EUR/CAD: Key Levels and Trading Strategies for Upcoming Moves📅 Let's get into today's analysis. I've decided to focus more on Forex analyses, and today we're analyzing the EUR/CAD pair with the main timeframe being weekly. I'll be looking at the chart solely from a technical analysis perspective.
🔍 In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, after the market found support at the 1.2953 level, bullish momentum entered and we managed to move up to the 1.4945 resistance level. After this sharp upward movement, the market entered a correction phase and corrected down to the 1.4141 level. Currently, the price is ranging between the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.4945 resistance. I believe that until the price either breaks above 1.4945 or below 1.4141, the market will continue to range within this box.
🧩 There is also a minor ascending trend line that the price has reacted to multiple times, which could be a key determinant for future price movements. The price is currently trading above this trend line, indicating potential continued bullish momentum if it holds.
🧲 Regarding the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 1.4330, it has acted as a strong support in the past and could continue to do so. If the price breaks below this level, it might move down to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.4141.
📈 For a long position on the weekly timeframe, it seems appropriate to wait for a break above the 1.4945 resistance area. The target for this move, based on the overall range, could be 1.5798. However, this target is quite high, and if the price aims to reach it, it will likely be a long-term move.
📉 For a short position, breaking below 1.4141 serves as a good trigger. If the price stabilizes below this level, it might move down to the area around 1.4327 and potentially lower if the bearish momentum is strong.
For shorter-term positions, it's better to look at the 4-hour timeframe. In this timeframe, we have a long-term range box and a significant support area around the 0.382 Fibonacci level on the weekly chart. There’s no need to extend the analysis here; I’ll just discuss the entry triggers.
📈 For long positions, we have three different triggers. The first trigger is a break above 1.4763, which is the riskiest one with a target of 1.4945. The next trigger is a break above 1.4945 with a target of 1.5798. The final trigger is at 1.5798, with potential higher targets if the bullish momentum is strong.
📉 For short positions, the first trigger is a break below 1.4591, and the second trigger is the break of the support area at 1.4327.
♟ Now, let me explain how I personally trade with each trigger. For the long trigger at 1.4763, I open positions in lower timeframes such as the 1-hour chart and set a small stop loss to quickly reach a risk-reward ratio of 2, which is my first target, with minimal risk. For the 1.4945 trigger, I open a position with normal risk and a regular stop loss size. For the 1.5798 trigger, I open a position with a larger stop loss because the trigger is at a significant resistance level and represents a very strong supply zone. For short positions, I do not open any until the price stabilizes below the support area.
📝 In summary, EUR/CAD is currently in a ranging phase between the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.4945 resistance level. Depending on the break above 1.4945 or below 1.4141, there are opportunities for long or short positions, respectively. For those trading in shorter timeframes, key entry triggers and careful risk management are essential to navigate the market effectively.
🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in Forex trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
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