Setup #003 - EURUSD - LongWaiting for entry trigger. Must come between 10am-12pm ET today.
Confluences:
✅ Bullish overall bias
✅ Bulllish demand zone
✅ Bullish bat pattern
✅ Bullish divergence in price reversal zone
✅ Buillish break of structure
✅ Entering London close zone
✅ Break of structure confirmed
✅ Required risk:reward met
EUR
EURUSD 30 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB Rate / LagardeThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate.
Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration.
Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments.
Heavy Economic Reports today: Starting with EUR Unemployment, GDP, ECB Interest Rate / Lagarde Press Conference to US GDP and Core PCE.
Overall, the market sentiment reflects a blend of caution and anticipation as investors monitor the interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal initiatives.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price is currently mitigating the large 4H Demand zone but failing till now to do something significant (At least a Bullish CHoCH).
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Swing is continuing bearish with a new bearish BOS.
🔹After a BOS we expected a pullback which already reached the Swing Premium and mitigated the 15m / 4H supply zones.
🔹No clear INT structure within the Swing but the Fractal is currently bearish indicating the bearish swing pullback could be over and we are currently forming the Swing continuation phase to target the weak Swing Low.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue bearish (4H INT low to be broken) but to be cautious that we still within the 4H demand that is not fully mitigated.
Falling towards pullback support?EUR/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 160.30
1st Support: 159.29
1st Resistance: 161.79
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/CAD is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the overlap support.
Pivot: 1.50485
1st Support: 1.49224
1st Resistance: 1.51355
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD Death Cross (1h) giving a sell signal.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down pattern and is about to form a Death Cross on the (1h) time frame.
All recent Death Cross formations resulted in a Lower Low.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.03500 (bottom of Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) has formed the very same Lower Lows pattern as during all those previous Death Crosses.
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Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0455
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0520
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 1.0345
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Euro can correct to support area and then continue to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price started to decline inside the downward channel, where it first rebounded from the support area, which coincided with the current support level and rose to the resistance line of the channel. Then the price turned around and in a short time fell to the support area, breaking the 1.0485 level and then fell to the support line of the channel. Next, the price bounced up and almost rose to the support area, and after this, it turned around and dropped to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and support line of the channel. Price made impulse up to the resistance line and then declined lower than the 1.0255 level, breaking it, but later started to grow near the support line. So, in a short time, the Euro broke the 1.0255 level one more time, exiting from the channel and continuing to move up next near the support line. Soon, it reached the current support level and broke it, after which made a retest and now still rising. For this case, I think that the Euro can fall to the support area, where it touches the support line, and then continue to move up. That's why I set my TP at 1.0620 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
How I trade ICT ConceptsIn this video I attempt to explain how I trade using ICT Concepts. In my opinion it is a bit different to how most people use the concepts, or perhaps how even Michael uses them, but I find it very reliable in terms of determining where price is in the PD Array Matrix.
I hope it this demonstration is insightful and thank you for watching.
- R2F Trading
EURUSD - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The EURUSD currency pair is located above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. Maintaining the drawn ascending channel will lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the channel ceiling. A correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with its next opportunity to buy it.
Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have sparked concerns among European companies. A report by Bank of America (BofA) highlights dozens of European firms that are vulnerable to these tariffs due to their supply chain dependencies and revenue exposure.
Among these companies, the Italian automaker Stellantis stands out. According to the report, Stellantis operates 16 supply chain links in Canada and derives 47% of its total revenue from North America. Similarly, the German auto giant BMW has 18 supply chain links in Canada and generates 26% of its revenue from the United States.
In the energy sector, the UK-based utility company National Grid, with a market value of €58 billion, has a significant presence in the U.S., where 50% of its assets and 54% of its revenue originate. Although its tangible supply chain exposure in Mexico and Canada is relatively low, its extensive operations in the U.S. make it highly susceptible to the negative impacts of these tariffs.
Eurozone Bank Lending Survey – January 2025:
• Credit Standards: In Q4 2024, corporate credit standards tightened due to rising perceived risks and reduced risk tolerance.
• Mortgage Loans: Credit standards for household mortgages remained unchanged, but lending conditions for consumer credit tightened further.
• Loan Demand: Mortgage loan demand surged significantly, while corporate loan demand remained weak.
According to analysts at Standard Chartered, financial markets are currently overly focused on Donald Trump’s economic policies, potentially overlooking the risks associated with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision today following a two-day meeting. It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain within the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, investors are keen to find clues regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Based on market pricing, expectations suggest a 40-basis-point rate cut by December.
A key unknown factor influencing this outlook is Donald Trump’s policies. He has recently called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Additionally, his tariff policies, which include imposing high tariffs on both allies and competitors, could further drive inflationary pressures.
As a result, the Fed may proceed cautiously with its rate-cut cycle. However, Trump’s administration has not yet implemented widespread tariffs, though he has threatened to do so.
Meanwhile, some Fed officials have recently signaled a more hawkish stance. There is also speculation that the Fed may seek to assert its independence at the beginning of Trump’s new presidential term by resisting his demands. If the Fed takes such a position, Trump may respond aggressively, which could further heighten market uncertainty.
Bearish drop?EUR/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that line s up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 162.29
1st Support: 160.58
1st Resistance: 163.69
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/GBP is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.83719
1st Support: 0.83258
1st Resistance: 0.84121
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Pullback resistance ahead?EUR/CAD is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the overlap support.
Pivot: 1.50485
1st Support: 1.49229
1st Resistance: 1.51335
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 29 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Interest Rate / PowellThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Tariff Discussions Continue: Still the main factor currently that effects the market and supporting USD with Trump insistence to apply Tariffs Plan.
Powell Press Conference: Today Rate decision is already priced in but the market is waiting for Powell press conference to give clues on what will be the Fed plan with Trump's recent announcements as on one hand, he has expressed a strong commitment to reducing inflation; on the other, his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1, 2025, are anticipated to exert upward pressure on prices.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone.
🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected, currently INT structure is bearish and mitigating the 4H Demand.
🔹Price currently at the extreme of the Bearish INT structure and there is a HP that the Strong INT High could be taken out in order to facilitate the 15m Bearish Swing Pullback Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set neutral due to the following:
US Interest Rate decision and Powell Press Conference.
We are currently within the 4H demand and it’s tough to follow the 15m Bearish INT Structure and Short.
Not yet Bullish iBOS to indicate that the 15m Swing Pullback is starting.
EURUSD 4hour Channel Up starting new rallyEURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up on the 4hour time frame.
Its latest bearish wave found support on the 4hour MA50, following the formation of a Golden Cross.
We expect a new technical rally to start of at least +1.59%, same as the last rise.
Target 1.05750.
Previous chart:
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Falling wards 61.8% Fibonacci support?EUR/CHF is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.9408
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.9355
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.9459
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD 28 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Durable Goods & ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Tariff Discussions Continue: President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant focused on tariff policies in their recent statements.
Bessant's Proposal: Bessant suggested a universal tariff starting at 2.5%, with a gradual monthly increase of 2.5%, potentially reaching up to 20%.
Trump's Tariff Plans: President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceutical producers, and industries like steel, aluminum, and copper.
Trump's Push for Higher Tariffs: Trump expressed a desire for tariffs significantly higher than 2.5%, contradicting Bessant's proposal. This added further uncertainty to the market.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone.
🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected during the session today as we are mitigating the 4H Demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set to continue bearish to facilitate the 4H Swing pullback and Daily Bearish continuation.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0441
1st Support: 1.0372
1st Resistance: 1.0535
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 1D MA50 break-out after 4 months. Major bullish signal.The EURUSD pair broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 4 months (since October 03 2024). This is a major bullish signal as not only does it stop the downtrend that started on the September 25 2024 High but it resembles the post bottom rally of the November 02 2023 and March 21 2023 1D MA50 break-outs.
The 1D RSI sequences between those fractals are identical and both previous bullish break-outs hit at least their 0.681 Fibonacci retracement levels. That is currently where the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is trending towards, which is the major multi-year Resistance and a valid target and sell entry for swing traders.
The current rebound however faces for the first time in years a bearish trending 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), so our Target has to be on it and not exceed it. We are aiming for 1.07500.
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EURGBP - Euro is recovering!?The EURGBP pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. The pair’s continued rise towards the supply zone will provide a selling position with a good risk-reward ratio. In case of a downside correction, we can buy in the demand zone.
The Eurozone composite PMI rose from 49.6 to 50.2. Although this figure exceeds expectations, it still reflects a stagnant economy with the manufacturing sector in recession. While price pressures are once again on the rise, it appears that weak growth remains the primary concern, as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for further interest rate cuts.
In the manufacturing sector, the production index increased from 44.3 to 46.8, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the services sector, which remains the main driver of growth, saw a slight dip in business activity PMI from 51.6 to 51.4. Overall, the Eurozone economy appears to be hovering near stagnation.
Economic growth continues to face challenges due to weak international demand. Export orders are still declining, and with U.S. tariffs on Eurozone manufacturing rising again, the outlook remains bleak. Interestingly, however, optimism among manufacturers improved in January, suggesting businesses are counting on growth recovery throughout the year. We believe this expectation is reasonable but mainly driven by stronger domestic demand.
The ECB has been gradually lowering interest rates since June 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025.
ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated this gradual approach during the Davos summit this week. However, some investors are hoping for a 0.5% rate cut in January’s meeting. This scenario, though, seems unlikely, as inflation in the services sector remains around 4%, and wage growth has reached its highest level in three decades.
At the same time, concerns about the Eurozone’s economic growth have increased due to political unrest in France and Germany, declining exports linked to China’s weak economy, and the potential for new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the situation is not severe enough to prompt the ECB to accelerate rate cuts. The ECB is expected to lower rates by 0.25% in Thursday’s meeting, with Lagarde likely sticking to her recent policy stance.
Investors will be watching closely for new clues about any disagreements within the ECB’s Governing Council and policymakers’ views on the neutral rate. If Lagarde does not rule out the possibility of more aggressive rate cuts in the future, the euro could face downward pressure. A larger potential risk lies in new developments on the tariff front, especially if Trump makes statements about imposing trade restrictions on the EU. Additionally, Thursday’s initial GDP estimate for Q4 2024 in the Eurozone could trigger market reactions. These figures could significantly influence market expectations and the euro’s trajectory.
Could the Fiber bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0451
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0391
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0535
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD 27 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - EU Lagarde / US Home SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Tariffs will remain a key driver of market volatility, heavily influenced by Trump's shifting tone. While the market initially welcomed a "risk-off" sentiment following his announcement of a modest 10% tariff on China—interpreted as avoiding a full-blown trade war—Trump has since shaken markets by imposing a 25% tariff on Colombia. There are also rumors circulating that similar measures could target Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday, February 1.
Tariffs are likely to be the primary market mover for the foreseeable future, so it's essential to stay vigilant and mindful of potential rumors. Trump’s unpredictability isn’t going anywhere 😁—adapt accordingly!
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity.
🔹With today market open, price created a Bearish CHoCH to initiate the INT Structure Pullback.
🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹After the Bullish iBOS we expect a Swing Pullback, INT structure turned bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback.
🔹With the bearish iBOS, a pullback is expected during the session today.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set to bearish to facilitate the Swing pullback to at least the Swing EQ/4H-Daily demand zone which is well positioned in Swing Discount.
I’m looking for:
🔹Shorts from the INT structure Supply Zone positioned within the 4H Supply Zone only if we didn’t mitigate the 4H Demand.
🔹Longs from the 15m Demand within the 4H Demand zone for the 15m Bullish Swing and 4H Bullish INT Structure continuation.
EURUSD 26/01/2025EU this week giving us the bullish bias that we carried over from the Tuesday morning bias change. of course Orion told us as soon as the bias changed and we stayed on its tall the whole way to its current position. as it stands we are looking for longs into the target highs we have marked on our chart, but of course without a pullback we expect price to keep running and hit our targets . if we do carry the bullish move to our targets without hitting an entry low we will look for a new low to be created to then trade up into the highs once again. but our plan currently is the lows to be ran and the current targets remain in place giving us a strong target high to aim for.
Trade safe stick to your plan and always follow Orion!