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Euraudshort

EURAUD Breakdown: Bearish Continuation Ahead of ECBEURAUD is showing signs of renewed downside pressure as fundamental and technical forces align in favor of Australian dollar strength. With the European Central Bank expected to hold rates steady and provide a cautious growth outlook, the euro remains vulnerable. Meanwhile, upside surprises in Australian inflation and supportive commodity dynamics continue to boost AUD sentiment. Technically, the pair has broken down from a rising wedge, confirming bearish momentum and setting the stage for further declines toward key support near 1.7648 and potentially 1.7500. 🟢 Current Bias: Bearish 🔑 Key Fundamentals: ECB: Markets expect the ECB to hold rates steady this week. While this ends a 7-year streak of cuts, the bank has turned cautiously neutral, with no clear signal of future tightening. Core inflation remains subdued, and growth momentum across Germany and the euro area is weak. RBA & Australia: The RBA faces persistent inflation risks after the June CPI surprised to the upside, putting rate hikes back on the table. The Aussie dollar is drawing strength from this, especially with rising commodity prices and China's potential fiscal stimulus aiding demand-side confidence. Macro Divergence: Australia’s macro picture is improving vs. the eurozone. AUD has tailwinds; EUR is under pressure from stagnant growth and tepid inflation outlook. ⚠️ Risks to Bias: ECB Surprise: A sudden hawkish tone from the ECB (e.g., lifting forecasts or emphasizing wage-driven inflation risk) could spark short-term EUR upside. RBA Softness: A dovish RBA pivot or weak Aussie data could weaken AUD strength and slow EURAUD downside. Geopolitical Risk: Broader global volatility (e.g., US-China, oil disruptions) could cause flows into euro as a semi-safe haven. 📅 Key News/Events to Watch: ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference – July 25 Eurozone Flash GDP + CPI – Next week China industrial data (AUD-sensitive) RBA August Meeting Statement (early Aug) 📉 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart): Price broke bearish from a wedge consolidation. Minor bullish pullbacks are being sold into, confirming a distribution phase. Targets: 1st Target: 1.76480 (support & fib confluence) 2nd Target: 1.7500–1.7460 zone (major swing low) Resistance: 1.7855–1.7975 zone is key invalidation area. Structure favors lower highs & continuation patterns until support zones break. 🧭 Leader/Lagger Behavior: AUD is leading the move. Strong CPI and China demand backdrop are fueling bullish AUD momentum. EUR is lagging, tracking broader USD risk tone and internal Eurozone data weakness. EURAUD is currently reactive to external forces rather than setting direction for other pairs. ✅ Summary: Bias and Watchpoints Bias: Bearish Fundamentals: Weak Eurozone growth vs. hotter Aussie inflation and hawkish RBA tone. Risk: ECB hawkish tilt or a dovish shift from the RBA. Event to Watch: ECB press conference and Aussie CPI commentary from policymakers. Leader/Lagger: Lagger — following AUD strength rather than leading.
Short
by ultreosforex
6
EURAUD – Planning Ahead, Not PredictingAs usual, I have marked my level. 🎯 I’m waiting for the price to reach it and if a valid sell signal appears, I will enter a short position. If the level is broken cleanly, I’ll wait for a pullback and enter a buy trade. We are just traders, not predictors. We have no impact on the market — we are just a tiny part of a huge system. 🧠 So I never say: “Price will come here, then must fall.” That’s not my mindset. My belief is simple: Manage risk, be prepared for everything. One trade won’t make me rich, and I won’t let one trade destroy me. 📌 Stop-loss is the first and last rule. Trading without a stop-loss is just gambling.
Short
by ForexCSP
EURAUD - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH1 - Strong bearish move. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by VladimirRibakov
EURAUD confirms the continuation of the bearish correction trendEURAUD has just broken the rising channel to start a downtrend. The confirmation is there with the h4 candle closing completely below the support zone of the Price Channel. This corrective downtrend can now extend to the support of 1.766. The support zone is a Break point at the moment 1.778 is a positive DCA point with a SELL Entry above. Support: 1.778-1.766 Resistance: 1.790-1.797 Sell now: Resistance zone 1.79000 Target: 1.778 Support zone, followed by 1.766 lower zone Sell Trigger: Break below 1.778 BUY Trigger: rejection 1.778 Support zone Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Short
by VHT_Trader
EurAud SellBroken Trendline: The ascending channel has been clearly broken (highlighted by the yellow trendline break). This suggests the bullish momentum is exhausted, and we might be entering a bearish phase. Elliott Wave Pattern (1–5): You’ve correctly labeled an impulse wave down with five potential legs. Current price is possibly in Wave 4 retracement, and Wave 5 is expected to move downwards. Fibonacci Retracement Zone: Price is retracing into the 61.8%–78.6% zone (typical area for Wave 4 retracement). Rejection here is a prime area to look for sell confirmations. Liquidity Zones: The yellow highlighted box shows a liquidity sweep / possible order block area. This region may serve as a trap zone before dropping — ideal area to watch for bearish confirmation. Confluence Factors: Shooting Star candles at highs (sign of exhaustion). Market structure has shifted — Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) support bearish bias. Price rejected the weak high (labeled on chart), which also confirms sellers stepped in. Good Luck 🎯
Short
by AzdrenBytyqi
EUR/AUD 1H – Decision Point Ahead Breakout or Fakeout? Eyes on Confirmation Zone 👁️ EUR/AUD has finally tapped into a critical resistance at 1.79900, a level previously rejected with high volatility. The current price action is testing this ceiling, with signs of strength — but smart money waits for confirmation. What We’re Seeing: 🔹 Uptrend Intact: All EMAs are aligned in bullish order. 🔹 Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed below — a potential area of demand. 🔹 Price now hovering inside the Confirmation Zone — marked by previous highs and psychological resistance. 🔹 Volume building gradually — but breakout volume not confirmed yet. ⚖️ Summary: Trend: Upward Structure: Breakout under test Momentum: Bullish Market Phase: Confirmation / decision point Key Behavior: Watch for commitment or rejection without predicting it
by SLPHOBIA
EURAUD: Possible Swing Movement of 660 pips expected! FX:EURAUD on daily candles of last few days breakthrough and now dropping back to demand zone where we expect price to bounce strongly and at least we expect target one to accomplished by end of January. While target two and three remain a long away from our current price area. Stop Loss should be below the strong wick of daily candle. From fundamentals side AUD will be weaken and EURO can be bullish for next few months, taking entry will require a strict risk management as this is a swing trade, do not expect to achieve the target in couple of hours or days. Good luck and trade safe.
Long
by Setupsfx_
18
EURAUD – Rejection From Resistance: Bearish Momentum BuildingThe recent rally on EURAUD has met strong rejection near the 1.7980–1.8000 supply zone, signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum. With price forming a clear lower high and pushing away from the upper range, traders may be eyeing short setups targeting deeper fib retracements. Here's how the fundamentals align with the technical picture: 🔻 Bias: Bearish 🔑 Key Fundamentals Eurozone: While the German Ifo business sentiment has improved, hard data (like industrial output) remains weak. ECB speakers such as Panetta and Knot continue to lean dovish, signaling no urgency for further tightening. Australia: The AUD is finding strength from a risk-on global environment, falling oil prices (positive for AUD importers), and stability in China-sensitive commodities. The RBA remains relatively hawkish versus the ECB. Yield Spread: Euro-Australia rate differentials are narrowing, reducing EUR’s relative appeal. ⚠️ Risks to Bias Unexpected Hawkish ECB Commentary Risk-Off Event (e.g., equity sell-off or new geopolitical tensions) that could weaken AUD China PMI Miss dragging AUD if demand outlook sours 📅 News/Events to Watch June 28: U.S. Core PCE (Fed impact → EURUSD spillover) June 30: China PMIs (key for AUD demand outlook) Ongoing: ECB member speeches, Eurozone CPI prelims 🔄 Potential Leader AUD Crosses (e.g., AUDJPY, AUDUSD) may lead broader moves if China PMI surprises or if commodities rebound further. This technical rejection from the key resistance zone aligns with the macro shift favoring AUD strength over EUR. As long as price stays below the 1.7980–1.8000 zone, EURAUD may slide toward 1.7730, 1.7595, and even 1.7460 in extension. 🔔 Trade idea: Watch for bearish confirmation on the H4 close below 1.7830 to validate momentum continuation.
Short
by ultreosforex
3
EURAUD forming a top?EURAUD - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a top. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.7805. We look to Sell at 1.7805 (stop at 1.7840) Our profit targets will be 1.7705 and 1.7680 Resistance: 1.7830 / 1.7850 / 1.7880 Support: 1.7710 / 1.7680 / 1.7650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA