EURCNH, Trendline Rebound PossibilityEURCNH daily chart is consolidating and has formed a new higher low. This higher low can be connected with a trendline to create a support trendline. The price is currently approaching this support trendline, and there is a chance for a bullish bounce or rebound from support line.
EURCNH
EURCNHPast analysis :
The EuroStoxx 50 index is up 0.39%, the FTSEurofirst 300 is stable and the Stoxx 600 gains 0.2%.
The main European stock markets are moving without a clear trend at the start of Monday's session in a context of caution at the start of a week which will be marked by the highly anticipated US inflation figure and the mid-term elections in the United States. .
= waiting for US data
In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 0.02% to 6,414.94 points around 08:45 GMT. In London, the FTSE 100 lost 0.03% and in Frankfurt, the Dax advanced by 0.38%.
Stock indices rose more than 2% on Friday on hopes of a relaxation of COVID-19 measures in China, but Chinese health officials on Saturday reaffirmed their commitment to a "zero COVID-19" strategy. dynamic".
= continuation of coercive measures in China
The Chinese indicators of the day confirmed the bad turn of the economy: exports and imports fell in October against all expectations under the effect of health restrictions, inflation and the rise in interest rates abroad.
Chinese markets ended the day in positive territory, however, as investors continued to speculate on an easing of anti-COVID measures despite official denials.
= economic slowdown in China
The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in September as the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% and average hourly wage growth slowed slightly year on year to 4.7% but accelerated to month-on-month, at 0.3.
Luxury stocks, very dependent on the Chinese market, also stand out: Hermès, LVMH and Kering gained from 3.71% to 7.07%.
The owner of Gucci also took advantage of information from the Wall Street Journal according to which discussions are underway for the possible takeover of the Tom Ford brand.
= Luxury market in good health despite everything
In the news of the results, Societe Generale (+ 2.55%) published quarterly performance above expectations thanks to its trading activities.
JCDecaux shares jumped 14.34% as the outdoor advertising specialist reported quarterly revenue growth above expectations.
The prospect of lasting monetary tightening in the United States continues to drive up Treasury yields. That of the ten takes more than four basis points to 4.171%.
= speculation on the bond markets following potential rate increases
In Europe, its German equivalent evolved at the end of the session towards 2.29%.
Christine Lagarde and Luis de Guindos, the President and Vice-President of the European Central Bank respectively, underlined that the Frankfurt institution continued to give priority to slowing inflation in the euro zone to prevent it takes root.
On the currency side, the euro rose 1.65% to 0.9912 dollars. The greenback fell 1.4% against a basket of benchmark currencies.
= ECB rate hike outlook
Now :
Indicators indicating a trend reversal
- Decreasing ADX
- Decreasing Momentum (& little divergence)
- RSI emerging from the overbought area
EURCNH Possible 3R Sell at confluence areaAs we see on the chart, the pair is going to retest a very interesting confluence area - a bearish trend on daily and H4, mirror level broken and soon will be retested, bearish trendline with many touches, and also a possible break and retest of a bullish counter trendline. Also, we have a clear impulse and nice correction to the mirror level.
Risk Management is the #1 rule, you can't control the market, but you can control your risk management. Stay calm and risk 1%.
Global demand for EURO fallingI compared EURO value to all major world economies outside of European Economic area (EEA) for an accurate evaluation of euro currency on global scale (USA, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Brasil, Australia and South Korea).
And this is what we get in times of COVID crisis:
When COVID started in Wuhan and China international demand for EURO started to increase rapidly. Euro broke yearly ceiling.
But as COVID started to infect EU in March uncertainity started and now we broke the demand line and started a bearish trend which will continue as we broke and closed below April support S3 (below April value).
EURCNH - 1 -> 0 -> 1.272 once more?Just a placeholder for now, since I'm not sure if there will be another high here - in this case, I'll have to adjust second Fibonacci and yellow line. Let's see how it will behave in the next week.
(inspired by @ridethepig idea: )
Daily chart:
Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
ridethepig | EURCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too and to put the 🍒 on top the virus still not under control.
I am expecting further downside in euro as the outbreak continues to delay the recovery in trade for Europe, now it is crystal clear if it wasn't already that the EUR really holds the key to pandora's box for those wanting to play the reflationary trade. This has been delayed till later in 2020 via the deflationary shock from COVID-19. Tracking 1.05xx-1.04xx in EURUSD.
On the CNH side, the PBOC intervention is notable:
Advise selling rallies in Chinese Equities for now, the demand for currency will increase as long as the virus shows no signs of abating. I expect this cross to grind towards the 7.40 levels where it would be very attractive for those mid and long-term macro players to buy the dip into 2021. On the technical side, Strong resistance is found at 7.73 / 7.75, use this to sell into and target the support at 7.40 / 7.38.
Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
EUR/CHN Take Your Pick! Bat Gartley Crab3 different harmonic patterns presenting themselves here- the most complete of the 3 being the bullish bat, in red, where each of the main points are bang on so far. Next, in the blue and green, we have a gartley and crab patterns respectively, both also bullish. The latter couple sharing X,A, B AND C levels, with only the PRZ (potential reversal zone) to differentiate the pair. Happy Harmonising!
Bat Ratios:
AB: 0.382-0.5
BC: 0.382-0.886
CD: 1.618-2.618
XD: 0.886
Gartley Ratios
AB: 0.618
BC: 0.382-0.886
CD: 1.272-1.618
XD: 0.786
Crab Ratios
AB: 0.382-0.618
BC: 0.382-0.886
CD: 2.24-3.618
XD: 1.618