EURUSD 1h 1H - The bearish context is evident due to Friday's news. For Monday and Tuesday, I expect a corrective move targeting the equal lows.
EUR
EURAUD: Confirmed Bullish Reversal?! 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
EURAUD formed a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
With the release of the yesterday's fundamentals, the price bounced and violated
the neckline of the pattern.
Growth may continue next week.
Next resistance - 1.6475
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Euro can rebound from support level and start to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a not long time ago started to decline inside the downward channel, where it rebounded from the support line and rose to the resistance line, after which continued to decline near this line. In a short time, EUR fell to a support level and even made a fake breakout of it, after which turned around and made a strong upward impulse, exiting from the downward channel. Then price almost reached the resistance level, turned around, and fell lower 1.0810 level, breaking it. But then, EURUSD turned around and started to grow inside an upward pennant, where it broke the support level again and later the resistance level too, reaching the resistance line of the pennant. After this, the price bounced down, breaking the 1.0890 level, which coincided with the seller zone again. But then, the price tried to back up and even made a fake breakout of this level, after which made impulse down, exiting from the pennant. Now, I think that the Euro can decline to a support level and then start to grow, therefore I set my target at 1.0870 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD (Bullish Side...)EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is trading under bullish pressure towards 1.0950, provided it remains above 1.0872. A correction down to 1.0861 is possible before resuming the bullish trend. However, stability below 1.0861 could support a decline towards 1.0810 and 1.0792.
Pivot Price: 1.0872
Resistance Levels: 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1070
Support Levels: 1.0830, 1.0792, 1.0731
The price is expected to oscillate between the support at 1.0861 and the resistance at 1.0950.
US Dollar Declines Ahead of May Employment Report
Early Friday, the US dollar weakened against most of its major trading partners, except for an improvement against the Canadian dollar. Investors are now focused on the upcoming May employment report, set for release at 8:30 am ET.
Expectations for the report include a rise in nonfarm payrolls by 185,000, an unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.9%, and a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings.
EUR/USD Loses Momentum as Market Awaits Key US Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced a setback on Tuesday after reaching its highest level since late March, climbing above 1.0900 before closing the day in negative territory. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests a lack of bullish momentum as attention shifts to upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the United States.
Technical Analysis Overview
In the lower timeframes, particularly on the H1 chart, EUR/USD shows a harmonic movement within an uptrend, characterized by swing highs and lower highs. Pullbacks have been consistently supported at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potentially strong base for a new bullish impulse. This technical setup suggests that a positive reaction to upcoming economic news could trigger a fresh upward movement.
Key Economic Data Releases
The focus is now on two critical economic indicators from the US: the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for May. These releases are expected to provide significant insights into the state of the US economy and influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory.
1. ADP Employment Change: Market expectations are for a rise of 173,000 in private sector employment for May. This report is an important gauge of the labor market's health and can affect market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.
2. ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI is projected to recover to a reading above 50, indicating expansion, with expectations set at 50.5 for May, up from April's 49.4. A reading above 50 suggests growth in the services sector, which is crucial for overall economic performance.
Potential Market Reactions
The EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by these data releases. Stronger-than-expected figures could bolster the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, if the data disappoints, it could weaken the USD, providing a potential boost to the EUR/USD pair.
Conclusion
Currently, the EUR/USD pair displays a lack of sustained bullish momentum, but the upcoming US economic data could serve as a catalyst for change. Traders should pay close attention to the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI releases, as they will offer crucial insights into the health of the US economy and guide expectations for future monetary policy. The technical outlook on the lower timeframes indicates a potential for a bullish impulse, provided that the economic data supports such a move. The EUR/USD pair remains at a pivotal point, with the direction likely to be shaped by the forthcoming macroeconomic indicators.
EURNZD to find sellers at market?EURNZD - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains negative.
Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
20 4hour EMA is at 1.7597.
We look for a temporary move higher.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 1.7598 (stop at 1.7648)
Our profit targets will be 1.7478 and 1.7458
Resistance: 1.7600 / 1.7650 / 1.7680
Support: 1.7571 / 1.7525 / 1.7500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURUSD is approaching a significant support areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.08200 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURNZD is approaching a significant resistance area.Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURNZD for a selling opportunity around 1.76100 zone, EURNZD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.76100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EUR/JPY looks ready to ripThe ECB are expected to cut their benchmark rate for the first time in 8 years in a few hours. Yet as it has been so well telegraphed and they seem unlikely to provide promise of further cuts just yet, we suspect upside potential for euro pairs once the dust has settled. And with Wall Street at new highs and appetite for risk on the rise, EUR/JPY looks good for long setups.
A bullish inside day formed on Wednesday, and whilst it met resistance at the 2008 high it has since found support at the 20-day EMA. The daily chart shows prices holding above the daily pivot point, and a bullish engulfing candle has formed with a bullish RSI divergence. A bullish flag also appears to be forming.
The bias remains bullish above 169, although the 20-day EMA or cycle lows can be used to aid with risk management if momentum turns higher. A break above 170 brings the daily R2 / 61.8% projection into focus, and the flag suggests a target just above the 170.72 highs.
Could EUR/USD reverse from here?Price is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.09140
1st Support: 1.08408
1st Resistance: 1.09487
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Sell EURAUD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.6336, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.6282
2nd Support – 1.6242
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6390. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
ECB Rate Cut Looms: EUR/USD Set to Slide?Given the increasing likelihood that the ECB will cut rates before the Fed, further EUR/USD depreciation could be anticipated in the coming days/ weeks. A move below the 100-day moving average would have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average of 1.0853.
However, weaker jobs data from the US this week is tempering this expectation, which means some upside targets can be charted still. If bulls maintain control, EUR/USD may test the June high of 1.0916, followed by the three peaks of March, before reaching the crucial 1.1000 level.
The JOLTs job openings report showed a decline of 296,000 from the previous month, dropping to 8.059 million in April 2024. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and below the market consensus of 8.34 million.
The ADP Employment Change report revealed that private US hiring in May increased by 152,000, falling short of the estimates of 175,000 and below April’s figure of 188,000.
Next up is the NonFarm Payrolls report on Friday. For the exact date and time, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts directly to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance.
EURJPY to remain mixed and volatile?EURJPY - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
We look to Sell at 169.95 (stop at 170.55)
Our profit targets will be 168.45 and 168.15
Resistance: 171.20 / 175.50 / 178.55
Support: 167.35 / 164.30 / 161.90
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURAUD Still bearish within the Channel Down.This is basically an update to our last EURAUD analysis (April 05, see chart below) two months ago:
As you can see the price was rejected at the top of the 1-year Channel Down but since May 07 has turned sideways. In fact, looking at the 1D RSI, we see a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence since April 09, while the price was on Lower Lows.
This is similar to the Higher Lows that started on December 01 2023 and resulted in a Bullish Leg of +3.39%. As a result, we are taking profit on our sell position and open a buy, targeting 1.6550 (top of the so far dominant Channel Down).
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EURUSD: IntradayDear traders!
A mid-term channel is clear in the chart.
A short-term channel is also there! Any breaking below the bottom of short-term channel is hunting liquidity as long as we are perfectly over the zone!
Any breaks below the zone alter the bearish scenario! Remember that Final Manufacturing PMI release if USA could change the market direction.
Could EUR/USD reverse from here?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.08941
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.09159
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.08586
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/JPY is rising towards the pivot point which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 169.45
1st Support: 167.39
1st Resistance: 170.82
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD:Potential Market Movements Ahead of Key US Economic DataOn Monday, EUR/USD reached its highest level since late March, surpassing 1.0915. However, after making slight gains during the Asian session on Tuesday, the pair lost momentum and fell below this level. Market participants are now focused on the April JOLTS Job Openings data from the US, set to be released later today.
US Economic Indicators
On Monday, data from the US revealed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in May from 49.2 in April, indicating that business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to contract at an accelerating rate. Furthermore, the Prices Paid Index, which measures inflation, decreased to 57 from 60.9. Following the release of the PMI report, the US Dollar (USD) experienced significant selling pressure, aiding the EUR/USD in pushing higher.
Federal Reserve Rate Expectations
The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its policy rate unchanged in September dropped to 40% from nearly 50% before the PMI data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This shift in expectations has influenced the market sentiment towards the USD.
Upcoming JOLTS Job Openings Data
Today's release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data will be crucial. If the data falls below expectations, it could trigger another upward move in EUR/USD. Currently, the price is finding support levels, while the optimistic forecast for JOLTS Job Openings suggests potential strength for the USD.
Strategic Trade Setup
In anticipation of potential market reactions, we have placed two Buy Limit orders to capitalize on possible pullback areas for the EUR. These orders are set to engage if the price dips, positioning us to benefit from a subsequent upward movement.
In summary, the EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by today's JOLTS Job Openings data. Traders should watch for deviations from forecasts, as this will likely impact both the EUR and USD.
EURNZD intraday rallies continues to attract sellers.EURNZD - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains negative.
Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
50 4hour EMA is at 1.7683.
We look for a temporary move higher.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 1.7683 (stop at 1.7733)
Our profit targets will be 1.7563 and 1.7533
Resistance: 1.7650 / 1.7680 / 1.7720
Support: 1.7620 / 1.7571 / 1.7530
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURUSD Bullish break-out or Bearish rejection?The EURUSD pair cemented a strong rebound yesterday as it broke above the May 16 High, after it held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This took yesterday's 1D candle exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the December 28 2023 Channel Down.
This is the last chance for the pair to resume the pattern's downtrend, if today's 1D candle closes inside the Channel Down, which will constitute a Lower Highs rejection. In that case, we will require a closing below the 1D MA50 as well in order to confirm the downtrend. The 1.0640 Support will be the Target.
If however the candle closes above the Channel Down, it will be a confirmed bullish break-out and in our opinion there will be high probabilities of imitating the July 2023 rally. That rise peaked exactly on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level, so on that occasion, that will be our Target (1.1125), which conveniently falls just below the 1.11400 Resistance. Notice also how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two fractals.
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Falling towards a pullback support, could it bounce from here?EUR/USD is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.08932
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.08623
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.09421
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD: Buy the 4H MA50 pullback and sell at the top.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.032, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.518) and on 4H it is attempting a closing above the R1 level. On the short term we have a Channel Up that will validate the new Bullish Leg if we close a 4H candle over the R1 level. If that happens, we will buy the first pullback to the 4H MA50 and aim for a +1.43% from the latest Low (TP = 1.09400), exactly what took place on April 26th. In the same manner, we will short then and aim for the 4H MA200 (TP = 1.08500).
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EURCAD is approaching a significant supportHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURCAD for a buying opportunity around 1.47700 zone, EURCAD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.47700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
