Usd clearly break up, could pullback this weekHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
On the backdrop of the CPI data hinting that inflation is still hot, FED kicked the interest cut ball lower down the street ( later than Jun, i believe). Therefore the strength in USD i guess.
Majors capitulated. Watch for some bounce if u want to long pairs like EU GU for a quick run. But likely overall is a short majors for me ( e.g. EU GU)
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
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EUR
HelenP. I Euro can break trend line and rise to resistance levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. A few moments ago price reached the resistance zone, which coincided with resistance 2, but soon price turned around and in a short time declined to resistance 1, thereby exiting from the 1.0850 - 1.0870 resistance area and starting to trades inside from consolidation. In range, the price at once rebounded from resistance 1 and rose back to the 1.0850 - 1.0870 resistance area, but soon Euro turned around and declined below, making a fake breakout of resistance 2. Price some time traded near this level and later it entered to 1.0850 - 1.0870 resistance area one more time and then it reached the trend line. After this, the Euro rebounded and made a strong impulse down to resistance 1, breaking resistance 2 again and soon price broke resistance 1 too, thereby exiting from consolidation as well. Also then, EUR some time traded in one more resistance area, after which it declined more. For my mind, the Euro will start to move up to the resistance level, thereby breaking the trend line. That's why I set my target at the 1.0725 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD: Fed Grapples with Surging CPI and NFP FiguresDear Traders,
As we gear up for the week ahead, our attention zeroes in on EURUSD, where we anticipate a selling opportunity to manifest around the 1.06600 zone. EURUSD continues its downward trajectory, presently navigating a correction phase as it approaches the pivotal support and resistance area at 1.06600.
Delving into the fundamental underpinnings, recent economic indicators paint a picture of USD strength. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed robust job creation, with March recording an impressive increase of 303k jobs compared to the previous month's 212k, surpassing market expectations. This surge in employment underscores the resilience of the US economy.
Furthermore, examining the Consumer Price Index (CPI) trend reveals a consistent uptick in inflationary pressures. Over recent months, CPI data has shown a steady climb:
Mar 12, 2024: 3.5%
Feb 13, 2024: 3.2%
Jan 11, 2024: 3.0%
Dec 12, 2023: 2.8%
Nov 14, 2023: 2.5%
This sustained inflationary trend has heightened concerns and could prompt a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve as policymakers aim to curb inflation risks by tightening monetary policy.
Considering these developments, the Federal Reserve might pivot towards a more hawkish stance in response to the buoyant US economy and escalating inflation. Such a stance could further bolster the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on EURUSD.
Therefore, as we monitor EURUSD for a potential selling opportunity around 1.06600, it's imperative to remain vigilant of the numerical metrics and their implications on market sentiment and direction.
Wishing you prudent and prosperous trading,
Joe
EURCHF Breakout and Potential retraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.96700 zone, EURCHF was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.96700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURCAD: Quick short opportunity + bonus for long term.EURCAD marginally turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.842, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 27.243) as it hit both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 today. That is dead neutral on a 15 month basis as the pair has been on a wide ranged price action since the start of 2023. Currently it sits exactly at the middle of this pattern on the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This gives us the opportunity for a quick short term sell on the HL trendline (TP = 1.45750). The HL trendline has always been crossed downwards these 1.5 years so if we see a crossing under the 0.618 Fibonacci, we will sell again and target the 0.786 Fib (TP = 1.43650).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Euro can make small movement down more and then start to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago entered to triangle, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line, which coincided with the 1.0885 resistance level with the seller zone and in a short time declined to support line of this pattern. After this movement, the price rebounded from this line and started to grow back to the resistance line of the triangle, and when EUR reached this line, and soon exited from the triangle. Then the price broke the 1.0885 level and rose a little higher, but quickly turned around and started to decline inside the downward channel. In the channel, the price broke one more time at 1.0885 level and later fell to the support line of the channel, after which it turned around and rebounded up. Euro exited from the downward channel and soon reached the 1.0885 level again, but at once turned around and made a strong downward impulse to the current resistance level, which coincided with the resistance area. After this, the price also broke this level too and at the moment it continues to decline. In my opinion, the Euro can make a small movement more, after which it turns around and rises to the 1.0700 resistance level, which is my target too. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD minor correction(4/12/2024)In our last analysis, EUR/USD FX:EURUSD finally reached our 1.07 target. Right now we believe a minor correction to 1.07 is possible.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
EURCAD is approaching a significant levelHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.46800 zone, EURCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.46800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Day PlanWe continue with the short order flow on the euro, and the context remains short as well. There are no significant signs of a reversal observed yet. For a change in sentiment on the primary timeframe, it is important for the price to establish itself above 1.0735. I don't expect any particularly clear movements for the day since the intraday target at PDL has been reached.
EURUSD 12 Apr 2024 W15 - Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Apr 2024 W15 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish / Continuation
INT Bearish
2.
Expectations are met for the INT Structure with the Bearish iBOS.
Currently price targeting the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price tapped the 4H Demand but as we are in Pro Swing/INT the reaction from this demand will be limited.
Price now in a bearish momentum targeting the Weak Swing Low.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
2.
Considered this as Swing due to the Bullish iBOS.
With the Swing bearish, expectations is set for bearish continuation.
This 15m Supply is the only clear supply for Shorts.
3.
Following the 4H Swing, expectation is set to continue bearish and the 15m Swing will hold bearish to fulfill the 4H Swing targets.
EURUSD is looking for better selling zoensHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08800 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Where EURUSD is heading in the upcoming week?After the cpi report yesterday the price has broken its somewhat pretty respectable support according to me and now it seems to be heading towards its daily support near 1.0675.
As I have marked the downtrend I think price might even go further down the weekly support but you never know what can happen in forex market so I will take my profits near weekly support areas and wait for a reversal or if the price continues to go further down then I will open a new trade.
HOW AM I SURE THAT IT IS A DOWN TREND?
I am sure becuase as you can see both of the times price bounced back from the golden level of FIB and when it first happend it made a lower low and now the second time when it bounced back from the golden fib level it has already made a new lower low.
EURUSD Outlook: Support Strength and Potential Upside MomentumAmidst the ever-fluctuating landscape of the foreign exchange market, the EURUSD pair has captured the attention of traders following a notable drop to 1.071 in response to recent economic developments. As I compose this article, the pair finds itself at a critical juncture, supported by a confluence of factors including strong technical support and contrasting economic data releases.
At present, the EURUSD pair has established a robust support level, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This convergence of technical indicators underscores the significance of this support area, potentially paving the way for a reversal in price dynamics.
Recent economic data releases have added complexity to the market narrative. The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month (m/m) report has exerted a negative impact on the US economy, suggesting potential inflationary pressures. Conversely, the Unemployment Claims data has painted a positive picture for the US labor market, indicating resilience and stability.
In light of these developments, our analysis suggests a compelling trading idea: a rebound from the support areas. Our viewpoint is anchored in the belief that the EURUSD pair is currently trading within a range-bound environment, presenting an opportunity for a bullish impulse towards higher levels.
However, it's essential to approach this trading idea with caution and meticulous planning. While technical indicators and economic data provide valuable insights, market sentiment and geopolitical factors can introduce unexpected volatility. Therefore, risk management is paramount in executing this trading strategy effectively.
EURUSD - Expecting Further DropRight now, the value of the Euro (EUR) compared to the US Dollar (USD) is low (around 1.0740) as per strong Dollar (USD) considering the following factors:
The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely keep interest rates the same this Thursday, but might consider lowering them in June.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) might wait longer to lower interest rates because the US economy is doing well and inflation is higher than expected.
This difference in interest rates between the ECB and Fed is making the EUR weaker.
Unexpectedly high inflation in the US in March caused people to believe the Fed won't lower rates as soon as they thought. This made the USD even stronger.
Investors are waiting to see what the ECB decides about interest rates later today and what other economic data comes out of the US.
Overall, our sentiment is still bearish, and we expect some pullback before seeing a further drop in EUR, please see the chart for details.
EURUSD - Bearish => Bullish 🎯Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 As per my last analysis , attached on the chart, EURUSD rejected the upper red circle zone and traded lower.
Currently, EURUSD is approaching the lower bound of the red wedge pattern.
Moreover, the $1.07 is a strong support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle with the blue arrow is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD 11 Apr 2024 W15 - Intraday Analysis - EU Rate / US PPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Apr 2024 W15 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish / Continuation
INT Bearish
2.
As price formed a Bearish CHoCH before the CPI news, it was a nice signal for INT Structure to continue bearish.
Expectations is set to target the Weak INT / Swing Lows.
3.
Price tapped the 4H Demand but as we are in Pro Swing/INT the reaction from this demand will be limited.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
CPI news had a solid push causing a bearish BOS.
No HP POI except the 4H Supply with a 15m nested within it.
IMO i've doubts that price will pullback to this supply.
Expectations is set to continue bearish to fulfill the 4H INT/Swing continuation phase.
3.
After a BOS, we expect a pullback.
Price is currently within the 4H Demand but no momentum.
CHoCH will be the first sign that Swing Pullback maybe starting but be mindful that we are not well positioned within the HTF structure.
Following the bearish move would be the optimum decision.
Potential bullish riseEUR/USD is currently on a support level which is an overlap support level and could reverse from this level to our take profit
Entry: 1.07274
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level
Stop loss: 1.06957
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take profit: 1.07767
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
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EUR/USD to slump again after ECB decision? The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June.
EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages.
Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal. The previous session's decline was the biggest single-day decline since March 2023, so it will be interesting to see if this bearishness has been exhausted.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged but perhaps point towards the start of its own rate cutting cycle in June. ECB officials have already begun discussing this timeline, so tomorrow’s announcement might lack the bite of a CPI print.
Instead, traders could look for clues on future ECB policy during Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the rate decision.