EURCAD - how a long opportunity was created and our psychologyEURCAD - how a long opportunity was created
We look for the facts what will reinforce our position.
This is what we know has happened with EURCAD that supports our case to go long:
1. EURCAD broken a long standing trend line (purple line - dating back to 2012).
2. It is at the bottom of a long lasting range. It has been ranging since 2015. Also it is at the bottom of a smaller range.
3. It is oversold. Price has dropped 5.39% since September.
4. Market has created a double-bottom (Feb 20).
4. Price created a 1.272 extension on the daily (see pink line). This would be our entry - see yellow bubble.
The market came to a bottom on 14th Oct found some buyers and then went lower on the 27th.
Some would look at this as a bear trap and possible 5th reason to go long here.
To measure this we would measure the fib extension from the bottom on the 14th to the top of the 27th. We see the price touching the 1.272 ext later on 27th (if you go down to the 8hr you will see this).
That touch of the 1.272 is our buy zone. We look for a trade if we see a buying tail.
Where would our target be?
We can see that there is little resistance back up to the purple 9 year trend-line that was broken.
If we use the fib retracement tool from the top (20th Sept) to the bottom (27th Oct) of the final swing, the 50% is below the trend line and this would seem an achievable goal.
Our first target will be the 382 followed by the zone holding both the 50% and the broken trend line.
Now if we missed the optimal entry point (at the 1.272) the market has given us two more chances in the last couple of trading days. Both days the price dropped close to the bottom and rejected quickly.
If we missed these entries it is too late.
In the last two weeks the market has created a small range and we are now at the top of the range.
Should the market dip again to the bottom of this small range it may be our final chance to go long.
Where would your stop be?
The most obvious zone would be just below the low on the 27th. Another option would be below the low in Feb 2020 (first of double bottom).
So here we have a market that was oversold, came to a double bottom, is at the bottom of a range, found a 1.272 ext and has little resistance back up to the trend line - we cannot ask for the more than that!
Could we be wrong - absolutely but all we can hope for is to stack the odds in our favour and we have done that here.
Trading is all about your state of mind.
If you find an optimal entry and take the trade with a small stop then step back and let the market do it's thing.
Step away from the screen, perhaps briefly check in toward the end of the day, once a day.
Chances are the market will get to your target so let it in it's own time.
If it doesn't, you will have a small stop anyway.
Don't trade if you are not prepared to lose with a small stop.
In this market, if we got in at the bottom of the 27th and watched the market intently for the week we would have seen the market grind higher for the first 3 days and then for the last two days produce two big red bars that eventually turned green.
These last two days could have wreaked havoc on our psychology. We could have been persuaded to pull out on a breakeven int he last two trading days and more importantly we could have agitated our mental fortitude in doing so.
On the other hand, if we have a plan we are completely comfortable with, execute and stick to it we could now look back and see the last two days rejecting a lower price and continue it's upward momentum.
We do feel quite good about things.
