EURAUD Weekly Forex Forecast 1st October to 6th OctoberMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 1.6355, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 1.6040 breaks.
If the resistance at 1.6355 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
The RSI uptrend #1 is broken, so the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 48.
Euraud-analysis
Weekly Analysis on Euro / Australian Dollar: Week 2DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
So it's been a long time since I publish anything. But this is a new year and with that comes new goals and new purposes in life. One of my goals is to trade more, to earn back my initial investment in my account and try to at least get some chump change from all this. I had been sticking to one pair which was GBPJPY, and it has worked great for me. But I wanted to deal with a different pair and get familiar with it. I saw some great structure and trends with this pair the Euro and Australian Dollar, and let me tell you it has not been a disappointing week.
So lets get started here with this analysis. I was able to pinpoint movements this week, so lets see if we can get something going this coming week.
Weekly:
Alright so we have here the big picture where we have a support and resistance areas (shown by the arrows).
Daily:
Alright so we have first of all an ascending wedge which we saw break out on October 26th leading to a higher high on December 1st, right at our 1.57321 level.
We then see that the resistance level is rejected and prices drops to break the ascending trendline. But the price has gone back to touch the ascending trendline as expected (I took a trade last night that resulted in profit because of it).
4 Hour:
Alright, so on the 4hr chart is where I based all my trading for this past week. I have drawn a descending trendline, and I took advantage of each time. On our last day of trading this week the price broke that descending trendline and tapped the bigger ascending trendline.
So I believe that the price could move higher next week. Perhaps a big gap at opening bell on Monday. I have support and resistance lines drawn out and will be keeping an eye out on this one.
BUTTERFLY BULL |H4| LONG & SHORTEURAUD is bullish on H1, H4, Daily, and Monthly charts. We have a bullish butterfly formation but remember to look into the fundamentals for better decision on your entry choice.
Fundamentals to consider on EURO include; Services PMI and Composite PMI for Eurozone, Italy, France and Germany. Also Eurozone Retail Sales.
Fundamentals to consider on AUD include: Australian CBA Services PMI and CBA Composite PMI, Australian AiG Performance of Services Index, Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index, Australian Current Account Balance, Australian Retail Sales, Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision.
Good Luck.
Looking to Long EURAUD at Fibo Retracement 61.8Euro dropped last week due to ECB extension of bond purchasing and Spain-Catalonia political uncertainties. Nevertheless, Aussie also dived significantly last week due to weak inflation data.
Based on technical analysis, EURAUD is testing the impulse leg fibo R 61.8. Currently the market is in range and is waiting for more signal to dive lower or reverse. If on H1 it breaks and closed above 1.5137 I will looking for long opportunity, and if it breaks and closed below the 61.8 level, this analysis will be invalid.
The reward to risk for this is 4:1
EURAUD Bulls Fail to Hold New Support at 1.4090I haven’t commented on the EURAUD for quite some time. It isn’t a cross I usually trade, and toward the end of last year, the price action had become far too choppy for my liking.
However, the past 48 hours of activity have caught my attention. On Friday, buyers managed to close the week above the 1.4090 handle. This level has been a key factor for the Euro cross since November of last year.
The level is also the 50% retracement when measuring from the 2012 low at 1.1605 to the 2015 high near 1.6590.
But a failure to find a bid at this level during yesterday’s retest has raised concern over the validity of Friday’s breakout. On top of that, yesterday’s move carved out a bearish engulfing day.
There is a chance the key level is a bit lower than 1.4090 based on some of the lower wicks from November and January. As such, I want to see how the pair responds to a retest of the area as resistance before considering an entry.
If we move down to the 4-hour time frame, we can see what triggered the recent decline. It appears we have an ascending channel developing off the current 2017 low. The resistance level that capped yesterday’s advance extends from the February 17th high.
From here any retest of 1.4090 will likely encounter selling pressure. There is some support at 1.4050, but a close below that would expose channel support near 1.3900.
Check the upside technical analysis.
Performed by analytical expert: Urban Stamcar