EUR/CZK will retest a key resistance lineThe pair will retest a key resistance line after hitting its 88-month low. Bulgaria is now in a waiting game after the country changes its legislation to allow its accession to the eurozone. If the Balkan country fulfilled the requirements for the euro currency adoption, it will be its 20th member. International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva said the adoption will be possible until 2023. Bulgarian Parliament is seeking to adopt the euro at an exchange rate of 1 euro to 1.95583 leva. Economists expect that all the 27 members of the European Union will soon adopt the euro currency. A pro-Brexit website, the BrexitCentral, previously tweeted that member states will need to adopt the euro after 2020. Bulgaria’s decision is the biggest news for the euro after the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on January 31. This will be catastrophic for Czech Krona who saw its value to soar against the single currency in the past few months.
EURCZK
EURCZK: Buy opportunity (long term).The pair is trading within a multi month Rectangle with 25.4100 being the 1M Support. This month 1D has succeeded at pricing a bottom on this support as it stopped the previous downtrend and consolidated (neutral RSI = 44.755, ADX = 16.849, CCI = -10.1188, highs/Lows = 0.0000).
We are taking this as a strong long term buy signal with 25.8300 - 25.9000 as our Target Zone.
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EUR/CZK 1:2 Risk Reward Ratio (potentially more) SHORTEURO pairs have been in a downtrend for quite some time already, while most have had a recent
retracement leaving you thinking that you might have missed out and the wide stop losses arent worth it, its worth looking into more exotic and not as popular pairs that still havent reacted or are yet to touch the critical price points. The entries for this specific trade are quite basic and easy to understand whereas exits you have to be a bit more creative with
Entry : Top of the trendline
TP (1) : At 1:2 Risk Reward Ratio, or 50 Day moving average
TP (2) : The support area marked at the bottom OR below (watch for breakout, if successfully broken keep the trade at your own risk until you determine or see a retracement (1D wick, incredibly oversold RSI etc.)
Stop loss is not based on any pivotal points and is strictly based on reasonable percentage, we're not allowing a lot of room for error because the trade is based solely on the trendline, meaning that if/once its broken, we no longer want to participate/stay in the trade. RSI indicators are also showing overbought.
EURCZK: Sell opportunity on the Descending Triangle.The pair is trading on a year long 1W Descending Triangle with clear Lower Highs that provided optimal sell entries throughout 2019. We are currently on such a Lower High and with 1W neutral (RSI = 52.272, STOCH = 45.628, Williams = -46.569, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) we are targeting the top of the 1D Support zone (TP = 25.62400). Notice how a 1D Higher High sequence (curves) precedes every Lower High rejection on 1W. Similar formation printed in April.
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EUR/CZK 1H Chart: Upside potentialThe Euro has been appreciating against the Czech Koruna since the currency pair reversed from the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel near the 25.40 mark.
Given that the exchange rate is being supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMAs (4H), it is expected that the rate targets the Fibonacci 0.00% retracement at 26.16. Technical indicators for the short run also support bullish scenario.
The general price movement is expected to be upside within the following weeks until the upper channel line near 26.35 is reached.
EUR/CZK 1H Chart: Rising wedge in sightThe Euro has been appreciating against the Czech Koruna after the currency pair reversed from the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel at 25.43.
As apparent on the chart, the rate has been trading in a rising wedge since the end of September. The pair's neat movement in this pattern suggests that its next move should be north towards the Fibonacci 23.60% retracement at 25.94.
The general price movement is expected to be upside within the following weeks until the 2018 high is reached at 26.14.
EUR/CZK 1H Chart: Trades in falling wedgeThe Czech Koruna has been appreciating against the Euro since the beginning of August after the pair reversed from the 2018 high at 26.14. This movement is bounded in a falling wedge.
As apparent on the chart, the exchange rate reversed from the lower pattern line at 25.43. From the theoretical point of view, it is likely that a surge towards the upper boundary of the wedge at 25.63 could happen within following trading sessions.
However, technical indicators suggest this advance might not be immediate. The pair could go down to the weekly R1 at 25.55 during next trading hours.
EUR/CZK 1H Chart: Begins expected surgeThe previous review of the EUR/CZK currency pair was concentrating on the fact that the pair was about to break the upper trend line of a junior descending pattern. It occurred on August 1 and the rate traded sideways in the aftermath of the breaking.
On Thursday, the currency rate stopped the sideways movements and broke past the SMAs, which kept it lower for the past two trading sessions. Namely, the previously expected surge has begun.
Most likely in the future the rate will form an ascending pattern of the same scale as the just broken channel down pattern.
EUR/CZK 1H Chart: Pair remains squeezed The EUR/CZK exchange rate has been trading in a channel-like formation since early 2018. The upper boundary of this pattern was tested on May 1 when the Euro reversed from the 25.75 mark. The pair’s subsequent movement has been downwards until 25.55 where the pair was located at the time of this analysis.
Technical indicators are generally neutral, thus demonstrating that the current movement sideways which has prevailed during the previous two weeks could still dominate the market for a couple of sessions. Technical signals on the daily time-frame, however, are more bearish, thus suggesting that the rate could eventually resume moving lower down to the senior channel around 25.30. The monthly S1 is likewise located near this area.
In case the dashed trend-line and the weekly R1 circa 25.60 are breached to the upside today, traders might see a surge to the opposite channel boundary and the monthly R1 at 25.75.
EUR/CZK Pair stands at resistanceThe common European currency has recently met with the support of a medium scale ascending pattern against the Czech Krona. This event has resulted in the formation of a junior ascending pattern.
On Monday the currency rate was standing just below the resistance of the pattern. In addition, the resistance was strengthened by the 200-period SMA and the monthly pivot point just below the 25.40 mark.
Due to these levels of significance it is expected that the currency pair will break the resistance or fails at an attempt to surge higher and decline. Either way there should be additional momentum.