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Eur_usd

EURUSD: 5 min chart offers possible entries for a bigger bounceone could either buy the breakout/Close above the days high (1.3215) as a Stop could be placed relatively narrow or in case of another pullback, there is a nice Gartley in the 5 Minute Chart which could offer a Chance to buy before the Thing possibly takes off for a nice bounce. so 2 valid entries with a stop 10 pips below the days low and the potential of a relatively big move, (maybe up to 1.3340) in relation to the risk I like the narrow range of the Euro after all These Drops to the current Level. The bigger Picture also supports the idea of a bounce
Long
by WendelinProbst
4
EURUSD Bullish Reversal Potential at Long Term SupportNow that the EURUSD has thrusted down out of the bearish triangle pattern, prices have fallen to the profit target and are near the Monthly S1 support level. Also, scroll out to a daily chart on the EURUSD (not shown). The November 7, 2013 daily candle drafted a very large wick to the downside which is another level of support near 1.33. What makes the bullish reversal interesting is that this move lower in the EURUSD has also occurred on slowing momentum evidenced through the CCI. So we have bullish CCI divergence appearing at a monthly support level. This offers us a good chance at a good risk to reward ratio trade. A meaningful break below monthly S1 at 1.3270 suggests the EURUSD may accelerate to the downside.
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
EURUSD bird eye viewHi people, It's been a while since I was here last. I like the look of the place and plan to stick around for a bit. Right..A fairly rudementary analysis to start with. We have a EURUSD monthly chart here going back all the way to the beginning! Given that the fundamentals are stacked heavily against EUR, I am expectting some weakness to materialize in this pair for EUR. The chart serves as a map. The pattern holds up nicely along the top declining resistance line and the pair has taken out the bottom short term support. I would expect this to go down till 1.2800 at least where there is a reasonable support for short term at least, Next, we try to see if we can fine tune this trade idea using shorter periodicity charts.
Short
by Kaustubh
Is EUR/USD turning bullishI'm long this one as price seems a long way from its equilibrium on the daily charts so I expect some form of mean reversion back towards the Kijun line at around 1.3523 but the first target would be somewhere around the 1.3440 (the underside of the kumo on the 4 hour chart. On this time frame specifically I have traded a set-up which is a form of a weak Tenken/Kijun cross which uses the ATR value as a tool for both first target and stop losses. It is designed to bag some early pips in what could be a major swing, with the second lot left to run with the SAR as a trailing stop.
Long
by DTFXTrading
Monday 7th July: EURUSD Weekly technical outlook and review.The weekly timeframe still shows buyers and sellers battling it out within weekly demand at 1.34760-1.36314, while on the daily timeframe price still remains capped between daily demand at 1.34760-1.35265 and daily supply above at 1.37297-1.36879. The 4hr timeframe shows sellers broke the round number 1.36000 early Friday, with price being seen retesting it late Friday confirming it as temporary resistance. Price will likely see a push to the downside testing the low 1.35746, where a decision will need to be made! If we see a positive break below this low we could see price drop down to 4hr demand at 1.35018-1.35375 where we have a P.A confirmation buy order set at 1.35417. Areas to watch for buy orders: After P.A.Confirmation: 1.35417 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). Areas to watch for sell orders: After P.A.Confirmation: 1.36894 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
by ICmarkets
General Market Outlook - June 21st, 2014Note: I got rid of NZD/USD and USD/CHF. NZD/USD pretty much correlates with AUD/USD while USD/CHF correlates with EUR/USD, so I figured it was redundant to analyze both pairs. ------------------------------------------------- Interesting Pairs: AUD/USD - Bearish - Price tested the broken trend line last week and bounced down - Price retested the same price level this week and started to bounce down - Personally, I wouldn't short now because it would effectively be chasing. It dropped about 50 pips so far, so you would need a wide stop to enter this trade now. - Maybe if it retraced to 0.94, I would consider it but AUD/USD isn't high on my "to trade" list right now. GBP/USD - Bearish - Although not a perfect butterfly (aka bearish gartley), price did bounce off the 161.8% fib level this week around 1.705X - Since price closed above the 1.7000 level on Friday, I expect bulls to have another push towards 1.705X or even 1.71. - So if you missed the entry at 1.705X (like I did), don't worry, you 'should' get another chance - Although the level of interest is at 1.705X, I'd prefer loading the majority of my short position closer to the 1.71 level if we get there. USD/CAD - Bullish - Price broke out of the descending triangle on Friday (magenta) but this bear run looks exhausted, USD/CAD has been dropping for most of the last 3 weeks already. - Currently price is sitting at the 1.075X level, which happens to be where the (blue) trend line is, so loading a few longs here wouldn't be a bad idea. - However, the level that I'm interested in is the 1.07 level, which is where the (red) trend line intersects with a previously broken resistance level. XAG/USD - Bearish - Price broke the blue descending trend line this week and surged upwards but until we break 21, I have doubts about this bull run. - Take a look at the red descending trend line, price fell around $23 the first time and $22 the second time, what are the odds the price will fall around $21 this time? - Each time price has dropped in the past, it went all the way down to the support level at $18.6X. - I'm not saying it's going to drop back down to support again this time but at the very least, I expect a retrace back down to the $20 level to test the broken trend line. After that, who knows? ------------------------------------------------- Developing Pairs: USD/JPY - Waiting for breakout - The only thing that I can see right now is a symmetrical triangle, which is a neutral pattern formation until it breaks out - So until it does, I'm sitting on the sidelines for this pair ------------------------------------------------- Confusing Pairs: EUR/USD - Conflicting short and long term views Long term - I see a potential bearish flag on the chart, which signals continuation drop is coming? Short term - A retrace wouldn't be out of the question for a healthy bear run but it would have to break the bear flag in order to do so, which conflicts with the long term view. Also, price never hit 1.4000 so that's a bull target that was never reached. ------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.
by ForexWeeklyAnalysis
1
Wedge & Predictive/Forecast Model Interplay | $EUR $AUD #ForexFriends, A very quick note here highlighting both a long-term pattern development found in a wedge, which I have overlaid over the results of my predictive/forecasting model, whose targets are defined as: 1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14 and 2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14. With ECB decisions coming up tomorrow (05 JUN 2014), the Forex community may or may not have priced the outcome already - I personally tend to think that institutional traders would tend to position price to dampen losses against any surprise while maximizing on strategic positions. In the case of this pattern, I would say that dwelling at the upper portion of the pattern (i.e.: keeping price close to the upper border) does just that: It positions price against any unlikely upward surprise (i.e.: current rate is at 0.25%, while forecast/consensus is at 0.10%, thus likely to pull $EUR downwards) - But then again, this is all guess work, and this is the last thing I need. Instead, I like solid, reliable data for my forecast. PATTERN ANALYSIS: The pattern that stands in the background can be defined as either a Bearish Cypher or Bearish Shark. You will see that the least probable of the forecast level (i.e.: TG-1= 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14) comes into perfect alignment with what would complete as a Cypher, such that Points XA would project at 0.786-Fib ~ 1.43744, whereas a Shark would seek a deeper point of completion, which is not quite well aligned with the lower TG-Lo = 1.40384, considering that a Bullish Shark would seek 1.131 x zero-A position as its outer most completion at Point-C (as you may recall, the Shark is only a "quasi-pattern", incomplete by a one-off system, which starts its count at Point-zero, then moves on to complete at Point-C. This is so because the Shark pattern is the introducing feature of the 5-0 pattern, which completes at 50% of the recent Shark B-C impulse - Consult Scott Carney's Harmonic Trading books and website for more information on this). Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ------------------ Twitter: @4xForecaster ------------------
by 4xForecaster
1
EURUSD: BIG Picture with QE1+QE2+QE3 input. without ECB LTRO Sometimes, we do forget to focus on the forest and therefore on on big picutre, because we are stuck focusing on one tree. On the big picture, we see 3 inputs, which are QE1+QE2+QE3 and there effect on the market, the relaunch of it, the ending period and the effect on EURUSD. With the end of QE3, baring in mind that FED President Yellen is still keeping the schedule of tappering, will there be a natural decrease of EUR against USD? Does ECB really need to decrease the interest rate to 0 or bellow in order to push EUR to loose value against USD? Or will it come naturally? Bare in mind that so far ECB made a lot of statement, but no action. Perhaps ECB is waiting for the end of the EP elections, or ECB President will take a stance of FED. Let's wait and see.
by Pashabxl
EURUSD It is Ok to change your MindOn Daily chart it is is in uptrend since July 2013. After big, ignited, red candle on 20th of March it entered into range-bound market and bounced up well off major trend line. Till now it built series of lower high and higher lows (wedge) and gave opportunities to trade both sides (selling from wedge highs and buying support). On Friday when US job report was released it accelerated to downside with quick reversal. I mentioned in comments: "Reagined some levels of support and building nice upper-level base in front of resistance. We can see break up of those highs and expect some upside follow through then. Entry point: 1.38800 Stop: 1.38680 then 1.38634" Now, i will measure this move with fibonacci levels (the higher it will hold the higher is probability that it will continue higher) and moving averages. It is impoprtant to make adjustments and to know key levels. Trade price action not opinion.
by andrew.berg
5
Fundamentals Looking Long | $NZD $USD $EUR $JPY #forexFriends, TRADE PROFILE: Only three days ago, I took the opportunity of a long entry based on a daily chart which confirmed support near the 87.350 level. A layered analysis comprising my prop predictive analysis and forecasting favored a bull directional bias with a series of bullish targets of moderate-probability quality. Despite being a technical analyst, I like to make sure that the "real world" foundation upon which I build my analyses remains solid and reliable for the future before using turning to abstract methodologies that define my predictive analysis and forecasting system - much like a painter has to ensure the quality of the canvas before turning to its interpretive sense of the landscape. For this exercise, I like to turn to what central banks are currently thinking or are likely to do in the weeks or months ahead. My sources are simply central bank news outlet, easily reference my mere Google queries. So, let's see what the fundamental data reveals of each of these currencies, before we turn to the technical analysis that led me to take a long position and caused me to pin overhead resistance and forecast levels. In essence, I am walking you, TradingView trader, through the step-wise analysis in which I engage. In real time terms, it might take me about 20 minutes to establish a bias through fundamentals and technical analysis, then a bout 2-3 minutes to check the charts once or twice a day. Let's delve into the fundamental then technical analyses. FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND ITS EFFECT ON PRICE IN THE CHART: At best, for the NZDJPY trade to move in our forecast direction, significant fundamental data would need to mobilize each currencies of the chart, such that NZD moves up through propelling fundamental forces of a bullish nature, while JPY moves through opposite fundamental forces of a bearish nature. At worse, each currencies would bathe in a neutral fundamental environment, while NZD would confer a bullish move, or inversely, JPY would react to a bearish move, each resulting in a net bullish move. So, let's look at the fundamental news affecting each of these majors. NZD FUNDAMENTAL DATA: Regarding the NZD fundamental outlook, this commodity-based economy has reacted to both a significant decline in dairy pricing, yet another incremental rise in its RBNZ rate hike on April 24th, 2014. This would represent a second rate hike for the year, while central bank commentaries have hinted at a "85% chance of another rate hike in both June and July. WHAT NZD SHOWS IN THE CHART: While the market for milk should pressure NZD downwards, central banks have continued to pull on the rate hiking level, this forcing NZD upwards, causing a net bullish force behind the WEEKLY green candle - See how the green candle also retraced to regain the loss incurred by its preceding three bearish candles, and how it is currently preparing to end this week right at the level of the forth prior candle's close. JPY FUNDAMENTAL DATA: ECB Kuroda's statement could not be any more explicit: ""The bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2%" Indeed, Japan is on track toward 2% inflation with a March 2014 inflation rate of 1.61% - a target that is believe to be reached in 2015 or 2016. Here, the fundamental data supports a deliberate bearish pressure on the Yen. ... (cont'd in the commentary body - This is a live input, so give it time) ... David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting PS: ALL of my predictive analyses (basic and prop patterns, occult geometries, directional interpretation and reversal point determination) and forecasting methodology uses TradingView's panoply of charting tools. The charts I post are the product of use of TradingView's broad spectrum of technical tools and fundamental reference, which remains attainable to all prospective minds. That means you. - David Alcindor
Long
by 4xForecaster
2
EUR/USD breakout failure Daily chart still in major uptrend but it is more range bound market, so it makes sence to trade tactically both sides. After it failed above resistance zone pair established downtrend. Broke below previous low of the day means that sellers are interested in lower prices. Significant support zone 1.38509-550 where i can take some off from my short position, below that i expect to see some follow through continuation. Will measure price action. Stops above previous low of the day which today act like resistance at 1.38640ish.
Short
by andrew.berg
1
Talk is cheap - buy the EuroDespite continuous effort from various ECB members to talk it lower, the Euro remains strong. This led ECB President Draghi to state over the weekend that “the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy further if the euro keeps strengthening”. EUR/USD gapped 50 pips lower on the open as a result of this, but is now back above 1.3850. Traders have been ignoring comments from ECB officials and it’s hard to see why that should change now. The market is sending a clear message: talk is cheap, the ECB needs to act! I expect the EUR/USD to fill the gap and break again above the 1.39 level ahead of Wednesday's CPI release. In the cross pairs, keep an eye on EUR/CAD as we have the Bank of Canada meeting this week.
Long
by Milan
1