Get started

EURAUD

EURUAD I Detailed analysis ahead of AUD Cash Rate ReportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
by BKTradingAcademy
2
RBA meeting preview – transitioning away from a tightening bias Time: Tuesday at 14:30 AEDT With the Fed, ECB and BoE now having offered their guidance on policy and all largely pushing back on the pricing of imminent cuts, it’s the RBA who steps up as a risk event for traders on Tuesday. Like the aforementioned central banks, the timing and the extent of RBA rate cuts are the subject of much debate among local market participants - all with fairly strong and dispersed views on when the first cut plays out. What is more important to drive the reaction in the AUD or AUS200 are market expectations and what is being priced. The best way to measure these expectations is through the Aus 30-day interest rate futures, and these are the first derivative by which other markets (such as the AUD) will react to. As we from the table the central view from rates traders is there is very little chance of a 25bp cut at this meeting or the March meeting. The May RBA meeting is considered to be ‘live’ and while this pricing will move dynamically with supply and demand from market participants, there is currently a 56% probability of easing here, with June almost fully priced for a cut. I sit more in the June camp myself. By December ‘24 the market is torn between two or three 25bp cuts, with 64bp of easing priced. Another factor is the pricing of the trough in the cash rate, as this offers a sense of where the collective sees a neutral setting. Here we can look at the forward rates market and see this currently set between 3.50% and 3.25% in 2 years’ time. A 3.5% floor in the cash rate would be conditional on the economy avoiding a recession, where a recessionary environment would require a more accommodative stance and the cash rate likely pulled below 2%. The reaction in the AUD While the RBA won't cut the cash rate at this meeting, the reaction in markets will come from the tone of the RBA statement and any change in the wording that gives a sense of whether there is any appetite to ease from May or June. While cumulative pricing in Aussie rates is certainly nowhere near as aggressive as what we see in the tradable US or EUR interest rate markets, if the market sees no tangible evidence the bank is prepared to cut then May rate cut pricing will be pared back and the AUD should spike higher. Positioning, specifically from fast money leverage funds (e.g. hedge funds), will also play a critical role in the extent of the move to the tone of the statement, and flow reports from investment banks suggest these players running a sizeable AUD short position, albeit not at extreme levels. Given the trend in both headline and core inflation, along with subdued growth and stalling house price momentum, the RBA will almost certainly lose its hawkish bias in the meeting statement. However, they will likely be non-committal and adopt a clear wait-and-see bias. This should loosely put a cut on the table as early as May, but it will be highly conditional on the outcome of the following data points: Wage price index (21 Feb), monthly CPI reports (28 Feb, 27 March), Q1 CPI (24 April), employment reports (15 Feb, 21 March, 18 April) and Q4 GDP (6 March). Certainly, the Q1 CPI is the marquee data point that could decide a May cut, and the RBA would want to see inflation falling below 3.5%. The RBA would also require an unemployment rate above 4% (currently 3.9%) and trending higher to ease. A big day for the AUD It's worth considering that as well as the RBA statement we get the SoMP (Statement on Monetary policy) at the same time, and there will likely be changes to the bank's economic projections – that could put the market on notice. Also, an hour later (15:30 AEDT) RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference – this will be important for traders to react to. Gov Bullock will be probed on the broad appetite to cut and once again the reaction in the AUD and AUS200 will be driven by nuance and her urgency to normalize relative to the rates pricing. In theory, the meeting should be a low-volatility affair, with the bank moving to a more neutral setting and welcoming the moves lower in inflation but refraining from saying their work is done. It is still an obvious risk though for AUD exposures, so do consider position sizing over the event and consider where you see the skew in risk. As we move into the meeting AUDUSD is tracking a range of 0.6625 to 0.6550 – a break of this range could be quite powerful. Sentiment towards global risk assets is a contributing factor but as I say, around the meeting how the RBA are seeing things relative to market pricing will likely be the driving factor.
by Pepperstone
EURAUD Is Very Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for EURAUD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.640. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.651 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
EURAUD - BOOM! 450pip Target Hit! What's Next?In our last analysis we identified a perfect breakout trade. We explained exactly how to enter - both risk entry and safe entry depending on your appetite. Setup played out perfectly resulting in a massive 450pip gain! What we now have is a typical correction before the next breakout. We could create a complex abc correction so if looking to trade the next breakout, just be wary that we may reject the recent highs and then come down once again to complete the complex correction. Trade Idea: - Watch for the next breakout - Risk entry on bounce off fib levels - Safe entry on break of the red trendline - Target the recent highs as first targets and breakeven (350pips), longer term target 1.7 (700pips) Goodluck and as always, trade safe! See our previous setup below.
by WicktatorFX
GBPAUD Short Signal Reversal StrategyHi guys, its your girl forex potatoe and its another week of opportunities. January as been a pretty slow month for swing traders but here we have an opportunity to short GBPAUD, i am just took a short on this trade with my stop loss and take profit in appropriate places as with my tool. GBPAUD has been in an uptrend and has encountered a solid resistance and its having problems going through it, this is the third time that its showing signs of weakness and we all know how third strong third touches can be. In addition to that we can see the Daily RSI is overbought and just crossed the 70% mark, a head and shoulders pattern together with a bearish engulfing candle stick are confluences that supported my sell decision I am expecting GBPAUD to drop from this resistance and reverse all the way down. Kindly hit the boost , leave a follow and let me know what you think of this idea in the comment section
Short
by ForexPotatoe
EURAUD 4 HR | Bearish ContinuationGBPAUD could fall 225 pips if it can stay below 1.65699. Why 1.65699? Let's just round it and say $1.657 Australian dollar. The price for the EURO is decreasing which means Australians are able to buy the Euro at a cheaper price. Evidence High(H) & Low(L) Per the 4 our timeframe, price is declining. The current falling price of the Euro price per the Australian Dollar has been 1.65700(H), 1.62723(L), 1.65699(H), 1.64281(L). We can see the high and low prices are decreasing hence what is called LOWER LOWs and LOWER HIGHs. Actions The best action to take is to sell since currently the trend is down. That is what the chart per this timeframe is showing. The best price to sell below as stated above is 1.65699. The entry price is between 1.65350 and 1.65699. This range equates to 35 pips. This means if you enter at market order, you can wait for price to enter the range and provide evidence price can decrease. Or, if you set a pending order , you can set a pending order at 1.65350 with a TP down to the low or further. Why do I believe price can fall 225 pips? This is a Reward to risk drop from the pending order price of 1.65350 based on my stop loss placement. Sidenote: Your Reward to Risk will vary from mine analyzing this trade using your own risk management strategy and trading plan. What can invalidate this trade? If price pushes higher than 1.65699, showing evidence buyers have taken control, the trade in invalidated. What would this mean? If you entered the trade and price went higher than 1.65699 you'd be stopped out. However, if price were to continue lower without pushing past the highs, you'd be in profit. Should you trade this? If this fits how you trade, yes. If not no. Let's keep it that simple. I hope you enjoyed this analysis. Like this post and share it if you did.😁 Many blessings, Shaquan
Short
by ShaquanLopez
2