EUR
EURUSD - Wait For The Impulse 📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bullish short-term, trading within the rising wedge pattern in blue.
Currently, EURUSD is hovering around the lower bound of the wedge pattern.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone in blue.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD - Updated Analysis (Bearish Bias)Hello hello,
I am anticipating TWO possible scenarios. For context, you would have to know ICT's Concepts, particularly Time & Price Theory, Price Delivery Continuum, and the PD Array Matrix. Sounds fancy shmancy, but it isn't, it's actually quite beautiful.
Anyway, the TWO scenarios are:
1. Price comes up into the RED circle area. We have a large inefficiency on lower timeframes. On the Weekly we see a Body Breaker and a New Month Opening Gap. After that, price displaces lower this Thursday or Friday as there is also NFP. What i'm looking for is price closing below the current SIBI that the Weekly candle is in.
2. Price does not come up to that area this week, then I am looking for a 3W Sibi to be created and traded into first before moving lower. But preferably, I would like to see that no Weekly candle closes above the current Weekly gap.
Please refer to my previous EURUSD analysis for more information on what I am looking for, and how I am looking for it.
- R2F
EURUSD 2 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / US Jobless This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is mixed following the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech. The US dollar initially strengthened after the Fed, but then weakened as investors focused on the central bank's dovish comments. This could be positive for EURUSD, which climbed after the Fed meeting. However, caution is still warranted as Non-Farm Payroll data, a key US jobs report, is due on Friday, which could impact the dollar and EURUSD again.
The following news today will have some volatility before NFP tomorrow:
German Mfg PMI Final
Eurozone Mfg PMI Final
US Trade Balance
US Initial Jobless Claims
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, it signals that the Swig PB maybe over and we are currently Pro Swing.
After the Bearish iBOS we are expecting a PB which already reached the Refined 4H FLIP Zone.
Currently the Liquidity above the 4H Supply which makes it not a HP Zone for Shorts unless we have clear Bearish Structure formation on the 15m.
I Prefer the Sweep of Liq above the 4H Supply (CHoCH) before Shorts.
Also be mindful that the Strong INT High could be run in the situation of a complex Deeper Pullback Phase for the 4H Swing.
With FOMC Yesterday and NFP tomorrow, this is the behavior of price due to Investors positioning.
Note: Daily is ranging and 4H too 🤷♂️
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Shorts Phase B (HP)
Longs Phase C (LP)
2.
With the volatility of yesterday news, price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme.
No clear direction as we are back again to the same range we are in since Apr 23.
Shorts make sense, but no potential POI / Clear INT Structure to follow.
Also with the 4H Liquidity above the 15m Swing High, there is a HP that the 15m Swing will get run.
3.
After the Bearish BOS we expected a Pullback, which was initiated after the Bullish iBOS.
EURUSD - Time to trap the herd going long?As mentioned in my previous analysis on EURUSD, what I was looking for came to pass. The large swing move did not occur yet, so i'm anticipating one more spike up higher before we head to the downside.
I have a few things leaning towards my short bias:
1. Seasonal tendency for the USD is stronger. This is suspect for XXXUSD pairs to be going up.
2. May's monthly candle barely went lower in terms of Power of 3 manipulation, meaning i'm leaning more towards the manipulation being on the upside rather than downside.
3. DXY has my signature R2F Gap where I anticipate a reversal on EURUSD, and EURUSD has a nice area of inefficiency and a Breaker, which are both my favorite models.
4. Other EURUSD correlated assets are engineering Sellside Liquidity for later.
A long could be taken higher, but I will be stalking the short setup i've been waiting for. I was open to it being the recent spike lower, but I see now the market is trying to do a multiple switcheroo. This will likely be the last one.
So let's see what happens! Exciting times!
- R2F
EURUSD 1 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - US FOMC/Powell Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
A day the markets awaits loaded with high impact news events. Starting with US ADP, Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and ending with Rate Decision and Powell speech.
Today's FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are eagerly anticipated by the market, as both have the potential to significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. The Dollar Index has advanced as investor focus shifts to these pivotal events. Should the FOMC statement or Powell's comments lean towards a more hawkish stance, indicating a preference for higher interest rates, it could bolster the US dollar and exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, if the statement or remarks lean towards a more dovish stance, suggesting a inclination towards lower interest rates, it could weaken the US dollar and generate some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
No clear Demand zone available to initiate the INT Structure Pullback.
Price could continue bearish without Pullback as we are in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Expectation is set to continue bearish targeting the Weak Swing Low.
4.
With the recent INT Structure turning Bearish confirming the Swing Pullback Phase may had ended, the Swing Bearish Continuation Phase started targeting the Weak Swing Low.
Current 4H Supply (FLIP Zone) could provide an opportunity for Shorts after the Bearish iBOS inline with the Bearish Swing and Continuation Phase.
Also be mindful that today is loaded with high impact news which will have a high volatility.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
OF Bearish
2.
Swing continuing Bearish with Bearish BOS.
After a BOS we expect a pullback.
There is no HTF Zone that can be potential for the Swing Pullback Phase.
Will wait for INT Structure to turn Bullish to look for Longs. Otherwise i prefer Shorts from the 4H Supply as it aligns with the HTF Bearish Phase and targets.
3.
No Clear Demand to initiate the Swing Pullback.
Waiting for INT Structure formation.
Sell EURCAD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 1.4660 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones:
1.4616: This represents the first level of support within the channel.
1.4588: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 1.4682. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Buy EURAUD Channel Breakout The EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent upward breakout from a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further gains in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 1.6300 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones:
1.6402: This represents the first level of resistance within the channel.
1.6456: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.6290. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards.
Thank you
EURCAD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.47500 zone, EURCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.47500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Short-term Bull Flag targeting top of Channel Down.EURUSD held the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support both today and on Friday and is rebounding. This is a short-term Bull Flag within the 4-month Channel Down pattern that is targeting its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As per the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel, we are targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08300.
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EURUSD 30 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI GDP / US CFThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Sentiment from Monday (April 29th) could carry over to Tuesday, depending on the outcome of Eurozone data releases (CPI, GDP) and US ( Consumer Confidence). A strong Euro today due to positive data might see some continuation.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development needed.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
No much change from yesterday, we still ranging within a Bullish INT Structure within a Bearish Swing.
Possible Longs from the the current fresh 15m demand but be mindful that we swept the Liquidity below it and the 15m Bearish Swing could continue and run the INT Low.
Shorts are currently not my interest till we have another Bearish Swing.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
EUR/NZD potential bearish dropPrice is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.79858
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.80981
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 1.78414
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURCAD: Geopolitical and Technical AnalysisThe euro is susceptible to fluctuations in energy prices, while the Canadian dollar stands to gain from them. Any developments concerning the conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine, as well as increased tensions in these regions, could potentially lead to a bearish sentiment for EUR/CAD. However, I believe that the market's reaction to previous events, such as the Iran-Israel conflict, was perhaps exaggerated, and now there seems to be a reevaluation as markets return to their previous positions. We may see this trend persist until the next unexpected development from oil-producing countries
I predict the green path, but I'm open to considering the red path as well.
This viewpoint incorporates both intraday and long-term trading perspectives. Enter the trade after the zones have been breached.. Regarding the long-term view, just follow the path after breaking the lines
EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Bias with Short-Term Bullish PotentialTraders,
Here's our analysis across different timeframes:
Daily Chart: Strong bearish sentiment prevails, supported by a bearish channel formation, signaling potential long-term bearish trajectory.
4-Hour Chart: Consider the high of last week as a prime level for short positions. However, be prepared to switch to a bullish outlook if this level is breached.
15-Minute Chart: Look to short the pair for intraday trading opportunities, with a clear entry point at the cluster of pivot points, a reversal point and previous week high.
Be caution and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
Best regards,
EURUSD 29 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - GER CPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, limiting significant movement in the pair. However, the intervention in JPY leading to a USD weakness which will provide support for EURUSD some Bullish stand.
Also note that the current week includes EU CPI and US FOMC / NFP which most probably result in a volatility and investors are positioning for that upcoming news events.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
Currently price at a 15m/4H Supply zones that could initiate the Swing continuation phase.
Possible Phase B Shorts but be mindful that the 4H INT Structure still Bullish and we may see another deep Swing pullback which will reflect on a Bullish 15m Swing BOS.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
EUR/GBP potential bullish rise?Price has just bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.85516
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.85204
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take profit: 0.85856
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD 28/4/24Starting off as we do most weeks with EURUSD we gave out this idea way back at the start of this month and we are finally starting to see price line up with our bias, now of course as always we are waiting for an idea we have to line up and provide context tot the higher time frame move to then allow us to trade on the lower time frames, this is now in play from the view of the 1hr chart as you see marked on our chart here!
At the end of last week we had a nice break to the downside leaving some clear spaces for us to watch to confirm this downside shift, after all we spent most of last week travelling up with speed and momentum.
now because we see a sign this might be changing i am looking to confirm this and sell into the daily and weekly trend of down!
Points to watch this week.
FVG on this new hourly range, OB at the top of the range that gave this move the power it currently has.
Remember we aren't picking and choosing what price does we trade what it chows us and add relevance and context depending on where it decides to do certain things.
Trade what you see, not what you believe you should be seeing!
Euro can rebound up to seller zone, breaking resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago rose a little and then made a strong downward impulse to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, breaking the 1.0740 resistance level. After this movement, the EUR turned around and started to rise inside the upward channel, where it firstly a little rose and then declined to the buyer zone. Price some time traded in this area and soon exited from it, making a fake breakout of 1.0625 level and then rose almost to the resistance line of the channel. But soon it turned around and declined to support line of the channel, after which rebounded up, making a fake breakout of the support level one more time. After this movement, the Euro in a short time rose to a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and not a long time ago rebounded and started to decline. At the moment, I think that the EUR can almost decline to the support line of the channel and then rebound up to the seller zone, breaking the resistance level. So, that's why I set my target at the 1.0760 level, which is located in the seller zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD1h - The hourly timeframe appears less clear despite our short context. The main target was reached in the form of equal lows, which were forming throughout the week. I believe it's quite likely to see a breach of the previous day low (PDL) on Monday, after which the continuation of the long trend may begin. However, this is just speculation. It's important to see how the Asian session behaves as it often provides many clues for intraday trading.