EURGBP 8H Analysis : Breakdown + Smart Money Structure + Target🧠 Phase 1: Arc Formation – Accumulation by Smart Money
The arc (May to June) reflects an accumulation base where price made higher lows with consolidative wicks and slow momentum, ideal conditions for institutional orders to build long positions.
Liquidity is swept below swing lows, stopping out early longs — this is classic smart money accumulation.
Volume compression during the arc followed by expansion on breakout confirms smart interest.
🔑 Psychology: Retail was likely selling here due to lower highs, while smart money was accumulating quietly at the bottom of the arc.
🚀 Phase 2: Breakout & Rally to Previous Highs
Price cleanly breaks above the arc’s neckline and previous resistance (labeled as Previous Target).
Momentum accelerates rapidly toward the reversal zone, likely due to stop hunts and FOMO buyers entering after confirmation.
Structure shifts bullish, creating strong impulsive candles — but these are often final exit points for smart money.
📌 Key Sign: Breakout aligns perfectly with market inefficiencies being filled, often a sign of a short-term top formation brewing.
🔄 Phase 3 : Reversal Zone – Distribution Phase
Inside the Reversal Zone (0.8650–0.8680), price shows exhaustion with multiple upper wicks and slowing bullish momentum.
Distribution signs: choppy movement, lower highs, and eventual breakdown.
Retail is often caught entering longs here on confirmation, while institutions offload their positions.
🧠 MMC Insight: This is where Mind Market Curve transitions from bullish impulse to corrective leg down — phase of deception.
📉 Phase 4: Structure Breakdown & Bearish Market Behavior
Price breaks through short-term higher low structure — confirmation of bearish intent.
The formation of lower highs and lower lows marks the beginning of a bearish trend shift.
Market is now targeting Major Support (0.8500–0.8520 zone), which is currently being tested.
🧭 If price breaks below 0.8500 with volume and aggression, next level is likely near 0.8430–0.8450.
⚖️ Current Price Location: Major Support Test
We’re at a critical decision point.
If support holds → expect a bounce to 0.8600–0.8620.
If it breaks → expect continuation to next liquidity pool below 0.8450.
This zone is where buyers and sellers will battle. Wait for:
Bullish confirmation (reversal pattern / engulfing candle) to go long.
Bearish breakout (close below zone + retest) to go short.
🔁 Summary of Scenarios
Scenario Conditions Target
✅ Bullish Bounce Rejection at support with bullish engulfing/pin bar 0.8600–0.8620
❌ Bearish Break Close below 0.8500 + retest as resistance 0.8430–0.8450
🔖 Educational Takeaway
This chart teaches how to:
Identify accumulation via arc and understand smart money behavior.
Recognize false confirmation zones (where retail enters late).
Understand structure shift as a trend reversal signal.
Execute trades based on reaction zones, not emotions.
If you follow MMC (Mind Market Curve), this is a textbook transition from:
Accumulation →
Expansion →
Distribution →
Breakdown
