EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
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EUR
EURJPY: Well supported on the 1W MA100 but needs more to rise.EURJPY is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.394, MACD = 0.690, ADX = 37.501), practically neutral as it's been ranging between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. The long term pattern is a Channel Up since 2021 and the recent 1W MA100 test is the new bottom (HL) of the pattern. The 1W MA50-100 consolidation is the bottom formation and even though it's encouraging we need a crossing over the 1W MA50 in order to validate the new rise. Technically it should be around +18.70% like the previous two. Set your target accordingly (TP = 183.500).
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Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0986, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0935
2nd Support – 1.0909
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1005. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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EUR/USD Decline Amid Strong US Dollar Ahead of Key Economic DataAs forecasted in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, continuing its descent over the past two days, reaching around 1.09300 during the London session. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain bullish on the pair. Despite this, the price is approaching one of the two demand areas we've identified, though we are currently awaiting a possible bullish impulse if the price drops to the lower demand zone.
US Dollar Strength and Market Sentiment
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains near its highest level since mid-August as traders have adjusted their expectations regarding a potential 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The likelihood of such a cut has been largely priced out, with current market sentiment suggesting a 20% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. This expectation was reinforced by the hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which underpinned the USD's strength.
DXY ( USD ) Daily Chart
The elevated yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which remains above the 4% threshold, continues to support the US Dollar, acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. The stronger USD, coupled with market sentiment around potential Fed actions, has weighed heavily on the Euro in recent sessions.
Upcoming Economic Data and Market Impact
Today brings several important economic releases that could inject volatility into the market, including:
Core CPI (Consumer Price Index)
CPI y/y
CPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
These reports are key indicators of inflation and employment in the United States, and they could shift the market's outlook for the US Dollar. Currently, the forecasts suggest that the data may work against the USD, potentially leading to an initial bullish move in EUR/USD. However, the ultimate impact will depend on how closely the actual data aligns with expectations.
Our Strategy: Waiting for a Key Demand Support
At this time, we are not opening any positions as we await the price to reach the lowest demand support level. A potential bullish reversal may occur once this level is tested, and we’ll be closely monitoring market movements following today's key economic data releases. Patience remains essential as we look for confirmation of a potential bullish setup.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, driven by USD strength amid expectations of steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve. As key economic data is released today, we anticipate increased market volatility, which could present trading opportunities. For now, we are waiting for the pair to reach critical demand levels before considering any new positions. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to monitor market developments.
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EURAUD to continue in the upward move?EURAUD - 24h expiry
The medium term bias remains bullish.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Bespoke support is located at 1.6235.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
We look to Buy at 1.6235 (stop at 1.6185)
Our profit targets will be 1.6355 and 1.6385
Resistance: 1.6350 / 1.6440 / 1.6500
Support: 1.6235 / 1.6190 / 1.6100
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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EUR/USD in Trouble? BofA May Think So Bank of America (BofA) anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates more aggressively than what is currently reflected in the EUR/USD.
This expectation is driven by doubts surrounding the ECB's estimate of the neutral rate and shifting savings and investment patterns within the Euro Area.
Even so, the EUR/USD has dropped to a new weekly low of 1.0950. With the U.S. dollar maintaining a bullish trend across the FX market, the pair may decline further, potentially testing the next support level at 1.0910.
If BofA’s forecast holds true, EUR/USD could revisit the lower highs seen in August and July, signaling a deeper pullback.
EUR/USD Extends Decline as USD Strengthens Ahead of FOMC MinutesAs predicted, EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, which is performing strongly ahead of the much-anticipated FOMC Minutes release. The dollar’s strength is fueled by the market’s expectations of more insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. With the FOMC minutes on the horizon, the price of EUR/USD may drop further, presenting traders with critical levels to watch for a possible retracement.
Technical Outlook: Key Areas for a Potential Rebound
We have identified two crucial retracement zones where a reversal could occur. These levels, based on historical price action and current market sentiment, may offer opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the next potential move. However, patience is essential as we await the market’s reaction to the FOMC Minutes, which could trigger volatility and provide clearer direction.
Sentiment Analysis: Divergence Between Retail and Smart Money
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows an interesting shift in market sentiment. Retail traders turned bearish last week, likely responding to the recent strength of the US Dollar. However, when zooming out to a six-month view, these retail traders are still predominantly long, indicating some indecision in the broader market.
In contrast, Smart Money—typically institutional investors—has begun to accumulate long positions in EUR/USD. This divergence between retail traders and smart money suggests that while short-term sentiment favors a bearish outlook, institutional traders are positioning for a potential upward move in the future.
Patience is Key
At this stage, patience remains the most important tool for traders. With critical levels identified and the market still digesting the strength of the US Dollar, we are awaiting a clear reaction to the price levels shown on the chart. The upcoming FOMC Minutes could act as the catalyst needed to confirm the next big move in EUR/USD.
Conclusion
EUR/USD continues its decline as the US Dollar rallies ahead of the FOMC Minutes. While short-term bearish sentiment dominates the market, institutional players are starting to accumulate long positions, signaling potential for a future rebound. Traders should remain cautious and patient, waiting for a clearer signal before taking action, particularly as we approach key price levels that may offer opportunities for retracement.
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EURGBP: Significant upside potential on the short term.EURGBP is neutral on its 1D techhnical outlook (RSI = 48.804, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 22.675) as it consolidates having failed to cross over the 1D MA50. Given the 1 year Channel Down pattern, the 1D MA50 shouldn't stand as a Resistance for long, since the price is having this rebound after a clear LL on its bottom. We expect the 1D MA200 to be tested (TP = 0.8500) with the upside potentially extending as high as +2.80%.
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EURUSD: Dead cat bounce to 1.10500 expected.EURUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.133, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.825) which given the fact that the price is approaching the LL trendline, it allows for some room to recover some losses. We expect this to be a dead cat bounce but a short term buy opportunity nonetheless. Target the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.10500).
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Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0955
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.0899
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.1048
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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EA could see some more potential bounce off the lows/support nowHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
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EURUSD Confirmed sell signal with MA50 (1d) confirmationEURUSD broke below the MA50 (1d) for the first time since August 2nd, which is a technical sell signal.
The MA50 (1d) has been the pivot of the Ascending Triangle and every break below it has delivered more downside.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the next rebound to the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 1.078000 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is posting the same pattern of the December top. Technical sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURUSD formed the first 4H Death Cross in 4 months.The Double Top on EURUSD last time we mentioned it (September 23, see chart below) worked perfectly and followed its technical bearish bias as not only did the price got rejected but also broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the May's Channel Up:
At the same time, the pair just completed its first Death Cross on the 4H time-frame in almost 4 months (since June 14) and every time in the past 2 and more years (except June 14) that it made that formation, it gave a solid medium-term (at least) sell signal.
As a result, there is no reason to diverge from the 1.08350 bearish Target, which as with the February 14 Low, it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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EURUSD PROBABILITY/BOSIBILITYCurrent Market Overview: The EUR/USD pair is showing consolidation in a key no trade area, with price trading sideways between levels of liquidity and a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Let's dive deeper into the potential price movements based on this market structure.
Key Zones Identified:
Fair Value Gap (FVG):
The FVG on the 15-minute chart is located slightly above the current price. This area typically attracts the price as it represents inefficiency where orders are likely to be filled.
Watch for a potential move upwards to fill this gap before any significant market direction is established.
Liquidity Zone:
A key liquidity zone is marked just above the FVG. Liquidity zones are areas where stop-losses of traders are clustered, creating an opportunity for market makers to push prices in these areas to capture that liquidity.
If the price moves toward this zone, expect a reaction as buyers or sellers attempt to capitalize on this liquidity.
No Trade Area:
The current price is in a no trade area, which suggests that it's a period of indecision and low trading volume. Traders should wait for a breakout before making entries to avoid getting trapped in consolidations.
This zone is bounded by resistance near 1.09800 and support near 1.09400.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above the current consolidation zone, we could see the price head towards the liquidity area and fill the Fair Value Gap around the 1.10024 level. Traders might look for buy setups targeting this zone.
Bearish Scenario:
On the other hand, if the price breaks downwards from the current no trade area, there is potential to see a move towards the next support zone around 1.09125. This could provide a selling opportunity for those aiming to short the pair.
Strategy Consideration:
Wait for Confirmation: Since the price is in a no trade area, it is advisable to wait for a breakout either above or below the current range. Entering before a clear trend emerges could expose traders to unnecessary risk.
Watch Key Levels: Traders should closely monitor the FVG and liquidity zones for potential entry points. These levels often act as magnets, drawing the price to them before reversing or continuing the trend.
Conclusion: Currently, EUR/USD is consolidating with key areas of interest just above and below the market price. A breakout from the no trade area will give us a clearer indication of the next major move. As always, ensure you have proper risk management in place and trade with a plan.
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Falling towards 61.8% Fibonacci support?EUR/AUD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.60641
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.60042
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.61802
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Bearish drop?EUR/NZD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.78263
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.79446
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 1.76171
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD is falling towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0943
1st Support: 1.0894
1st Resistance: 1.1003
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 6/10/24Starting off the week with euro to the US dollar. I bearish bias came into play as we thought it might. we now have a longer term bearish outlook for this pair. We swept all of the liquidity that was based on the lower end of price action except for the low that we have marked which is relatively close to current price We have an area of supply to watch if we pull back to go lower. We also have a liquid high that's seated above that point. So take into consideration that we may break through the short term trajectory that we have made. this can give us a higher pullback to the upper higher time frame water block if this happens we are still expecting a short main bias here is for the area of supply to be tapped into in price action to sell to the low that we have marked.
Trade safe, stick to your plan and your risk.
R2F Weekly Analysis - 6th October 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
EUR/USD Faces Downside as Powell's Hawkish Remarks Boost USDThe EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Monday continue to support the US Dollar (USD), capping any significant upside potential for the Euro (EUR). Powell’s stance suggests that the Federal Reserve is still focused on curbing inflation, which has strengthened the USD and weighed on the major pair.
At the same time, expectations for more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have contributed to keeping a lid on the EUR/USD. This comes ahead of key economic data releases, particularly the flash Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. The pair, as predicted last week, is currently trading within a supply area, with price action forming a double top pattern. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bullish on the Euro, while larger institutional players are more cautious, signaling potential downside risks.
The flash CPI report, due later today, is expected to show that inflation in the Eurozone likely fell below the ECB’s 2% target in September. This follows a notable drop in Germany’s CPI to its lowest level since February 2021, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting in October. A softer CPI print would likely reaffirm these rate cut bets, applying further downward pressure on the Euro.
However, even if the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, the market reaction could be muted. The modest strength of the USD, supported by Powell's comments and the overall hawkish stance of the Fed, suggests that EUR/USD may struggle to gain upward momentum. The path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside, as the technical setup points to a potential bearish continuation.
In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair trading in a supply area and forming a double top, coupled with a cautious outlook from institutional traders, the risk of a bearish continuation looms large. Key economic data, including the Eurozone CPI, will be closely watched today, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favor of the USD, keeping pressure on the pair. Traders should remain alert to further downside movement, especially if the ECB rate cut expectations solidify.
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