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EURAUD

EUR/AUD Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers , Please, find my technical outlook for EUR/AUD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.68197 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.67122 My Stop Loss - 1.68805 About Used Indicators: The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURAUD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Short
by ShahedZare
A Traders’ Playbook – backing a horse called Dollar The USD reigned supreme in G10 FX last week, and unless we see a far better feel towards China this week then I see the probability skewed for further USD gains. USDCNH remains central to the positive USD bias, and despite the best efforts of the PBoC to push back on the yuan weakness the daily chart is a thing of beauty – perhaps the better way to think about price is to question how high USDCNH would be if the PBoC hadn’t been ‘fixing’ the yuan at stronger levels each day, and Chinese state banks weren’t selling USDs. With the China proxies in the doghouse, we see NZD and AUD finding few friends, although we may see a few lightening up on shorts into the RBNZ meeting. I stay biased long EURAUD, although understand sentiment towards China is shot to pieces -this week's high-frequency China data may only need a small beat to cause a strong upside reaction in China proxies. USDJPY eyes a retest of the 145.07 highs and the manner by which US Treasuries are trading, both on a nominal and real basis, it's hard to fade the upside in USDJPY, although we may run into JPY intervention headlines this coming week. With a focus on bond markets, it's hard to go past moves in the UK bond market, where the 10yr gilt is above 4.5% and eyeing recent highs of 4.71%. We see 2- and 5-year UK gilt yields moving higher vs US Treasuries, and this is offering some support to the GBP. We continue to watch this dynamic with UK wages and CPI due this week. The preference remains to cast the net towards the crosses, where GBPAUD, GBPNZD or GBPJPY have been solid plays and will need to big downside UK core CPI print to halt the bullish trends. With China joining the UK as a central focus this week, we see big underperformance in the HK50, CHINAH and CN50. With China new yuan loans printing a 14-year low last week and renewed concerns on property developers, the Chinese authorities need to get in front of economics and sentiment. The market wants bold action, and anything less will attract sellers. I like the CHINAH index into 6200, but realise sentiment is shot and we also have Tencent reporting this week. Elsewhere, given views on US real rates, the USD as well as the general flow, I stay negative on gold and silver, but see modest upside risks in energy. We watch price action in broad large-cap tech and the A.I plays where we’re seeing dicey moves and real vulnerability emerge, and this could be a big theme that has to be on all trader's radars. The mega-cap tech/AI trade is one crowded position that if even modestly unwound could have big ramifications for risk. The 50-day MA on the US500 (4448) needs to hold this week, and a close below this average may hold big implications for market structure. While monthly options expiry could be price action, we watch to see if we see a move higher in volatility and our trading environment. The Risk Manager; navigating the marquee data/central bank meetings • China high-frequency economic data (all due 15 Aug 12:00 AEST) – After the recent weak trade and credit data, and a big push higher in USDCNH, we watch the monthly high-frequency economic data. Here, the market looks for industrial production to grow at 4.3% YoY, retail sales at 4.2% YoY and fixed asset investment at 3.8% YoY. The market is craving stimulus on both a fiscal level, backed by new monetary policy easing. Will bad economic data result in upside for Chinese equities, as it accelerates the need for stimulus? I am not so sure, but the cleaner trade remains USDCNH upside, where weakness in the yuan should in turn weigh on the AUD. • Australia Q2 Wage Price Index (15 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the market looks for wages to grow at 0.9% QoQ, and 3.7% YoY (unchanged from Q1) – unless we get a YoY WPI print above 4% YoY, the data shouldn’t alter Aussie rates pricing to intently where the market prices 15bp (or a 59% chance) of hikes by December. • UK employment and weekly earnings (ex-bonus) report (15 Aug 16:00 AEST) – the market expects wages to push to 7.4% (from 7.3%), with the UK unemployment rate eyed at 4%. The GBP was a relative outperformer last week in G10 FX, notably vs JPY and NZD – so GBP longs will look for big wage print this week, which would confirm expectations of a 25bp hike from the BoE on 21 September and lift peak rate expectations towards 6%. • US retail sales (15 Aug 22:30 AEST) - the market looks for sales to grow 0.4% with the ‘control group’, the basket of sales that feeds more directly into the Q3 GDP calculation, eyed at 0.5%. • Canada CPI inflation (15 Aug 22:30 AEST) – the market prices 5bp of hikes for the next BoC meeting (6 Sep), so the CPI report could alter that pricing resulting in increased CAD volatility. Here, the market sees headline CPI coming in at 3% YoY (from 2.8%) or 0.3% MoM. Core CPI is eyed at 3.7% (3.9 yoy). It may take a 4-handle on core CPI to see the September meeting as a ‘live’ event. • China new home prices (16 Aug 11:30) – with the Chinese property market in focus, as well as property developers and if we are to see a credit event, new home sales could get the headlines and move Chinese assets. • RBNZ meeting (16 Aug 12:00 AEST) – the market is firmly of the view that RBNZ keep rates unchanged at 5.5%, and we see only 6bp of hikes priced for the remainder of 2023. It seems unlikely the NZD will move too intently on the RBNZ statement and may revert quickly to following moves in the yuan and China equity markets. • UK July CPI (16 Aug 16:00 AEST) – coming after last week’s hotter UK Q2 GDP print, and Tuesday’s UK labour report, the market expects headlines inflation to drop to 6.8% YoY (from 7.9%). However, core CPI is likely to remain frustrating sticky also at 6.8% (from 6.9%). Unless core inflation falls markedly, then a 25bp hike in Sept is all but assured. • July FOMC meeting minutes (17 Aug 04:00 AEST) – the Fed have moved to a firm data-dependent approach, so the minutes may not offer any surprising insights. The market is waiting for new data, where they can potentially revisit low expectations of a hike in the November FOMC meeting, which is currently priced at a 33% chance. • Australia July employment report (17 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the usual monthly labour market lottery – the consensus is we see 15k net jobs being added, with the unemployment rate eyed at 3.6% - again, it’s hard to see the data altering rate expectations too intently and unless we get a big beat/miss shouldn’t see any lasting move in the AUD. On the day, I would be fading extreme moves intraday through buy/sell limit orders in AUD. • Norges central bank meeting (17 Aug 18:00 AEST) – The Norwegian central bank should almost certainly hike by 25bp to 4%. The NOK takes its cues from energy markets, although the 20-day rolling correlation between Brent crude and the NOK is not overly impressive at 56%. The NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, so unless we get a great surprise from the Norges Bank, we should see the NOK revert to watching crude, Nat Gas and being a high beta risk proxy. • Japan July CPI (18 Aug 09:30 AEST) – with the market establishing JPY shorts as the preferred funding currency for carry exposures, we question if the JP national CPI print really matters given the JPY’s lack of cyclical qualities. We shall see, but the market looks for headline CPI at 3.3% and core at 4.3% (4.2%). With USDJPY eyeing a retest of the 30 June highs of 145.07, and the trade-weighted JPY breaking to new lows, the market may be looking out more intently for JPY intervention headlines. Stocks to watch; earnings front of mind: • HK – Tencent (report on 16 Aug) – with a market cap of HK$3.21t, Tencent has easily the biggest weight and influence on the HK50. The implied move for earnings is 2.7%, so it could get lively. • US – we get the retail names due this week with Home Depot (15 Aug), Target (16 Aug), and Walmart (17 Aug) offering insights into consumer trends. • Australia – 52 ASX200 companies report numbers this week – including, JBH (14 Aug), CSL (15 Aug), COH (15 Aug)
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
EURAUD: Rebounded From EMA200 Line, Continuation of Bull Run?Hello Fellow Forex Traders, Here is a technical analysis of EURAUD for your consideration. The recent price action of EURAUD indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend as it has consistently rebounded from the EMA200 line. Moreover, we can observe the formation of a descending broadening wedge pattern, followed by a trendline breakout. This breakout suggests the likelihood of an upward movement soon. To further support this possibility, the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, which typically signifies a bullish trend, indicating a potential upward movement toward the target area. It is important to keep in mind that once the target/support area is reached, the roadmap provided may no longer be valid. If you find this analysis helpful, I encourage you to show your support by clicking the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comments section below. "Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on the FX:EURAUD currency pair." Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
by financialfreedomgoals101
6
AUD breakout traders – look to the yuan for inspirationAs is typically the way in FX trading the breakout traders see a set-up on the higher timeframes and either the market uses these levels to fade the move, or the breakout fails to gain traction and ultimately reverses. Those seasoned traders who use breakouts for trade entry – often momentum and trend-followers – know the percentage of breakouts that lead to trending conditions is typically low. It is why they target ‘outlier’ moves within a distribution and subscribe to the view that the win/loss ratio is not a major concern. The strategy will typically run win rates of 30-40% but will focus more on the reward-to-risk trade-off. Extracting as much profit from each trade is where they make their money and that is where the science of holding positions kicks in. We may end up with many small losing positions, but when we win it is ideally a 5 to 10R. Holding, as I say, is key and that is never easy – it is why having a rules-based strategy can pay dividends. When the market breaks out and goes on a run you must know when to hold and when to fold. Granted, FX markets have a higher propensity to revert to a mean than commodities or equity indices, but the AUD screams out as currently fitting this dynamic. Notably, EURAUD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF and GBPAUD screened on the breakout radar yesterday, but have since failed to follow through with the move. China is at the heart of the AUD recent moves. USDCNH has always been a strong guide for me on AUD flows, and while I have been of the view that weaker external demand needs a weaker currency – the PBoC is doing the utmost to push back on the yuan weakness, with consistently stronger yuan ‘fixings’ (seen each day at 11:15 AEST). As a driver, we’ve seen a slightly better China CPI print today at -0.3% and USDCNH has sold off, in turn, this has lifted the AUD. The statistical correlation between AUD and CNH has broken down of late, but for those trading AUDUSD or the AUD crosses through Asia, the influence of the yuan is still incredibly significant. Tactically, if we are to see an upside break of 7.2500 (in USDCNH) I’d have far higher conviction we’ll see a closing breakout in these AUD pairs. Patience is always our best friend in trading, especially when using leverage, as we need to nail our entries – so having the set-ups on the radar and waiting for the market flow to push a trade is prudent. One could say we’re at peak negative sentiment towards China, and next week’s China economic data (industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment) is likely to see a more pronounced positive reaction to a beat than a negative one to a miss. That is a risk to manage, but if the AUD kicks lower in these pairs it could be meaningful and certainly be welcomed by those that like to trade continuations.
Short
by Pepperstone
EURAUD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range Pair Name : EUR/AUD 🗨Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close ➕Scale Type : Large Scale ------ 🗒 spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most important points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons We seek to spread understanding rather than make money ✔️ Key Technical / Direction ( Long ) Type : Mid Term Swing —————————— Bullish Break 1.66100 Area Reasons - Major Turn level - visible Range lvn - Fixed Range Lvn - Choch Area Break - D / w High Break Bearish Reversal 1.68200 Area Reasons - Major Turn level / W + D - Visible Range D lvn - Major Choch Area / M - Pattern Target - Fibo Golden - Quarter's Area
Long
by GoldenEngine
4
EURAUD ____ INCOMING SHORT-TERM SELL -- LONG-TERM BUYHello Guys, EURAUD, just like EURNZD (See analysis below) in my speculation is poised to continue the bullish drive. However, there might be a bearish opportunity that will form the retracement for the bullish drive. Price is trading at a key level from where the retracement might start. However, if the price would just wick above the previous high, I would love it... as it would entail that we have swept liquidity which would give momentum for the bearish move (retracement). See below correlated pairs: EURNZD & EURAUD Follow for more updates like this. EURCAD ANALYSIS EURNZD ANALYSIS Cheers, Jabari
Long
by jabariofafrica
EURAUD Possible Reversal Analysis📈 EURAUD Trade Analysis 🐂📉 🔍 Technical Analysis Overview 🔍 📈 Trend: Bullish 📉 Divergence: Yes, Bearish 🔄 Reversal Pattern: Double Top ✔️ Break Out/Confirmation: Will trigger if it crosses the neckline 📊 Trade Status: Active - Sell Stop Order @ 1.66286 💡 Trade Plan 💡 ✅ The EURAUD currency pair is currently showing a bullish trend on the 1-hour chart, which indicates that prices are likely to rise in the short term. ❗️ However, it's essential to consider that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling bearish divergence. This means that while prices are making higher highs, the RSI is making lower highs, hinting at a potential reversal. 🚨 Furthermore, the market appears to be forming a Double Top pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. The Double Top pattern occurs when price attempts to break through a resistance level twice but fails, indicating a potential trend reversal to the downside. ⚠️ We are closely monitoring the price action for a breakout below the neckline, which serves as a confirmation for the Double Top pattern. If the EURAUD crosses the neckline, we expect a strong bearish move. 📉 Trade Execution 📉 📉 Sell Stop Order: @ 1.66286 🛡️ Stop Loss: @ 1.67705 🎯 Take Profit (1:1): @ 1.64851 💼 Investment Advice 💼 📢 Please note that trading forex involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use appropriate risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders, to protect your capital. 🧠 This trade idea is based on technical analysis, and it's important to stay updated on market developments and adjust your strategy accordingly. 🤝 Remember to do your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 🚀 Let's monitor the EURAUD closely and see if our analysis aligns with the price action. Happy trading! 📈💹 #ForexTrading #TradingOpportunity #ForexSignals #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #RiskManagement #TradeSmart #TradingView #LearnTrading #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #EURAUD #BullishTrend #DoubleTop #BearishDivergence #BreakoutOpportunity
Short
by T-Q