cautious but be prepared for further downside in the EUR/USD pair as market conditions evolve.
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Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1023
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0955
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1102
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which is lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EUR/USD Faces Renewed Pressure as USD StrengthensThe EUR/USD pair has recently faced renewed downward pressure after reaching year-to-date (YTD) peaks beyond the 1.1200 level. This shift in momentum comes amid a resurgence in buying interest for the US Dollar (USD), which has dampened the pair's ability to sustain its upward trajectory.
Several factors have contributed to the recent rebound in the US Dollar. Mixed data from advanced Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) in the euro area have weighed against the continuation of the EUR/USD pair's march northward. This economic data suggested that the eurozone's recovery may not be as robust as previously anticipated, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the EUR. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently released its Accounts, revealing that policymakers saw no immediate need to lower interest rates last month. However, they warned that a new discussion on the matter could take place in September as high rates continue to impact economic growth in the region.
From a technical perspective, the Euro has reached a strong supply area, as indicated by the EUR futures chart. This zone has acted as a significant barrier to further gains, and the pair’s inability to break above this level suggests the presence of substantial selling pressure. You can observe this technical resistance in the EUR futures chart on TradingView
EUR Futures Chart
Should the price manage to break through this supply zone, the next potential area for a reversal could be around the 1.3800 mark. However, this is contingent on several factors, including the broader economic landscape and the relative strength of the US Dollar.
Looking ahead, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe in the long term, suggesting that any prolonged weakness in the Dollar might be temporary. The stronger economic fundamentals in the US, coupled with potential policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve, could provide additional support for the USD, thereby exerting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown some bullish tendencies in recent weeks, the combination of mixed economic data, technical resistance, and the potential for a stronger US Dollar suggests that the path forward could be challenging. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic releases and central bank communications for further clues on the pair's direction.
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Gold to continue bullish?Targeting new ATHs for gold in next few weeks. Two failed attempts to break and hold outside the orderblock. Third break and retest I want to be entered in longs, 1:3RR 1%R, will swing this trade until target is reached.
Plenty news this week with USD. Will be interesting to see what develops. I believe gold wants to climb higher.
Waiting for +300Pip trade in EUR/JPY(09/03/2024)after a long run in the last few weeks, EUR/JPY corrected smoothly and finally gave us to jump in some trades.
if you watch closely the price has reached the daily OB and moved sharply upward, this kind of move has made a CHOCH indicating the overall correction on Daily OB has been ended and the price is likely heading upward.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Team Fortuna
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(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
EURGBP Will the Support hold?Great signal out of the EURGBP pair last time we analyzed it (June 25, see chart below), as the price hit and even surpassed our 0.8550 Target:
Following that High, the pair collapsed and is about to test Support 1, which technically is Lower Lows region for the long-term Channel Down. As long as the 1D RSI Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will look for a buy on Support 1 and target the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 0.8530.
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Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.94637
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.95268
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.93756
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Sell EURUSD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1015
2nd Support – 1.0988
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1100 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/ISD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support level.
Pivot: 1.1109
1st Support: 1.1020
1st Resistance: 1.1195
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Eu scalp Sell!Short Setup on EUR/USD 💥
Checking out this juicy short setup on the EUR/USD 15m chart! 🎯
Short Entry: Below 1.1062
Stop Loss: Above 1.1073
Take Profit: Around 1.1052
Price is bouncing off the 200 SMA, and I’m looking for a drop to the previous support. Let’s see if the bears can take control! 🐻📉
EURUSD Long-term Sell Signal confirmed.The EURUSD pair confirmed with last week's closing the start of a new bearish sequence as it closed the 1W candle in deep red below even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This established not only the previous High as the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 11-month Channel Up but also posted an identical long-term Top sequence as the July 17 2023 weekly candle.
As you can see on both tops a long-term series of red weeks was initiated, both of then stopping on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As a result, our 1.0900 medium-term bearish Target appears to be a modest one as it is where we anticipate the first wave of buyers (Support) on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) 1W MA100 (green trend-line) cluster. This may provide a bounce similar to February 12 2024.
As a side-note, notice how the 1W RSI posted a similar rejection - reversal top on the 70.00 overbought barrier, same as July 10 2023.
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