A Traders’ Playbook – Defence remains the best form of attack Equity continues to trade heavily, and while we are getting to a point of extreme fear, the price action, and the bearish momentum in EU, AUS200 and US equity indices, suggest this is still a sellers’ market. While we have some big catalysts due this week, I still think we must navigate a passage of darkness before we see light in this tunnel.
The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remains a dominant market consideration and the market still sees an increasing risk the conflict will not be contained with other players stepping into the conflict.
A near 3% rally in Brent crude on Friday testament to those worries, with the move above $90 seeing traders bid up gold to $2006, with gold's role as the preeminent portfolio hedge once again confirmed. A move into the April/May supply area of $2050 seems perfectly feasible, and the bullish momentum in the price, and the ease by which we’ve seen gold push through well-watched resistance levels, suggests the path of least resistance remains higher and pullbacks should be well supported.
The BoJ meeting could be a real curveball and while the odds are we see it proving to be a low-volatility event, if the BoJ does tweak the YCC cap to 1.5% it could trigger a wave of selling through global long-end bonds (yields higher). This would likely see sizeable gyrations play through all markets, with the JPY – which has stolen the crown from the CHF as the no.1 geopolitical FX hedge – likely to rally hard. Gov Ueda has aimed to be more predictable than former gov Kuroda, so with recent press suggesting a tweak to YCC could be on the cards, the prospect of change to policy is 50:50.
We also get the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding activity throughout the week. To those who aren’t fixed-income traders, this can be an event that isn’t too well-known. As we saw in August, when the Treasury Department detailed increased auction size in its financing plans, it proved to be a key driver behind US Treasury yields rising sharply from 4%. Once again, this event does have the potential to create some big vol in bonds, which could spill over into FX and equity markets. This time around, could we see lower increases in supply, which in turn supports USTs?
Staying in the US, while the FOMC meeting can never be ignored, traders get a thorough read on the US labour market and wages/earnings. On the docket, we get ADP payrolls, the Employment Cost Index, JOLTS job openings, Unit Labour Costs, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls. US swap pricing has a 25bp hike in December priced at a 20% chance, so big numbers in this report could see that probability rise, which would likely see the USD break out of the current sideways consolidation.
Corporate earnings get another run past traders, with 24% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Apple is the marquee name to report, with the options market pricing a move on the day at 3.7% - the market focused on iPhone demand and consumer trends in China. Rallies have been sold of late, with price now below the 200-day MA for the first time since 2 March 2022.
It promises to be another lively week – good luck to all.
The marquee event risks for the week ahead:
Month-end flows – talk is pension funds and other asset managers rebalancing in favour of selling of USDs.
China manufacturing and services PMI (31 Oct 12:30 AEDT) – the market sees the manufacturing index at 50.2 (unchanged) and services index at 51.8.
EU CPI (31 Oct 21:00 AEDT) – while EU growth data seems the more important factor, we could see some volatility in the EUR on this data point. The market consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 3.1% and core CPI at 4.2%. EURCAD is trending higher, and I like it into 1.4750.
BoJ meeting (31 Oct – no set time) – the BoJ should increase their inflation estimates, but the focus will fall on whether there is an adjustment or even full removal of Yield Curve Control (YCC). This is where the BoJ currently cap 10-yr JGB yields (Japan Govt bonds) at 1%. The consensus sees no change to YCC at this meeting, but there is a 50:50 chance we see the cap lifted to 1.5% - an action which could see JGBs sell off (higher yields) and see global bond yields higher in symphony. It could also see the JPY rally strongly.
US consumer confidence (1 Nov 01:00 AEDT) – The market expects the index to pull back to 100.0 (from 103.0) – unlikely to cause to much of a reaction across markets unless it’s a big miss.
US Treasury November Refunding (30 Nov at 06:00 & 1 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – the US Treasury Department (UST) will offer its gross financing estimates for Q42023 (currently $850b) and end-of-quarter targets for its cash balances. It is likely that the gross borrowing estimate will be lowered to $800b, perhaps even lower. The lower the outcome the more USTs should rally and vice versa.
On 1 Nov we will see the UST announce the size of upcoming bond auctions across the 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10- and 30-year bond maturities. The market expects auction sizes to increase across ‘the curve’ by around $1-2b for each maturity. As we saw in August, the higher we see these taken the greater the likely reaction in US Treasuries and subsequently the USD.
FOMC meeting (2 Nov 05:00 AEDT) – The market ascribes no chance of a hike, so guidance from the statement and Powell’s press conference is key. One can never overlook a Fed meeting, but in theory, we shouldn’t learn too much new information and this should be a low-drama event.
BoE meeting (2 Nov 23:00 AEDT) – UK swaps price a 4% chance of a 25bp hike at this meeting, and around a 1 in 3 chance of a 25bp hike by Feb 24. The split in the voting could also be important, with most economists leaning on a 6:3 split. The market feels like the BoE are done hiking, with cuts starting to be priced by June.
US ISM manufacturing (2 Nov 01:00) – The consensus is for the index to come in at 49.0 (unchanged). Consider that the diffusion index has been below 50 since October 2022, so a reading above 50.0 could be modestly USD positive.
US JOLTS job openings (2 Nov 01:00) – Last month we saw a big increase in job openings and further evidence the US labour market is tight. The consensus this time around is for 9.265m job openings (from 9.61m) – risky assets will want to see this turn lower again with reduced job openings.
US nonfarm payrolls (3 Nov 23:30 AEDT) – With so many labour market and wage/earnings data point due out this week, the US NFP report is the highlight. After last month’s blowout 336k jobs print, the current consensus is for 190k jobs, the U/E rate at 3.8% and average hourly earnings at 4%.
Brazil Central Bank meeting (2 Nov 08:30 AEDT) – The BCB should cut by 50bp.
Earnings – This week we see earnings from UK, EU and US listed names coming in thick and fast - 24% of the S&P500 market cap report this week. Numbers from HSBC (Monday), Caterpillar (Tuesday) AMD (Tuesday), Qualcomm (Wednesday), Apple (Thursday) should get the attention.
Eurcad!
An eventual target of 1.48?Watching for favorable setup to long.How about you?
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EURCAD - Long from bullish order block ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on EURCAD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for long. I want price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 1.46000.
Fundamental analysis: Next week on Tuesday and Friday we have news on CAD, will be released monthly GDP and Unemployment Rate. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content
EURCAD consecutive swing highsEURCAD continues to create higher highs and higher lows which suggests that price is not about to reverse. On the fundamental side, the euro is also quite resilient.
EURCAD - Resistance Becomes SupportHello Traders !
The EURCAD Price Broke a Daily Resistance Level (1.45161 - 1.44648)
Currently,
-This Resistance Level Becomes a New Support Level.
So, I Expect a Bullish Move📈
i'm waiting for retest...
-----------
TARGET: 1.46220🎯
___________
if you agree with this IDEA, please leave a LIKE, SUBSCRIBE or COMMENT!
EURCSD H4 | Falling to support?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at1.4603, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.4530, an overlap support level. The stop loss will be placed at 1.4657, which is an overlap resistance level."
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURCADEURCAD is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new HHs and HLs.
currently the market is retracing a bit after last HH, which is also the 50% fib retracement level and local support as well. if the market successfully sustain this bullish confluence the next leg high could go for new HH
What you guys think of this idea ?
EURCAD, Trading range price actionEURCAD / 1D
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
EURCAD pair has been trading in a bullish trend, the price is showing evidence of trend resumption so far. I'll look to get on for higher prices after getting the LTF confirmation.
The price is now stuck in a trading range as showen in the chart.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo
EURCADEURCAD is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new HHs and HLs.
currently the market is retracing a bit after last HH, which is also the 38% to 50% fib retracement level and local support as well. if the market successfully sustain this bullish confluence the next leg high could be 1.4660.
What you guys think of this idea ?
EURCAD ShortOANDA:EURCAD
The probability of a potential bearish trend for the EURCAD currency pair is rising as the current price has reached the daily trend line. However, based on the historical trend analysis, a slight upward price movement may occur before the bearish trend begins. Therefore, the price is expected to gradually decrease to specific levels as the bearish trend persists.
EURCAD Short M15, M30, H1 and H4 are overbought
There is a previous days high and a long consolidation
There are multiple tops on this trade and there is a lot of divergence
Pattern on H4 which normally means this trade should fall.
EURCAD: One More Breakout Trade 🇪🇺🇨🇦
I spotted one more confirmed breakout.
EURCAD violated a key daily resistance.
On a retest of a broken structure, the price formed an ascending triangle formation
with a confirmed neckline violation.
I expect a further bullish continuation on the pair at least to 1.458
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Reach the "second floor"Eurcad is incoming to the break out level (expectecd to be SBR zone) and trendline on H4. Expect will drop from the level. Risky entry with limit order, safer entry waiting for valid rejection. Swing sell set up, target not less than 100 pips.
EURCAD: Curve Analysis (2H)SLO @ 1.4404 ⏳
TP1 @ 1.4330
TP2 @ 1.4287
TP3 @ 1.4238
📉 Overall Trend: Bearish
Resistance: 1.4480
Support: 1.4175
✍️ Technical Indicators:
P2P INDi identifies curve from:
PH @ 1.44974
PL @ 1.41578
📉 TEMASHA identifies 1.4404 as a sniper entry for a short
📉 Moving Averages:
The 50/100/200-period all suggests that the overall trend is still bearish
📈 Oscillators
There is some bullish momentum in the shorter term
📉 RSI: The RSI is below 50, which is also bearish.
EURCAD SELL | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity EURCAD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗
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EURCAD Local Long!EUR-CAD was trading in a
bullish pennant but now
We are seeing a bullish
Breakout and rteste
so I think that
The pair will go up!
EURCAD 1day MA50 break out. Buy.The EURCAD pair crossed over the 1day MA50 yesterday for the first time in 6 weeks and today is closing over it.
This is a bullish extension signal towards at least the Falling Resistance.
Every bullish sequence in 2023 following a 1day MA50 break out has made at least a +4.21% rise.
Buy now and target 1.46800 (Falling Resistance).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
EURCADEURCAD is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new HHs and HLs.
currently the market is retracing a bit after last HH, which is also the 50% fib retracement level and local support as well. if the market successfully sustain this bullish confluence the next leg high could be 1.4600.
What you guys think of this idea ?
EURCAD H4 | Bullish bounce off 38.2% fibo?Price could fall to our buy entry at 1.4449, which is a pullback support level, aligning with the 38.2% fibo retracement and 61.8% fibo projection. Our stop loss is at 1.4384, which is a pullback support level. Take profit is at 1.4530, which is the overlap resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURCAD - Looking To Buy Pullbacks In The Short TermH1 - Bullish trend pattern.
Until the strong support zone holds I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.
EURCAD H1 | Falling to support level?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.4436, which is a multi-swing high resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.4385 a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 11.4475, which is a swing-high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money..
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EUR/CAD analysis Hello traders, EUR/CAD analysis is starting to form a bullish channel. I like the opportunity to buy in the short term
